Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth
We are supposed to know that stocks are risky, but that doesn’t make holding onto them any easier during turbulent times like these. Hopefully this post provides some optimism for anyone invested in stocks, both domestic and international.
What happened if you invested $1 in a stock market after it crashed 20% or more?
I took 15 stock indexes representing the largest economies in the world and found the date when they fell 20% from an “all-time high” like the U.S. markets did this past March. I counted 68 of these drawdowns in Morningstar’s database. Below is the performance of $1 over the 10 years following each drawdown.
This is a hypothetical example for illustration purposes only. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
In this example, blue lines ended positive. Red lines ended negative. $1 invested after a 20% drawdown turned positive 64 out of the 68 times. There were only 4 negative time periods (Hong Kong & Italy in ’73, Brazil & Italy in ’08). In the worst 10 year period, the index was down 28% and ended at $0.72. The best instances returned over 600%, and even all the way up to 1,100%!
The economy is tanking, should I get out of the market?
Every investor has thought about this question at least once, probably multiple times, during his or her lifetime. I’m not going to answer it for you here, because there is no universal answer. Investing is not one-size-fits-all. Time horizon, spending goals, cash flows, risk tolerance, and your entire financial plan will affect the decision. We work with our clients to ensure that they have a plan in place before it is too late. If you are unsure of your plan, or need to create one, feel free to reach out to us by phone, email, or on our social media.
Source: Morningstar Direct. Indexes and dates shown below. Total return, monthly data.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Investing involves risk regardless of the strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Holding investments for the long term does not insure a profitable outcome.
International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility.
Nicholas Boguth is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.
A free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. The MSCI World Index consists of the following 24 developed market country indices: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. With Net Dividends (Total Return Index): Net total return indices reinvest dividends after the deduction of withholding taxes, using (for international indices) a tax rate applicable to non-resident institutional investors who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the United States & Canada. As of June 2007 the MSCI EAFE Index consisted of the following 21 developed market countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. (Total Return Index) - With Net Dividends: Approximates the minimum possible dividend reinvestment. The dividend is reinvested after deduction of withholding tax, applying the rate to non-resident individuals who do not benefit from double taxation treaties. MSCI Barra uses withholding tax rates applicable to Luxembourg holding companies, as Luxembourg applies the highest rates. The MSCI EAFE Index (Europe, Australasia, Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets, excluding the US & Canada. The MSCI EAFE Index consists of the following 21 developed market country indexes: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. The MSCI Hong Kong Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Hong Kong market. With 43 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization of the Hong Kong equity universe. The MSCI Japan Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Japanese market. With 323 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Japan. The MSCI Germany Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the German market. With 59 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the equity universe in Germany. The MSCI United Kingdom Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the UK market. With 96 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in the UK. The MSCI France Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the French market. With 77 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the equity universe in France. The MSCI Italy Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Italian market. With 24 constituents, the index covers about 85% of the equity universe in Italy. The MSCI Canada Index is designed to measure the performance of the large and mid-cap segments of the Canada market. With 89 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in Canada. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index.