Retirement Behavior Zone

Contributed by: Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD

Let’s face it; market volatility isn’t a whole lot of fun for any investor—unless that volatility is on the upside, of course. When investments experience downward volatility it can be hard on the psyche. In my experience, however, there is one group that is hit especially emotionally hard: those clients that are on either side of two years from their retirement date. While those with long term horizons feel some pain, it is generally muted because the funds are needed in the distant future and it doesn’t seem to bother them as much. Similarly, those that have been in retirement for a while seem to have the “been there – done that” mentality. They have been through volatility before, hopefully have weathered past storms, and understand volatility is part of the process to potentially get fair returns over time.

But how about those within two years, either side, of retirement? Often times, these clients are the most concerned, and rightfully so. The time that folks switch from being a net saver for so many years to a net spender is emotionally challenging in many cases. As former partner Dan Boyce used to say, it feels like you are eating your seed corn. (Full disclosure – this city boy never really understood it but many a client nodded as if to confirm the saying!).

According to research underwritten by Prudential Securities, “economic researchers have found that emotions play a significant role in how people make financial decisions.” At first, my response was a yawn and a hope that Prudential didn’t pay too much for such a conclusion. Fortunately there was more to the study, something with a little more meat on the bone. The study suggests that the five years before and after retirement is critical. That understanding this behavioral risk becomes even more important. Two specific risks cited in the study include sequence risk and behavioral risk.

At the risk of downplaying behavior risk, it is one that we have some control of, after all. Poor investor behavior during this two year of period within retirement can be hazardous to your financial health, for a long time if not forever. What’s the prescription? Yes this is self-serving, but working with a third party professional can help improve investor behavior. Vanguard suggests that behavioral coaching may bring about as much as 150 basis points (or 1.5%) of value add by advisors.

The second risk, sequence risk, is very real and much less controllable. Large negative returns early in retirement can indeed impact one’s retirement years. Fortunately, for many, one large loss year usually isn’t enough to derail years of proper planning. Again, what’s the prescription? In general, utilizing multiple asset classes, multiple investment styles, and multiple managers (aka asset allocation & diversification) provides enough risk parameters to lessen the potential sequence risk. 

If recent volatility has hit you especially hard (emotionally or in dollars) give us a call. If you are a current client we welcome the opportunity to review your portfolio and your plan, and if you are not a current client we welcome the opportunity to provide another opinion.

Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD is the Managing Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and is a contributor to national media and publications such as Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on Good Morning America Weekend Edition and WDIV Channel 4. A leader in his profession, Tim served on the National Board of Directors for the 28,000 member Financial Planning Association™ (FPA®), mentored many CFP® practitioners and is a frequent speaker to organizations and businesses on various financial planning topics.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Timothy Wyman and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Vanguard or Prudential Securities. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. There is no guarantee that using an advisor will produce favorable investment results.

Solutions for Serving Seniors and Vulnerable Older Adults

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

I recently had the honor of speaking on a panel at the IA Watch Compliance Conference in Washington DC on the topic of "Solutions for Serving Seniors and Vulnerable Older Adults.” Conference attendees, who were financial firm owners, compliance officers, and financial advisors in compliance roles, attended the conference to get up-to-speed on industry hot topics such as SEC filing changes, Cyber Security, and, of course, how to best serve their aging client demographic.

The panel consisted of myself, Ronald Long, a Compliance officer from Wells Fargo Advisors, and Michael Creedon, a Gerontologist and Social Worker who writes and speaks on issues related to older adults. As the only financial planner and practitioner in attendance that works directly with clients, I was glad to be able to give practical tips for how to best help clients while continuing long term relationships with client families.

The message of the panel was clear:

No matter what our position, it is our job to best serve clients and their families, and addressing the issues of potential diminished capacity and other long term care issues head-on is the best way to do that.

I hope that presenting at this and other conferences is one more step towards spreading the word on this very important message to advisors in our industry!

Sandra Adams, CFP® is a Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Sandy specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and is a frequent speaker on related topics. In addition to her frequent contributions to Money Centered, she is regularly quoted in national media publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine and Journal of Financial Planning.

Social Security: Calculating your Benefit in 7 Steps

Contributed by: Matt Trujillo, CFP®

When Social Security is concerned, you may find yourself wondering: “How is my benefit calculated?”

To help you understand, I’ve laid out the 7 steps it takes to calculate your Social Security benefit:

• Step 1: Enter earnings from each year into the chart below into Column B. Only enter earnings up to the “maximum earnings” figure from column A. So for instance in 2001 if you earned $200,000 you would only enter $80,400 into column B because that is the maximum credit you can earn for that year. All earnings after $80,400 didn’t pay into social security for that year. For the years you didn’t have earnings or didn’t pay into social security enter $0 into Column B.

• Step 2: Multiply the amounts in Column B by the index factors in Column C and enter the total in Column D. This gives you an estimated value of your past earnings in current dollars. 

• Step 3: From Column D, pick 35 years with the highest amounts and add these amounts together.

• Step 4: Divide the total from Step 3 by 420 (this is the number of months in 35 years); be sure to round down to the nearest whole dollar figure with whatever total you come up with. This figure is your average indexed monthly earnings

• Step 5: Multiply the first $856 from Step 4 by .90; from $857 to $5,157 multiply by .32; and from $5,158 and up multiple by .15

  • This is probably the most confusing part so let me give an example:
    Step 4 average indexed monthly earnings = $8,000; 
    $856 * .9 = $770.40
    $5,157-$857= $4,300 * .32 = $1,376
    $8,000-$5,157= $2,843 * .15 = $426.45

• Step 6: Add all the figures up from Step 5 and round down; if we use our previous example this would be $770.40 + $1,376 + $426.45 = $2,572.85 rounded down would be $2,572.

• Step 7: Multiply the amount in Step 6 by 75%. Whatever figure you get is your estimated monthly retirement benefit if you retire at age 62.

I hope you find these 7 steps useful and easy to navigate. When it comes to retirement planning and Social Security benefits, if you have questions or concerns any of the planners here at The Center are willing and able to help you!  

Matthew Trujillo, CFP®, is a Certified Financial Planner™ at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Matt currently assists Center planners and clients, and is a contributor to Money Centered.

Three Ways to Establish and Improve your Credit Score

Contributed by: Matt Trujillo, CFP®

In a previous blog I discussed how your credit report is composed and what goes into a credit report; I would encourage you to check out to find out how your score is calculated. Now, I want to discuss methods for improving your credit score, if you are unhappy with your current number, and/or establishing credit if you are just getting started.

First, let’s start by establishing how you get credit. If you want to establish credit, you need a regular source of income. The income can be derived from a job, trust fund dividends, government benefits, alimony, investment dividends, or any number of sources. What’s important is that you have some kind of continuing and predictable cash flow. Without regular income, you cannot demonstrate an ability to make regular payments. Establishing a regular source of income is your first step.

Once you have a steady source of income it is time to start applying for credit. If you are just starting out or are looking to repair credit, I recommend starting small. Here is a short list of ideas that you can consider for getting easy access to credit and slowly starting to improve or establish your score.

An overdraft line of credit on your checking account at your bank

• Here is how it works. You have a checking account. You apply for and are granted an overdraft line of credit in the amount of $500. Your checking account balance is $40. You write a check for $75. When the check is presented to the bank for collection, the bank does not return it for insufficient funds. Instead, it credits your checking account in the amount of $100. Now you have a balance of $140 in your account. The bank can honor the $75 check, leaving you with $65 in the account. The bank bills you monthly for the $100. You can repay the $100 all at once, or make minimum monthly payments. You will be charged interest and perhaps a service fee. Although it may not look like a loan, it is. Activity on these accounts is regularly reported by many banks.

Getting a secured credit card

• Many credit issuers offer secured credit cards. A secured credit card provides you with an open line of credit secured by a cash deposit. These types of cards typically come with a high interest rate. Here is how a secured credit card works. You give the credit card issuer a cash deposit. The credit issuer gives you a credit card with a credit limit equal to the cash deposit. You can charge up to the credit limit using the card, and then make monthly payments on the balance. If you fail to make the payments, the credit card issuer uses your cash deposit to cover the unpaid balance. If you make your payments as agreed, you will eventually establish credit (or improve your current score) and qualify for an unsecured credit card. The secured credit card issuer will return your deposit, less any unpaid balance due, when you cancel the account.

Using collateral when applying for new lines of credit

• When you secure credit, you give the lender collateral to back your loan. The risk is reduced for the lender. If you do not pay, the lender can use the value of the collateral to satisfy the debt. Collateral can be anything of value, but usually takes the form of cars or real estate. If you have something of value, but no credit rating, you may be able to acquire credit by offering to post your valuables as collateral.

These are just a few simple and easy ways to either establish credit or improve your credit score in order to build a credit report you are comfortable with.  

Matthew Trujillo, CFP®, is a Certified Financial Planner™ at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Matt currently assists Center planners and clients, and is a contributor to Money Centered.

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Matt Trujillo and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

E-Signature: Fast, Easy, and Accurate

Contributed by: Melissa Parkins, CFP®

Raymond James has recently partnered with DocuSign, so we are now able to send most documents to you for an electronic signature. No more printing, signing, and scanning forms back to us – it can now all be done online! The only requirements are an email address and a text-enabled phone to receive an authentication code needed to access the forms for electronic signature.

Here are the steps to use this new feature:

• You will receive an email from us alerting you that a document is awaiting your signature. Click View Documents to begin.

• In the browser window that opens, verify that the phone number shown for you is correct (if not, contact us), then click Send SMS to send a text message to the phone number listed with your access code.

• Enter your access code, in your email, and click Confirm Code.

• You will be asked to review the disclosure and select the checkbox saying you agree to use electronic signature. Click Continue.

• Click Start to begin the signing process. You won’t be able to add, delete, or modify anything. If you do discover missing or inaccurate information, contact us.

• When you click the first Sign or Initial tag in the document, you will be asked to adopt your signature. Choose whether you want to use a preformatted style or draw your signature in, then click Adopt and Sign to save your signature and return to the document.

• After you are done reviewing the document, click Finish.

For a more visual guide, please visit the E-signature Resources page: http://raymondjames.com/esignature/

We hope you are as anxious to use this new feature as we are. Next time you have to sign a Raymond James document, ask us to send it to you for your E-signature so you can try it out for yourself! 

Melissa Parkins, CFP® is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

A Change to Your American Funds CollegeAmerica 529 Plan

Contributed by: Melissa Parkins, CFP®

If you have 529 Plan(s) with American Funds CollegeAmerica, a change is coming this year that you should be aware of.

What is happening?

On June 24, 2016 your CollegeAmerica 529 account will be transferred out of the custody of American Funds, and into the custody of Raymond James.

What does this mean?

• Better communication, efficiency, and service for you! Raymond James will now hold your CollegeAmerica 529 account assets instead of American Funds.
• Communications about your account will now be more consistent and clear. Statements and tax documents will all come from Raymond James, instead of multiple communications from multiple sources.
• If your 529 account is currently enrolled in systematic purchase plans at American Funds, they will continue without any disruptions or delay. The information will be transferred to Raymond James to continue any automatic transactions that are currently set up.
• Your Raymond James account number for your 529 account will not change. The CollegeAmerica Program will continue to govern your account, but Raymond James will now hold the account.
• The change will not affect the value of your investments, and there will not be any fees for this transfer.

What other information will you be receiving?

• You will receive a letter from Raymond James at the beginning of April with the details of this change. If you have more than one CollegeAmerica 529. You will receive multiple mailings, one for each account.
  • This letter will state that your financial advisor (us) will now be your single point of contact for managing your American Funds CollegeAmerica 529 account. We have always been your main point of contact for these accounts. So you will continue to call or email us with any requests related to your accounts.
• You will receive a statement from American Funds after June 24 reflecting a zero balance, because your investments in the 529 account will no longer be held by American Funds. The statement will show a transfer out of the 529 plan.
• Two year-end statements will be sent for your 529 plan in early 2017: one from American Funds and one from Raymond James. Your year-end statement from American Funds will indicate that the funds transferred out.
• If you had any reportable transactions before June 24, you will receive a 1099-Q tax document from American Funds. If you had any reportable transactions after June 24, you will receive a 1099-Q tax document from Raymond James. These would also both come in early 2017.

In a nutshell, not much is changing from your end. This change will allow us to more timely and efficiently service your 529 accounts, since we will no longer need to go through American Funds for any processing. This means better service to you! Please call us if you have any questions.

Melissa Parkins, CFP® is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

Insurance Basics: How Disability Insurance is underutilized but Critical

Contributed by: Nick Defenthaler, CFP®

As we continue through our insurance basics blog series, we move on to discuss disability insurance.  According to the Social Security Administration, studies have shown that just over 25% of today’s 20 year-olds will become disabled at some point before reaching age 67. Wow! This is a pretty staggering statistic –these odds are far greater than a pre-mature death, which is what life insurance is typically purchased to protect against (see my last Insurance Basics blog on Life Insurance). However, often times when we discuss disability insurance with clients, we find that it’s an area of confusion. Many aren’t even sure if they have coverage or they may believe that Social Security will kick in and be enough. For most of us, especially if you’re in the early stages of the “accumulation mode” of your career, your earnings power, or human capital, is most likely your largest asset both now and into the foreseeable future. A disability can wreak havoc on this “asset” which is essentially why disability insurance is purchased. Let’s look at the basic types of coverage:

Short-term vs. Long-term Disability

Long-term disability typically has what’s known as an “elimination period” of how many days must pass before benefits begin. This is often called the “time deductible” of the policy which in many cases is 90-120 days. Benefits can pay out up until age 65, however, most policies have a stated period of time where benefits would be payable. To help bridge this gap of coverage, a short-term disability policy can come in handy because benefits will usually begin within a week or two of disability and continue for up to one year, although benefits typically last between three to six months. Short-term disability policies can be a great backstop to preserve your emergency cash fund, typically at a fairly reasonable cost. 

Group Coverage

As with life insurance, many employers offer a form of disability insurance to their employees as part of their benefit package. Sometimes the employer will pay for the premium in full and other times the employee will have the option to pay for premiums (fully or partially). You may be asking yourself, “Why would an employee want to pay for the group coverage instead of having the employer foot the bill?”  Great question, with very important ramifications! If the employer pays your premiums in full, the entire amount of your benefit if needed (typically between 50% and 60% of your pay up to certain limits) would be taxable. If you as the employee were paying for the premiums in full and you needed the coverage, benefits paid out would NOT be taxable. If you were only paying a portion of the total premium, say 20%, only 20% of the benefits paid would be non-taxable to you as the employee. The tax treatment of benefits will have a large impact on the net amount of benefit that actually hits your bank account so it’s important to understand who’s paying for what if you have access to a group disability policy at work.

Individual Coverage

As the name implies, individual coverage is purchased by you through an insurance company – the policy is not offered through your employer. A major benefit of purchasing an individual policy is that the coverage is portable. You can take it with you if you change jobs because it’s not tied to your company’s benefit package (most group policies are non-portable). Another advantage (or disadvantage depending on how you look at it), you are paying for the coverage so if benefits are needed, they will not be taxable to you. With an individual policy, you have control over selecting the definition of disability that your policy uses (any occupation, own occupation, etc.) and you’d also have the option to add any additional features to the policy (for an additional cost), known as “riders.”

As you can probably tell, we’re just scratching the surface on disability coverage. As I mentioned, it is often times the most over looked part of a client’s financial plan and coverage types, despite its high probability and significant risk of long-term financial loss.  At minimum, check with your employer to see if group coverage is offered (both long-term and short-term) and consult with your financial planner on whether or not it is sufficient or if additional coverage would be recommended. If you have questions about your current coverage or how you think disability insurance should fit into your financial plan, give us a call!

Nick Defenthaler, CFP® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Nick is a member of The Center’s financial planning department and also works closely with Center clients. In addition, Nick is a frequent contributor to the firm’s blogs.

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Sources: https://www.ssa.gov/planners/disability/

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Nick Defenthaler and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Guarantees are based on the claims paying ability of the issuing company. Long Term Care Insurance or Asset Based Long Term Care Insurance Products may not be suitable for all investors. Surrender charges may apply for early withdrawals and, if made prior to age 59 ½, may be subject to a 10% federal tax penalty in addition to any gains being taxed as ordinary income. Please consult with a licensed financial professional when considering your insurance options. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

A Webinar in Review: Elder Care Planning

Contributed by: Clare Lilek

What do you think of when you hear the term “elder care?” Well Sandy Adams, CFP®, who also has a Masters in Gerontology, thinks about how that term doesn’t exactly explain the type of planning involved and meaning it’s intended to represent. Instead, as Sandy discussed throughout the webinar, she suggests that elder care isn’t about the frail, but instead, it’s about longevity or long life planning for an active and engaged population. Sometimes this can be a sensitive topic, but really it’s about planning contingencies for potential risks as you or a loved one age, in order for that person to retain their dignity and remain in control. Elder care planning emphasizes the social and personal requirements for older adults in order to age in their desired manner.

Sandy emphasized the importance of starting to plan for yourself or your family as early as possible because you don’t want to be in a crisis situation guessing what your parents would have wanted, or perhaps you don’t want to cause your loved ones the stress of making a decision in case of an emergency. Having a well thought out plan with contingencies is the safest and smartest way to successfully age, especially as the “silver tsunami” is looming and the aging population increases and the question of “Who will care for us?” becomes top of mind.

Since these discussions, as important as they are, can be uncomfortable at times to initiate, Sandy provided some helpful tips, as well as resources, to help you start the conversation. Tips included creating a non-threatening environment, engaging the assistance of a professionals (like Sandy herself), including all the family, and having older adults in question do the majority of the talking—it’s their life, listen to what they want! Important topics to discuss are: home maintenance, transportation, and socialization. Sandy suggests framing these conversations using the C.A.R.E. framework: identify the Challenges, think about Alternatives, acknowledge your Resources, and stay true to the overall Experience you or your older parent wants to have.

Overall, Sandy suggests having an open and honest conversation about you and your family’s needs, discuss contingent plans for possible futures, start creating a plan early, and don’t be afraid to enlist the help of a professional team for support and guidance. For more tips on how to go about Elder Care Planning for you or your parents, check out the entire webinar below or feel free to contact Sandy for further guidance.

Sandra Adams, CFP® is a Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Sandy specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and is a frequent speaker on related topics. In 2012-2014 Sandy has been named to the Five Star Wealth Managers list in Detroit Hour magazine. In addition to her frequent contributions to Money Centered, she is regularly quoted in national media publications such as The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine and Journal of Financial Planning.

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Five Star Award is based on advisor being credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR), a FINRA registered representative, a CPA or a licensed attorney, including education and professional designations, actively employed in the industry for five years, favorable regulatory and complaint history review, fulfillment of firm review based on internal firm standards, accepting new clients, one- and five-year client retention rates, non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered, number of client households served.

Any opinions are those of Sandy Adams, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Chinese Stock Market Manipulation

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Since last summer the Chinese government has played a very active role in manipulating their own stock market. Which markets are affected can be very confusing as there are many different exchanges and types of shares that can be purchased.

Chinese Equity Markets: A Tutorial

The Shanghai exchange houses the A share stock market. These are the shares of Chinese companies that are available mostly to domestic Chinese investors (who in most cases are prohibited to invest outside of this market) and institutional investors granted special permission by the Chinese government, denominated in their local currency, the Renminbi. This currency is no longer pegged to just the U.S. Dollar but rather to a basket of currencies. See my colleague, Nick Boguth’s blog regarding the state of China’s Currency.

In contrast, the Hong Kong exchange houses the H share market which is shares of Chinese companies available to investors outside China and can be freely traded by anyone. H shares trade in Hong Kong dollars. In contrast to mainland China, Hong Kong dollars are still pegged to the U.S. Dollar.

B shares, while lesser known than A & H shares, are also available and these are Chinese companies with a face value in Renminbi, but trading in U.S. Dollars on the Shanghai exchange. These are available to foreign investors as well as Chinese investors who have foreign currency accounts.

There has been a huge difference in company prices that trade on both A and H share exchanges and there is no channel to arbitrage this away. A shares ran up coming into the summer of 2015 causing a huge imbalance when compared to the H share market. This means investors in the A share portion of the market were paying far more for a company than investors in the H share market. On the flip side the A shares have declined much more sharply than the H share market as well.

The Pressure in China Picks up

China is nearing the end of incredible growth. It built up far too much capacity and credit. As the economic slowdown in China began to accelerate, volatility in the stock market started to pick up in the middle of 2015 spilling over into our markets here in the U.S. The Chinese government has had to step in to stem the bleeding created by A share sellers. 

A Timeline of Market Manipulation

The government became a buyer of shares on the weakest days and then took even further steps last July suspending the holders of 72% of A share stocks the ability to sell their stock for six months. Investors that held at least 5% of a company’s outstanding stock was simply no longer allowed to sell it. Communism at its best! 

In early January 2016 this ban on sales was set to expire and there was much worry that volatility would come back, which it did. At this point, January 4, 2016, the government put controversial breakers in place to halt trading in case of extreme selling on the A share market, disbanding them only four days later after the widespread panic this caused. They ended up suspending/halting trading twice in this short time. In contrast, H share markets were down also on these days but far less than the A share markets before the halt.

In place of the circuit breakers, China came up with a plan to restrict stock sales again by these large shareholders. At this point a stockholder who owns more than 5% of a company is required to sell shares only through private transactions to help avoid shocks to the market.

With so much intervention we are left wondering if a free market even exists over there and if there ever was one to begin with. Thankfully the selling pressure has slowed and markets both there and here have quieted down a bit. As always though, it will be interesting to watch how events and markets unfold the remainder of this year!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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“The ABCs of China’s Share Markets by Mark Mobius http://www.cnbc.com/id/

http://www.voyagercapitalmgt.com/an-update-on-china/

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-07-09/china-shows-how-to-destroy-a-market

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Opinions expressed in the attached articles are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. All opinions are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Please include: Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

March Madness: How the Tournament Reflects your Investments

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

I usually don’t think about investments when March Madness rolls around, however this year the correlation is hard to get out of my mind. The past year in the markets has mimicked the past year of NCAA men’s basketball. The markets have been volatile since mid-2015 because of China’s shaky economy and the pending rate hike here in the U.S. In August, we watched the S&P 500 drop almost 200 points and investors wondered, “What is going on?!?!” At the same time, the men’s basketball rankings have been more volatile than they ever have been historically. North Carolina owned the #1 ranking title in the preseason, and then was quickly edged out by Kentucky, who got pushed out by Michigan State, then Kansas, then Oklahoma, then Villanova, and finally back to Kansas leaving basketball fans thinking, “What is going on?!?!”

Now it’s March, which means it’s time to fill out your bracket. There are a total of 63 games that will be played to determine the champion. Correctly predicting the outcome of all 63 of those games is about as likely as getting struck by lightning 5 times this year. Warren Buffet, who in the past has offered $1 billion to anyone who filled out a perfect bracket, must have gotten bored with that challenge and instead is offering $1 million every year for life to any of his employees that correctly guess every game in the first 2 rounds correctly (still extremely unlikely). So, what will your strategy be when filling out your bracket?

There is no guaranteed way to make money when investing, just like there is no guaranteed way to pick the final four teams of the tournament correctly. Sure, you can pick the four #1 seeds and hope that they make it to the final four, just like you can look back and pick the 4 investments or securities that performed the best last year and hope that they outperform again this year, but as we all know from the infamous investing disclaimer, “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” In fact, only picking the #1 seeds in the bracket has left you with the correct final four just ONE time in the entire tournament’s history.

So, odds are that you are not going to pick every winner of the tournament. As investors, there is also a slim chance that you pick every one of your investments correctly and every one of them increases year after year. This is why diversification is key—Jaclyn Jackson recently explained this concept in more detail (which can be found here).That is where talking to a NCAA bracket specialist or an investment professional can help. The correct diversification can ultimately help you reach your end goal, no matter who the #1 seed is.

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

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Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.