For investors with long time horizons, these moments may serve as great entry points, especially if you have additional dollars to save. For those who depend on their assets, we have an action plan in place that was developed long before this volatility began. The thoughtful planning work we do with you helps ensure you have what you need for the next 6 months, a year, or even two years, already in cash or money market, which means you don’t have to sell into market volatility.
Federal Reserve and Interest Rates
The Federal Reserve (The Fed) has faced political pressure to cut interest rates while it navigates stubborn inflation, a weakening labor market, and the economic consequences of the war in Iran. The Fed opted to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% through its January and March meetings, even as oil‑price spikes linked to Middle East conflict complicated its inflation outlook. It is important to remember that the Fed focuses on core PCE, which strips out inflation pressures from energy and food because they are typically so volatile. Inflation fears and concerns that the Fed could raise short-term interest rates have picked up again amid the spike in oil prices. I think we all immediately remember the 1970s era of inflation when we hear that oil is getting expensive and start to worry. As of now, this spike has been short-lived, and if the Straits of Hormuz reopen soon and oil starts moving again, we should see oil prices start to come back down. Short-term spikes usually don’t flow through to core PCE inflation in a meaningful way. However, if oil remains scarce and prices remain high, you will start to see the higher energy costs leak through to other areas of the economy, which would then be reflected in higher core PCE.
The bond market immediately jumped to the conclusion in March that the latter would happen, and the Fed would be staring at rising inflation numbers, and then further assume the Fed would start raising interest rates again to combat this inflation. We think it is far too early to assume this will happen. We entered the year with bond and equity markets pricing in 1 or 2 rate cuts by the end of this year, and now the market is pricing in a rate increase before year's end. This change in expectations is why bonds have had a negative month of returns. However, it is important to note that this isn’t the start of a 2022 bond market again. Now we are starting from a place of much higher yields, and we still have a robust interest rate being paid to us every month to compensate for some volatility.
Despite market assumptions, Fed officials continue to project one rate cut later in 2026, but internal disagreement continues, and if Kevin Warsh is confirmed by the Senate to take over in May, opinions could shift. It is important to remember that no single person sets this policy. There are 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) who determine the fate of interest rates. The Chairman is simply the public representative of this board, and the chairperson only has 1 vote like everyone else and has no veto power.
At the same time, political pressure from President Trump on the Fed continues, as he publicly called for an immediate rate cut amid market volatility driven by war. Chair Jerome Powell, nearing the end of his term, emphasized that the Fed is still assessing the impact of the Iran war, elevated oil prices, and mixed economic data, and warned that the path ahead remains deeply uncertain. With leadership transitions approaching and geopolitical risks rising, the Fed’s next move remains far from clear—fueling market anxiety and adding to the perception that 2026 has become one of the most unpredictable years for Fed policy in over a decade.
Long Term Versus Short Term Interest Rates and Mortgage Rates
While the Fed does set interest rate policy, it is important to remember that it only sets short-term rates. Intermediate and long-term interest rates are driven more by supply and demand. Many have hoped that lower short-term rates would equate to lower mortgage rates. While rates have come down over the past 9 months, they have recently (in March) drifted back upward, causing new home buyers to pause. Earlier this quarter, 30-year mortgages had fallen below 6%, but they have drifted back to the mid-6 % range, nearly halting mortgage applications.
Private Credit Fears
Over the past few years, we have gotten many questions on private credit. We are constantly kicking the tires on different investment opportunities and trying to understand if they deserve a spot in your portfolio. The allure of 10%+ interest rates and little volatility sounded very tempting, but it was the first red flag in our review. Limited liquidity also had alarm bells swirling in our heads. Usually, if something sounds too good to be true, it often is. Private credit is no exception. Many dove in, thinking there would be little volatility and a great income stream. The problem with a limited liquidity product is just that, you usually can’t access your money when you most want it. As there were notable headlines about private credit borrowers, these private credit funds faced many redemption requests that they could not fulfill. Imagine wanting to sell an investment and being told no. That fear then starts to snowball, and more investors request redemptions, snowballing the issue and the headlines. We recognized this product for what it is: for high-net-worth investors with very long time horizons who can wait out redemption limitations without needing the cash. Even then, they aren’t guaranteed to pay you a premium investment return. The headlines are likely to continue escalating around these products as barriers to selling persist and securities in the portfolios are marked down to their actual values.
Artificial Intelligence
A.I. news continues to drive headlines and move markets. Companies that are driving the technology forward continue to share new developments and innovations that can be both exciting AND nerve-wracking. There is no shortage of opinion pieces predicting what the future holds for the technology, ranging from “minor” to “world-changing”. This uncertainty has shown up in financial markets, as there is some dispersion in stock prices lately. Not everything is moving in unison…which is healthy! We would not want to see dot-com bubble-era behavior, where any stock that mentioned A.I. was immediately rewarded. Certain companies’ stock prices have fallen following announcements of large A.I. spending plans, while others have reacted positively. Demand for “chips” is driving strong earnings expectations in the semiconductor industry, but there is concern about circular spending, where companies are just paying each other back and forth, and that may not be sustainable. There has also been some major volatility among individual stock names as competitive moats come under attack from A.I. Utilities and commodities are affected as “datacenter” plans with mind-blowing power needs continue to develop.
This is a major theme that affects many parts of the market. With any innovation, uncertainty follows, and all investors can do is invest accordingly. As far as our portfolios go, we continue to monitor valuations and expectations for the stocks and bonds that are directly affected. This quarter's volatility has actually made valuations more attractive. We get the question, “Is this a bubble?” a lot…and we just don’t see it across the whole market. Sure, there might be individual companies trading at extreme valuations, but it certainly isn’t across the entire market. It might surprise you to hear that, for example, Microsoft ended the quarter in a 31% drawdown from its prior high! It is one of the largest holdings in the S&P 500, but due to performance in other sectors, the index was still only down ~4% in Q1. To us, that is yet another example of diversification (in this case, sector diversification within the S&P 500) leading to better outcomes for investors.
Tariff Update
Trump’s tariffs were another source of volatility in the first quarter. The Supreme Court ruled that a portion of Trump's tariffs, the ones imposed on specific countries, were unlawful. Trump’s initial justification for imposing those tariffs as a national “emergency” did not hold up in the Supreme Court, so those tariffs were removed. He immediately responded to this ruling by imposing new temporary tariffs of 10%, then later 15%. Ultimately, this is a fluid situation that is adding to the uncertainty in the stock and bond markets. Companies have to navigate pricing and supply chain issues arising from tariff uncertainty, and there is still the lingering question of whether tariff refunds will be paid out.