Giving Tuesday: What It Is and Why It Matters

Contributed by: Kelsey Arvai, MBA

Every act of generosity counts, and everyone has something to contribute toward making the world a better place. GivingTuesday was created in 2012 with one mission; to start a day encouraging people to do good. Since then, the movement is now global, inspiring hundreds of millions of people to give, collaborate, and celebrate generosity. 

The biggest celebration of generosity, GivingTuesday, is celebrated annually on November 29th. We welcome you to join the movement this GivingTuesday, every Tuesday, or every day - whether it's time, a donation, or the power of your voice in your local community. Check out this video on Three Tax-Savvy Charitable Giving Strategies to learn more.

The Center participates in giving year-round. The Center's Charitable Committee facilitates this framework for giving year-round. Our mission is to contribute time and donations to the following three areas – Financial Literacy, Community Needs (Metro Detroit), and Staff Involvement. 

Below are some of the philanthropic works we have done or plan to do this year. Additionally, The Center offers eligible employees up to two days off with pay per year for engaging in organized volunteer community projects and facilitating involvement in community activities. The Center also encourages employees to make gifts to charities of their choice. Each employee of The Center can request The Center to match their donation up to $100 annually. You can visit Giving Tuesday’s website to learn more about how you can give time, gratitude, or support to positively impact your community and create a better tomorrow.  

Upcoming Events

• Brilliant Detroit – Tuesday, November 1st through TOMORROW, November 30th

• The Charitable Committee is working with BrilliantDetroit to host a toy drive this holiday season! To ensure the success of this drive, we’re doubling down on our efforts. If you donate a toy in the next 48hrs (today, 11/29 or tomorrow 11/30) The Center will make a financial match to your donation! See more details HERE!

• BrilliantDetroit is a nonprofit dedicated to building kid success stories for Detroit families and providing proven, year-round educational programming for students in high-need neighborhoods.

• Baldwin Society – Friday, December 9th

• Center Team Members will help to assemble Holiday Hope Care Packages for low-income seniors.

Past Events

• Gleaners Mobile Grocery - March

  • Jeanette LoPiccolo, Mallory Hunt, Logan Dimitrie, and Tim Wyman volunteered with Gleaners Mobile Grocery to help local seniors in our community.

• Battle of the Brackets – A Center Spinoff Competition - March

  • To celebrate the National Basketball Tournament this year, we set aside our favorite teams and adopted asset classes instead. You may be thinking – that sounds kooky! It is a bit. Our celebration is a mash up of education, some charitable giving, and a bit of friendly competition.

  • Here’s how it works: Our investment portfolios contain mutual funds and ETFs from various asset classes such as U.S. Large Cap Stocks and U.S. Municipal Bonds. The asset classes are our basketball teams. Nick Boguth, our trusted portfolio manager, highlighted 28 different assets classes, then each was selected by a team member and entered into our brackets. The top four winners will receive a donation to their favorite nonprofit organization.

  • To kick off our competition, our amazing team members, Nick Boguth and Jaclyn Jackson led a presentation explaining which asset classes hold the largest concentration of investment dollars and how The Center’s investment team builds client portfolios. Each team member then selected their best guess to “win”. It was a volatile few weeks! Our lucky winners included Sarah McDonell (Real Estate), Matt Chope (Global Macro), Emily Moore (Municipal Bonds), and Raya Chope (U.S. Momentum Stocks). Center for Financial Planning is donating $1,000 total to help support 4 nonprofits of their choosing. Go team!

• Greening of Detroit - April

  • Jeanette LoPiccolo, Gerri Harmer, Logan Dimitrie, and Bob Ingram participated in a tree planting event with Greening of Detroit.

•  Michigan Council of Economic Education - April

  • The Center is delighted to co-sponsor the Michigan Council on Economic Education’s 2022 Personal Finance Challenge as it highlights the importance of making smart personal financial choices and the career opportunities in the financial planning industry.

• Money Smart Week is a national campaign by the Federal Reserve Bank to encourage good financial decision making by individuals and communities through free online education. To show our support for the Money Smart Week campaign, Center for Financial Planning Inc. is excited to co-sponsor the Michigan Council on Economic Education’s 2022 Personal Finance Challenge. High school students from all over the state of Michigan are invited to compete on April 29th. Teams of 3-4 students review a personal finance case study, then provide a presentation of their financial planning advice. The competition occurs before team of judges in-person at the Macomb Intermediate School District on April 29th. The winning team receives a $250 prize and will advance to a national competition.

• Miles for Money – September

  • Center Team Members logged their miles so that a nonprofit of their choice would receive money; a healthy WIN-WIN. For each one mile walked, biked, ran, jogged, etc. The Center donated $2 up to $100 or 50 miles for the month of September.

• Humble Design – October

• Center Team Members work with Humble Design to impact the lives of individuals, families, or veterans emerging from homelessness. Humble Design works to change lives and communities by custom designing and fully furnishing home interior.

Kelsey Arvai, MBA is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She facilitates back office functions for clients.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Kelsey Arvai, MBA and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Raymond James Financial Services Advisors, Inc.

Celebrities That Didn't Have Proper Planning

Contributed by: Matt Trujillo, CFP®

The importance of proper estate planning cannot be overstated, regardless of the size of your estate or your stage of life. Nevertheless, it's surprising how many American adults haven't implemented a plan. You might think that those who are rich and famous would be way ahead of the curve when it comes to planning their estates properly. Yet plenty of celebrities and people of note have passed away with inadequate or nonexistent estate plans.

Michael Jackson

The king of pop died in June 2009 with an estimated $600 million estate. Jackson had prepared an estate plan that included a trust. However, he failed to fund the trust with assets prior to his death — a common misstep when including a trust as part of an estate plan. While a properly created and funded trust generally avoids probate, an unfunded trust almost always requires probate. In this case, Jackson's trust beneficiaries had to make numerous filings with the probate court in order to have the judge transfer assets to the trust. This process added significant costs and delays and opened what should have been a private matter to the public.

Trusts incur upfront costs and often have ongoing administrative fees. The use of trusts involves a complex web of tax rules and regulations. You should consider the counsel of an experienced estate planning professional and your legal and tax professionals before implementing such strategies.

James Gandolfini

When the famous Sopranos actor died in 2013, his estate was worth an estimated $70 million. He had a will, which provided for various members of his family. However, his estate plan didn't include proper tax planning. As a result, the Gandolfini estate ended up paying federal and state estate taxes at a rate of 55%. This situation illustrates that a carefully crafted estate plan addresses more than just the distribution of assets. With proper planning, taxes and other expenses could be reduced if not eliminated altogether.

Source: 2022 Wills and Estate Planning Study, Caring.com

Prince

Prince Rogers Nelson, better known as Prince, died in 2016. He was 57 years old, still making incredible music and entertaining millions of fans worldwide. The first filing in the Probate Court for Carver County, Minnesota, was by a woman claiming to be his sister, asking the court to appoint a special administrator because no will or other testamentary documents were filed. Since Prince died without a will, the distribution of his over $150 million estate was determined by state law. In this case, a Minnesota judge was tasked with culling through hundreds of court filings from prospective heirs, creditors, and other "interested parties." The proceeding was open and available to the public for scrutiny.

Barry White

Barry White, the deep-voiced soulful singer, died in 2003 without a will or estate plan. He died while legally married, although he'd been separated from his second wife for many years and was living with a long-time girlfriend. He had nine children, but because he had not divorced his wife, she inherited everything, leaving nothing for his girlfriend or his children. As a result, a legal battle ensued.

Heath Ledger

Formulating and executing an estate plan is important. It's equally important to review your documents periodically to be sure they're up to date. Not doing so could result in problems like those that befell the estate of actor Heath Ledger. Although Ledger had prepared a will years before his death, several changes in his life transpired after the will was written, not the least of which was his relationship with actress Michelle Williams and the birth of their daughter Matilda Rose. The will left nothing to Michelle or Matilda Rose. Fortunately, Ledger's family later gave all the money to his daughter, but not without some family disharmony.

Florence Griffith Joyner

An updated estate plan works only if the people responsible for carrying out your wishes know where to find these important documents. When Olympic medalist Florence Griffith Joyner died in 1998 at 38, her family couldn't locate her will. This led to a bitter dispute between her husband, Al Joyner, and Flo Jo's mother, who claimed her daughter had promised that she could live in the Joyner home for the rest of her life.

Feel free to contact your team at The Center with any questions about properly planning your estate. We're always happy to help!

Matthew Trujillo, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® A frequent blog contributor on topics related to financial planning and investment, he has more than a decade of industry experience.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Examples used are for illustrative purposes only.

What Goldman Sachs Thinks About Markets: Conference Key Takeaways

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson, CAP®

Due diligence meetings are a core part of the Center’s investment research strategy.  They give us a chance to vet investment strategies for our clients. They also allow us to get data from global financial institutions and industry leaders that most advisors typically don’t have the resources to aggregate themselves. 

This fall, I attended the Professional Investor Forum at the Goldman Sachs Conference Center in New York. The three-day conference highlighted research from the company’s thought leaders about markets and the current economic landscape. 

Here are Goldman’s views on a few questions that have been top of mind for investors.

Q: Are we facing another “Great Recession”?

Investor anxiety is reminiscent of the Great Recession, but the root of market volatility is quite different. Market volatility in 2007-2008 was triggered by unhealthy company fundamentals, particularly in the financial sector. The volatility was micro-driven.

Current market volatility is macro-driven with inflation and fed policy expectations largely dictating the investor experience. Since company fundamentals are relatively healthy, Goldman believes a recession would be shallow – especially compared to the Great Recession.

Q:  What’s going on with equity markets?

Rates and higher bond yields have affected the US equity market. Today, the market trades at around 15 times forward earnings compared to 21 times forward earnings at the beginning of the year. A lot of this compression is coming from high growth companies, particularly “long-duration” tech companies where the valuation of the company is attributable to the earnings that are well into the future. 

The gap between shorter-duration stocks and longer-duration stocks has been very significant in terms of the relative performance. This is a tough environment for long-duration stocks because rates will likely stay high. Companies with more nearer-term visibility on their cash flows are likely to do better in this environment. (There are tech companies with more near-term visibility, so no need to dump all tech from your portfolio.)

Inflation clarity is important because that helps us understand the direction of Federal Reserve policy and interest rate policy. Greater investor confidence about corporate earnings might be the impetus for equity volatility to decline - freeing equity prices to move higher.

Equity markets are figured out when inflation is figured out.

Q: How low can equity markets go?

Goldman Sachs expects the inflation rate to lower and for markets to recover in late 2023. This is how they see the timeline unfolding:

• The Fed will be raising rates several more times this year and early part of 2023.

• At the end of the year, the S&P 500 will likely close somewhere between 3,400 and 3,600, modestly down from the current level.

• Markets will be down in the early part of next year until we see inflation data trending lower.

• Equity market moves higher by the end of 2023.

Note, there is a case to be made for a recession. In a recessionary scenario (where the Fed hikes so much that we move into recessionary territory), Goldman believes we could hit a low of around 3,150, which is meaningfully below where we are now.

Q: When will market volatility lighten up?

Goldman Sachs Economics expects the rate of inflation (as measured by core PCE) to decelerate from close to 5 percent to roughly 3 percent. If that actually happens, they believe equity prices will do okay. Nevertheless, that won’t be clear until sometime in the middle of 2023, so uncertainty will probably continue another six months.

Q:  Where should I be invested?

According to Goldman, we’ve move from a “there is no alternative” or TINA environment to a “there are reasonable alternatives” or TARA environment.

If investors wanted yield they would invest in equities, especially US equities. However, chasing yield through equities leaves the door open to greater risk vulnerability. With interest rates on short-term cash positions starting to approach 4 percent, investors can get an attractive rate of return from an income point of view. In the words of David Kostin, Goldman’s Chief US Equity Strategist, “the idea of pure cash returns pushing almost 4 percent and the expectation that the Fed Funds rate will be somewhere between 4.25 and 4.5 percent by the early part of next year, that would suggest that there are reasonable alternatives (to equities), just on the cash positions alone.”

To be clear, this does NOT mean one should sell all of their equities and buy short-term cash positions. Equity positions in your portfolio should generally align with your strategic allocation. This is suggesting that investors don’t have to take unwarranted risks with over-exposure to equity markets to get yield because there are reasonable alternatives (TARA). Short-term cash positions are one example of this. The key here is that now, investors don’t have to over-do-it with risks when looking for yields.

Fed tightening is a big focus, but other parts of financial conditions are tightening too - higher bond yields, wider credit spreads, stronger dollar, lower equity prices. All of these contribute to tightening financial conditions. The type of companies in the equity market that do well in this environment are companies with stronger balance sheets, companies with higher return metrics, return on equity, return on capital, companies with less drawdown in terms of their share prices, more stable growth in terms of different metrics. In short, “quality” companies are likely to help investors in the uncertain environment of tightening financial conditions.

Jaclyn Jackson, CAP® is a Senior Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Standard deviation measures the fluctuation of returns around the arithmetic average return of investment. The higher the standard deviation, the greater the variability (and thus risk) of the investment returns. Performance of hypothetical investments do not reflect transaction costs, taxes, or returns that any investor actually attained and may not reflect the true costs, including management fees, of an actual portfolio. Changes in any assumption may have a material impact on the hypothetical returns presented. Illustrations does not include fees and expenses, which would reduce returns.

Preparing an Emergency Action Plan

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

Unknowns are a part of all of our lives, and the potential for the big "unknowns" becomes more significant as we age.

It is a best practice to have a full aging plan in place as we go into our retirement years. This includes:

• Where we might consider living as we age;

• Where, how, and whom we would consider having care for us as we age if we need care;

• How we will use our money, and whom it will go to once we are gone; and

• Who will help us with all of this if we cannot manage things as we age

An aging plan should also include an Emergency Action Plan. What is this, you may ask? It is the minimum provisions you should have in place in case an unexpected event occurs. Even if you don't have a full aging plan in place, an Emergency Action Plan is crucial. So, what should be part of an Emergency Action Plan?

• Name Advocates. By this, we mean having your Durable Power of Attorney in place for your financial affairs and your Patient Advocate Designation. If you have no one to name or if your family/friends' advocates need assistance, there are ways to have professional advocates in place to serve or assist (talk to your financial planner to discuss these options).

• Document Your Important Information in Advance. This includes your financial and health information so that your advocates are prepared to serve on your behalf without missing a beat. Our Personal Record Keeping Document is an excellent place to start this process.

• Communicate to Your Advocates that they have been named and verbally communicate your wishes. Your advocates can only make the best decisions for you and carry out your wishes if they (1) know they have been named your advocate and (2) are aware of the decisions you'd like to have made on your behalf.

Planning ahead is the best gift you can give yourself and your family. Having a full aging plan in place, but at a minimum, an Emergency Action Plan can put the pieces in place to allow for decisions to be made on your behalf in the way that you want them to. It can also provide resources for your best interests in your most critical time of need. If you need to put an Emergency Action Plan in place, ask your planner for assistance!

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of Sandra D. Adams and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Retiring in a Bear Market Doesn’t Have to be Scary

Contributed by: Matt Trujillo, CFP®

Retiring in a poorly performing stock market can be scary, but here are some things to consider that may take some of the fear away:

• Bear markets come and go. However, while they are occurring, they are almost always uncomfortable for investors.

• Since 1950 there have been ten bear markets (defined as a 20% drop in major U.S. stock market indexes).

• Fortunately, as proven by history, they are also temporary.

• Investors can often weather the storm without changing their investment allocation much at all.

• If you are compelled to make changes, do so incrementally – avoid panic selling and major reallocations if you can. Patience can pay off since there is usually a bull market in the not-too-distant future!

Source: First Trust

It is also important to make sure you meet with your advisor at least once a year to review your circumstances and ensure your cash needs will be met for the next 24 months. You should also always be reviewing your asset allocation to make sure whatever cash needs are on the short-term horizon are set aside in more safe and stable investments. It would help if you also had some growth assets so your principal could keep pace with inflation and maintain purchasing power over time.

Our team at The Center is always here for any questions or concerns you may have. Please reach out to us anytime; we're happy to help!

Matthew Trujillo, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® A frequent blog contributor on topics related to financial planning and investment, he has more than a decade of industry experience.

The information contained in this letter does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Matt Trujillo, CFP®, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability.

The Largest Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment In Over 40 Years!

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™

It has recently been announced that Social Security benefits for millions of Americans will increase by 8.7% beginning in January 2022, making this the highest cost of living adjustment since 1981. The increase is calculated based on data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, from October 1st, 2021, through September 30th, 2022. Inflation has been a point of concern and received a great deal of media attention this year, so this increase comes as welcome news for Social Security recipients who have received minimal or no benefit increase in recent years. 

In past years, the Medicare Part B Premium has often eaten away at the Social Security increase. In 2023, however, the base Part B Premium is being reduced by $5.20 to $164.90. This premium, however, can be increased based on income from the recipient's 2021 tax return. 

The Social Security taxable wage base will increase in 2023 from $147,000 to $160,200. This means that employees will pay 6.2% of Social Security tax on the first $160,200 earned, which translates to $9,933 of Social Security tax. Employers match the employee amount with an equal contribution. The Medicare tax remains at 1.45% on all income, with an additional .9% surtax for individuals earning over $200,000 and married couples filing jointly who make over $250,000. This is unchanged from 2022. 

For many, Social Security is one of the only forms of guaranteed fixed income that will rise over the course of retirement. The Senior Citizens League estimates that Social Security benefits have lost approximately 33% of their buying power since 2000. This is why, when working on running retirement spending and safety projections, we factor an erosion of Social Security's purchasing power into our client's financial plans. If you have questions about your Social Security benefit or Medicare premiums, we are always here to help!

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Q3 2022 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

2022 has brought steadily worsened news weighing on both stock and bond markets for three consecutive quarters. The Russia/Ukraine conflict, higher gas and commodity prices, a strong U.S. dollar, China's zero covid policy, supply chain disruptions, high inflation, rising interest rates, a minimum effective corporate tax rate, recession fears, and Cryptocurrency crashes have all wreaked havoc on investor sentiment. According to the AAII investor sentiment survey, as of 9/30/22, investors were only ever more bearish at four points in the history of the reading (8/31/1990, 10/19/1990, 10/9/2008, and 3/5/2009). "Unusually high bearish sentiment readings historically have also been followed by above-average and above-median six-month returns in the S&P500."

Raymond James recently wrote regarding severe recessions, "Recessionary bear markets have historically contracted 33% on average over a 13-month span. We are already down 24% (as of 9/29/2022) over nine months. Timing an absolute bottom is extremely difficult when uncertainty and volatility runs high. The index often capitulates at the bottom, reaching a low in sharp fashion for a very quick period, with very rapid recoveries. On average, the S&P 500 is up 16% in the first 30 days of a recessionary bear market bottom." This type of snap-back rally is particularly important to participate in for the success of a long-term investment strategy and is extremely difficult to try to time. We encourage investors to remain patient and trust in the financial planning process that plans for times like these to occur. Asset allocation, diversification, and rebalancing remain core tenets of our process during these times.

The FED is making up for lost time

The Federal Reserve continues to aggressively raise interest rates with an additional rate hike of .75% in September, making it the third consecutive .75% rate hike in a row (June and July). I believe The Federal Reserve feels guilty for letting inflation get out of hand and not responding quickly enough, so they are taking aggressive action now and signaling that they will continue to do so until they see improvement. Inflation resulted in less reduction than was hoped for by markets in September. So, the Fed is not resting on the hope that inflation will come down on its own; instead, they are taking aggressive action to force it down. They have decided to proactively fight it in the form of higher rates by year-end nearing 4.3% (another roughly 1-1.25% increase from where we are now). 

Policy adjustments need to happen with an eye toward future economic conditions, not current ones. The FED action in September is aggressive enough that if we continue along their anticipated path, it suggests there could be trouble for the economy ahead. It is likely that this intensified upward push will start to slow the economy, sending us into a recession, or what many are calling a hard landing now. This is why markets reacted so strongly to the downside for the last half of September.

Inflation

Inflation is starting to come down, and it is just not coming down as fast as the Federal Reserve (not to mention consumers) would like. Gasoline prices have continued their downward trend since peaking in June of this year. While that has helped curtail inflation, it is a lagging effect. Housing prices and food are the most troublesome components now. With mortgage rates catapulting to the 7% range on a 30-year fixed market, many people are getting priced out of the housing market. This means housing prices will likely start to decline, meaning less pressure on inflation in the coming months. Check out the video portion of our commentary for more in-depth information!

Bonds, Certificates of Deposits, and Treasuries are in style again!

Just as equities have experienced a tough year, bonds have also shared their own headwinds. With interest rates increasing rapidly this year, bond prices have come down and affected performance. But bond yields are finally paying some pretty attractive rates, and the yield on bond holdings is rising. Some might ask: "If rates are up, why is my brick-and-mortar savings account still yielding only .13% on average?” Banks are slow to adjust the interest they are paying because they have ample cash on hand to lend out (not to mention borrowing has all but dried up at these higher rates). So they do not need to pay you higher rates to attract you to deposit more money.  

Russia

For the moment, there is a lot of uncertainty in Europe from the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Putin is a wild card, as we do not know when and how he will strike out on any given day. It seems like he should gradually be getting weaker, but we do not know how long this conflict will continue. If there is a policy change or leadership change in Russia, international markets could be in a much better situation. 

Strength of the U.S. Dollar

High inflation and high-interest rates to fight the high inflation have strengthened the U.S. Dollar versus most other currencies worldwide. Our strong currency means importing goods from the rest of the world is cheaper. However, there are drawbacks to a stronger currency for companies that source revenue from overseas. On-shoring the profits from foreign currencies back to the U.S. dollar acts as a tax (on top of the new minimum tax rate imposed recently by the administration) to the corporation that must do so, meaning less profits. Following is a chart of how much the U.S. dollar has strengthened this year versus the Yen, Pound, and Euro.

Source: Raymond James

Recession Fears

Still, no one has officially declared that the U.S. is in a recession. Two-quarters of negative GDP (both of which happened in the first and second quarters this year) is the traditional definition of a recession. Politics and mid-term elections coming up will impact whether or not we will hear recession rhetoric out of Washington, but the definition is pretty clear. The National Bureau of Economic Research officially calls a recession here in the U.S. It weighs jobs, manufacturing, and real incomes when assessing whether or not we are in a recession and not just real GDP, so this is important information to watch.  

What if we are in a recession?

The average drawdown for the S&P 500 for past mild/moderate recessions (as opposed to severe recessions in the statistic above) has been 24%, which is almost exactly where we ended the quarter. 

We also had already hit this level in mid-June before the recovery experienced through the remainder of the summer. Leading into this year's drawdown, we took several actions in portfolios, including rebalancing (since equities had such a strong run in the second half of 2020 and 2021), adding a real asset strategy to help hedge potential inflation, and shortened duration on the bond portfolio. If cash was needed in the coming 12 months, it was raised. 

Staying calm in the face of daily market volatility is not always easy. That is why we are here to help. If you are anxious, never hesitate to contact us with your questions!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Are You Prepared to Handle Your Parents’ Estate?

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

Clients are increasingly facing the grueling task of handling their parents' financial affairs after their deaths. If their parents worked with professional advisors over their lifetimes, it's very likely that the task of handling the financial affairs and settling the estate can be a relatively straightforward process. However, many clients come to me asking for help with situations in which their parents didn't have things in order and don't know where to start.

What kinds of things are they finding?

Accounts at multiple institutions, sometimes cash accounts, sometimes investment accounts and/or direct stock accounts. We call this "diversification by location" — it did nothing to diversify the actual investment portfolio; it only spread the assets to different providers and custodians, making it that much more difficult for the executor after death to get a handle on the assets.

Accounts with registrations and beneficiaries that haven't been updated. Perhaps Dad passed away ten years ago and your parents had a joint account. Now, Mom has passed away and as you go to settle her estate, you find that there are accounts with both names still on them (Joint accounts that now have two deceased persons on them) or accounts in your Mom's name that still have your Dad listed as the beneficiary. This is not impossible to unravel but can certainly take some time (and paperwork) to get sorted out!

Physical stock and bond certificates. Huh!?! Yes, there are still clients, mostly older, holding physical stock and bond certificates. In many cases, the actual shares had been deposited in an account at a broker-dealer or with a stock transfer agent in a dividend reinvestment program in the past. The trick here is now trying to determine whether the stock certificate is representative of actual shares, if the shares are held elsewhere, or if they were sold at some time in the past and no longer exist. If there are no notes or records that are attached to the certificate, and you cannot track the stock in any of the other investment account holdings, you now need to become somewhat of a detective.

Stock certificates for companies that no longer exist. The same goes for stock certificates showing up for companies that you no longer recognize. Likely, these companies have changed names, merged, or been bought out by other companies. Again, it takes some detective work to find out what happened to the company and whether the "new" company is still something your parent's estate may hold or if it's something that was sold throughout the years.

Collectibles. Signed baseballs. Gold and silver coins. Jewelry. Novelty Collectibles. Rare guns. China. Any and all of these items and so many more are things that clients find in their parents' homes when they're cleaning them out to sell. The difficult part here is that many family members no longer want to keep these things as family heirlooms to pass on from generation to generation. So, there's a need to sell them and pass on the cash. Given that, as the executor, finding the right people and places to provide an accurate value for these types of items can sometimes be a challenge.

Parents' Home. This can often be a challenging situation. Many issues often surround the issue of the home — financial, emotional, and otherwise. If there was no kind of deed (Quit Claim Deed or Lady Bird Deed) in place to provide who the home was to go to or it was not named in a Trust, ownership is likely directed by the Will and the probate court system. One of the biggest processes is going through the home to make sure to find any important documents and valuable family heirlooms. Once those items are removed, there's a process of determining what other items should be kept to be given to family members, what should be donated, what should be recycled, and what should be thrown out. There's another category for families interested — what can be sold in an estate sale — if you feel that there are items of value and are willing to go through the process. The good news is that there are companies willing to be hired to help you do all of that — and they're well worth their price in gold! And once that's done, there's still the process of selling the house, which can be a process of its own.

Are you overwhelmed yet with what you could be facing? We haven't even talked about all of the paperwork there could be. For every account held at every provider, broker-dealer, bank, and insurance company, there's a different set of paperwork that likely requires either a copy or an original death certificate and other documentation. This can include documentation proving your authority to sign and the capacity in which you're serving to represent your parents' estate. And if you're still working (not retired, when this could be your full-time job for the next several months), it could even be more challenging to find the time to get all of this done without the help of professional assistance.

So, what can you do to prevent being in this situation if you're not already there?

Have difficult conversations with your parents about their current financial and legal affairs. Let them know that it would be helpful to understand how their estate is set up and how their financial affairs are structured to ensure that things will be simple and easy to handle as they age. (You can always tell a story about a friend who had to handle things for their parents and struggled because they weren't in order, and you don't want your family to struggle in the same way).

Bring in the help of professionals if and when needed. An estate planning attorney to update documents. A financial advisor to help simplify, organize and put a comprehensive financial and aging plan in place. And both are excellent resources when it comes time to handle your parents' estate —both can provide guidance with steps, help with paperwork, and provide resources as you go through the process.

If you or someone you know is expecting to need to handle their parents' estate in the near future and wants assistance in getting things in order proactively, guiding them to work with professional advisors can be your best advice.

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

Any opinions are those of Sandy Adams, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. ® Center for Financial Planning, Inc. ® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Time to File the FAFSA!

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™

Just as parents and students are getting back into the groove of another school year, it's already time to start thinking ahead! The Free Application for Federal Student Aid, better known as the FAFSA, opened for the 2023-2024 school year on October 1. The form helps determine financial aid eligibility for both current and prospective students. Although this is a federal application, it may also be used to apply for many state loans, grants, and scholarship programs.

A New Format

This is the first year a new, shortened version of the FAFSA is being released. The number of questions has been reduced from 108 to 36! Applicants will also be asked to select their role when completing the application. The options are parent, student, or preparer. The Asset Protection Allowance (APA) amount has been effectively reduced to zero, meaning that parental or student assets will be considered more heavily when completing the FAFSA. However, this isn't a shock as the APA has steadily been reduced over time, drifting from $21,400 in 2009 for a single-parent home to $2,500 in 2021 and now officially hitting zero. 

The sooner, the better!

A large portion of available funds is distributed on a first-come, first-served basis, so the earlier you file the FAFSA, the more money is available for loans and grants. While you have until June 30, 2023, to file the FAFSA for the 2023-2024 school year, most state and school deadlines differ. It doesn't matter whether a school has accepted a student at the time of filing. You'll need to elect at least one college to receive the application information, but you can add multiple schools in which you may be interested.

What information do I use?

For the 2023-2024 school year, the FAFSA will use 2021 tax return information. For dependent students, you will need financial information for at least one parent. If your parents are married and/or living together, income and assets for both will be considered. If the parents are divorced and living separately, the custodial parent's information will be reported (whomever the child lives with the majority of the time).

Regardless of the parent's marital status or the student's dependent or independent status, be prepared with W-2s, financial account information, and a 2021 tax return. Even if you don't think you'll qualify for aid, it's important to file the application. Some schools will only consider students for scholarships if they have filed the FAFSA.

Bigger Changes on the Horizon

This October's FAFSA changes were supposed to be more far-reaching than simply a shortened format. In June of 2022, however, it was announced that the rollout of several other changes would be delayed until the 2024-2025 school year (release date of October 2023) to allow more time for technology updates. These changes should provide increased access to Pell Grants (provided to those with exceptional financial need) and reduce the portion of parental or student income expected to pay for school costs.

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC® and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Caregivers Try to Balance it All

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

The month of September is host to a slew of recognition for caregivers: World Alzheimer’s Day, National Daughter’s Day, Intergeneration Month, and Self-Care Awareness Month.

According to the National Institute on Aging, there are an estimated 11 million unpaid family caregivers in the United States for patients with dementia, including the most prominent form of the disease, which is Alzheimer’s disease. More than one in four Alzheimer’s and dementia caregivers are “sandwich generation” caregivers —they are caring for someone with dementia AND caring for a child or grandchild at the same time. And according to the Alzheimer’s Association, over two-thirds of caregivers are women with nearly 50% looking after at least one parent or parent-in-law. The need for self-care for these family caregivers – often women and often working – is real.

We would all love to believe that, given the opportunity, we would embrace serving as a caregiver for our loved ones — that we would treat the opportunity as “a gift.” In the book Working Daughter: A Guide to Caring for Your Aging Parents While Making a Living, by Liz O’Donnell, the author says:,

Caregiving didn’t feel like a gift to me. It felt like a burden—a burden I didn’t want and one that I wasn’t prepared to handle. I had no warning, no training, and no support. I didn’t realize how many other people I knew were also caring for sick and/or elderly parents. No one in my circle of friends or coworkers was talking about it. As a working mother, I had so many people and resources to draw on for help and advice about everything from how to get a child to sleep to how to balance parenting and career. As a working daughter, I felt alone. And among the few people I knew who were family caregivers, no one was complaining about it. Just me. They must all agree it’s a gift, I thought to myself. I am a horrible, selfish person for thinking it’s a burden.

The reality is that what Liz expresses is not unique. According to a 2017 CNBC report, of the millions of family caregivers out there, almost 60% (58% to be exact), classified the burden of caregiving to be high or moderate. For those caregivers also working and/or raising young families, the percentage is likely to be higher. That feeling of “burden” is likely to lead to stress and feelings of guilt (guilt for feeling the job is a burden and guilt that you are not doing your best at any of your jobs).

Caregivers, for the most part, keep their feelings isolated. They don’t want others to see that they don’t appreciate the opportunity they have to spend this time caring for their loved ones. As a result, they suffer in silence and don’t reach out for help — for themselves or for the resources they need. They may miss out on resources available in the community to provide relief (adult day programs, volunteer programs through local senior programs, Area Agency on Aging programs, Meal Programs, transportation programs, caregiver support programs, etc.). If the caregiver is afraid to admit they need help, they may never know of the programs available to provide relief and assistance.

In addition to bringing awareness to caregiver-specific emotional and psychological struggles, September is the perfect time to bring attention to the financial planning issues that surround caregivers and how these can be addressed.

According to AARP, family caregivers spend an average of 24.4 hours caring for their loved ones in addition to their other responsibilities. For working caregivers, especially women, this means making accommodations to their work to meet the demands of their caregiving roles:

• Requesting a less demanding job 

• Taking unpaid leave 

• Giving up working entirely 

• Taking early retirement

As a result of work accommodations, the result of future wages, according to the AARP Policy Institute (2018) is $324,044 in future wages for women and $283,716 in future wages for men. In addition to wages, health insurance, retirement savings, pension benefits, and Social Security benefits are lost to those who cut back or stop work due to caregiving duties. For those who were on an advanced career track, losing upward momentum by having to slow down or stop work can have a significant impact on future advancement AND wages. And for women, who are typically already behind men in earnings, slowing down or stopping work due to a caregiving role can put them even farther behind their male counterparts. Compound that with the fact that women will potentially live longer, and live longer alone (be widowed), and they’re in a “no win” situation.

Action steps for working women who are also caregivers:

•  Plan ahead as much as possible before the caregiving duties begin. Make sure those you will be caring for have a solid financial and care plan and that as many resources as possible are put in place in advance. 

• Work with your employer to see what arrangements can be made for flexible schedules, paid leave, etc., in order to keep you employed while being able to accommodate your caregiving duties with the least disruption to all areas of your life.

• Make sure you utilize all of your resources, including other family members, caregiver support, and self-care.

• Work with your own financial adviser to plan for the possibility of caregiver duties and consider what different scenarios might look like for your own plan. Look out for your own financial security, as well as for your loved one’s caregiving needs.

Caregivers have a big challenge. They try to do it all and do it all flawlessly — which might not be possible. Create a balanced life where everyone is safe and futures are secure. Planning ahead as much as possible is key to making this happen. Don’t try to do it alone!

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

Securities are offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc., is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Any opinions are those of Sandra D. Adams, and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design), and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete the CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.