Second Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Ever heard of the Chinese curse?  “May you live in interesting times.”   We certainly have the interesting part covered this year! 

Voters are showing that around the world they are fed up with the status quo. Donald Trump became the presumptive nominee as the republican candidate for President of the United States while David Cameron, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, announced he will be stepping down after the UK voted to leave the European Union. 

Unfortunately, “interesting” usually translates to volatility in the markets and this quarter has been no exception. With the S&P 500 up 2.46% for the quarter and 3.84% as of June 30th for the year, the ride has not been as smooth as it may appear on the surface especially during the last trading week of the second quarter.

Brexit

An affirmative vote for the UK to leave the EU, or Brexit, caused a couple of days of uncomfortable downside volatility, but it did not last long. The media has a hay day with these “interesting” events and we find ourselves having to sift through the hype to dig into what an event really has to do with our portfolios. 

Let’s put some perspective around this. The United Kingdom only represents about 4% of the world’s GDP compared to the U.S. contributing 22% according to the World Bank’s Gross Domestic Product figures for 2015. In fact, the separation could take two years, after they invoke an agreement called article 50, to iron out the details and in the end may not even harm the world’s economy.  Article 50 must be invoked by the Prime Minister and likely won’t be done until later this year after David Cameron is replaced. 

The point here is that all is yet unknown and Brexit will certainly continue to cause headlines on occasion over the coming years as well as short term potential volatility. 

Overall, this should not impact long term returns in a significant way for most asset classes outside of the UK, and therefore we aren’t recommending a change to a diversified long-term investment strategy.   Our international holdings remain spread around the world and there are no outsized positions within the UK. These periods of short term volatility may be viewed as buying opportunities for our international portfolio managers.

Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve voted to stay their hand at the June meeting and did not raise interest rates again but left an opening to possibly raise rates at the July meeting. Economic data has come in at its continued slow growth trajectory while inflation has been benign causing the lack of interest rate increases by the Fed. The Fed was also concerned about the Brexit vote occurring one week after their meeting and this may have caused them to hold off as well. 

Bond markets remind us once again why it is important to hold them within a diversified portfolio. As volatility picks up they rarely fail to cushion our overall portfolio returns and this quarter has been no exception with the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index up 2.21%.

Your Plan and Portfolio

While interesting times may lead to volatility you can bet that some portions of your portfolio may outperform others in any year.  At the Center, we monitor the allocation of your portfolio on a regular basis.  When volatility presents an opportunity to rebalance we will act on your behalf or notify you if a change is needed.  Adding money to your portfolio, managing positions, and tax loss harvesting are some of the strategies that we can take advantage of during periods of volatility. We also anticipate future cash needs so funds are available regardless of market returns.

Here is some additional information we want to share with you this quarter:

Checkout Investment Pulse, by Angela Palacios, CFP®, summarizing some of the research done over the past quarter by our Investment Department.

Investors often avoid that which they don’t understand despite the diversification or return benefits an asset class may provide. Check out Investor Ph.D .

This month Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, delves into the equities with a primer on investing in common and preferred stocks.

Jaclyn Jackson, Investment Research Associate, discusses some important developments for the Real Estate Investment Trust asset class.

We strive to keep you informed! You may tune in to our webinars for market updates (there is one coming up soon, Summer Market Update: Staying cool while markets are turbulent. Click here for information and to register). These are meant to supplement your conversations with us so don’t hesitate to reach out any time you have questions or concerns. Thank you for placing your trust in us!

Sincerely,
Angela Palacios CFP®
Director of Investments

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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Please note that all indices are unmanaged and investors cannot invest directly in an index. An investor who purchases an investment product which attempts to mimic the performance of an index will incur expenses that would reduce returns. Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500): Measures changes in stock market conditions based on the average performance of 500 widely held common stocks. Represents approximately 68% of the investable U.S. equity market. US Bonds represented by Barclay’s US Aggregate Bond Index a market-weighted index of US bonds. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Please note, changes in tax laws may occur at any time and could have a substantial impact upon each person's situation. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility.

Investor Ph.D. Series: ADRs, and REITs …Oh My!

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Dorothy risked everything and traveled into the unknown when going into the haunted forest on her quest to return to Kansas.  At the Center, we prefer to walk in with our eyes wide open. Our Investment Department and Investment Committee conducts thorough research before recommending securities for your portfolio. Investors and advisors tend to stick with what they know when building their portfolios. In doing so, they can overlook opportunities to potentially increase returns or add diversification.  In other cases, investors may jump into less familiar asset classes at the wrong time.

In this installment of Investor Ph.D. we want to take you beyond just investing in domestic equity and preferred securities explained by Nick Boguth. Following are some assets we have considered that may not be at the forefront of your mind.

REITs

REITs or Real Estate Investment Trusts can offer the benefits of diversification, income stream and capital appreciation to an equity portfolio. A REIT is a company that owns income producing real estate. REITs can trade similarly to a stock traded on a stock exchange and be highly liquid or they can be private, non-liquid investments. They pay out all or most of the income they receive from their properties as dividends to investors and, in turn, investors pay the taxes on those dividends. Typical REITs can own commercial or private real estate including apartments, shopping malls, hospitals, hotels, nursing homes, industrial facilities, infrastructure, offices, student housing, storage centers, and timberlands.

A REOC or Real Estate Operating Company is similar to a REIT. The distinction that separates them is a REOC will take the earnings and income streams from their investments and reinvest into the business rather than paying it out to the shareholders. An investor would not expect an income stream from this type of investment, only capital appreciation.

ADRs

ADRs, or American Depository Receipts, are shares of a foreign company that trade on an American stock exchange. ADRs make investing in foreign securities much easier than having to factor in currency exchanges, costs, and logistics of trading on a foreign stock exchange. A bank purchases a block of shares from the foreign company, bundles them, and reissues on a domestic exchange denominated in U.S. dollars. The U.S. investor avoids foreign taxation while the foreign company enjoys increased access and availability to the wealthy North American markets. Once the ADR is listed on the U.S. stock exchange its price is driven by supply and demand. This can result in pricing of the security here to not follow exactly the pricing of the security in its home market. When this happens there is an arbitrage opportunity if the price is too high or too low when you translate its value back into the value in the home country’s currency and exchange. ADRs offer diversification and capital appreciation for investors by adding an international component to portfolios.

We have owned these types of investments for our clients through some of our money managers. We tread carefully into these spaces as many investors have been reaching for yield causing these investments to appear richly valued compared to their historical valuations.

Utilizing these types of securities doesn’t have to be as scary as it was for Dorothy to travel into the haunted forest. Arm yourself with knowledge and a good Financial Planner to help make the best decisions for your financial plan!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this post or blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Andrea Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility.

Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Investor Basics: Stocks 101

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

Earlier in the Investor Basics series, we went over the basics of bonds. Now we’re going to switch gears to the equity side of the investment universe, and gain a better understanding of the basics of stocks.

What is a stock?

A stock is a claim on a company’s assets, or in other words, a share in ownership. If you own a stock, then you own a piece of the company.

The major difference between stocks and bonds is that bonds have a contractual agreement to pay interest until the bond retires, while owners of stocks have a claim to assets so they hope to make money on capital or price appreciation and/or dividend income. Another major difference between stocks and bonds is that owners of stocks do not get paid in the event of a company’s bankruptcy until after all the bond holders are paid. For these reasons, stocks are typically considered “more volatile” investments.

What are the different types of stock?

There are two main types of stocks – common and preferred.

When hearing people talk about stocks in everyday conversation, it is usually safe to assume that they are talking about common stock. Common stocks are much more prevalent in the market. The major difference in characteristics of common stocks and preferred stocks are – 1. Common stocks do not have a fixed dividend, while preferred stocks do, and 2. Common stocks allow the investor to vote on corporate matters such as who makes up the board of directors, while preferred stocks do not.

Voting rights depend on the number of shares that you own. If you own 1000 shares, you have 1000 votes to cast. Most companies allow votes to be cast by proxy, so the individual investor does not have to be present at things like annual meetings in order to cast a vote. Proxy votes can typically be sent in by mail, or nowadays it is common that you will be alerted via email that you are able to vote on a company’s policy and you may cast it quickly online.

Preferred stocks may not allow the investor to vote on policies, but they do have a fixed dividend that is typically higher than the dividend of a common stock, and in the event of liquidation will be paid before common shareholders (but after bond holders). You may note that a fixed dividend sounds a lot like the fixed interest payment of a bond. This is true, but there is no contractual obligation to pay the dividend on stocks. These similarities typically make preferred shares act like something in between a stock and a bond – something that does not participate in the price movement of a company as much as a common stock, but receives a fixed dividend similar to the interest payment of a bond.

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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This information does not purport to be a complete description of the securities referred to in this material, it is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Investing in common stocks always involves risk, including the possibility of losing one's entire investment. Dividends are subject to change and are not guaranteed, dividends must be authorized by a company's board of directors.

Second Quarter Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

We’ve been busy with research this quarter. We listened to discussions on everything ranging from interest rates, to the current state of the economy, to social investing. Here’s a peek into what we’ve been learning! 

Jeff Sherman of Doubleline

Jeff is Doubleline’s head of macro asset allocation and a lead portfolio manager. He shared his thoughts on the fixed income markets as well as some interesting insight into the automotive industry.

Jeff feels yield is a good predictor of 12 month returns so if you want to know what types of returns you will get from your bond portfolio you need not look past its yield. Unfortunately, yields are very low right now.

Is there a catalyst for higher rates?

The simple answer, they think, is no. There has to be pressure from somewhere in the economy for rates to rise. GDP (gross domestic product) growth, a general rise in the price of goods (inflation), or wage inflation could trigger rates to rise. They don’t see any of these scenarios happening in the economy right now leading them to believe rates will be on the rise anytime soon. 

Automotive industry worries

They are worried about the automotive market because there have been a lot of subprime loans given to consumers to buy cars. Car dealerships are even starting to lease pre-owned vehicles—because inventories are very high—which has never been done before. Inventories are unusually high right now because cars are lasting longer and Uber is taking over and replacing the need to own a car in many markets. These factors spell trouble for the industry. 

Benjamin Allen of Parnassus

Social investing has been an area of focus for our research over the past couple of years. The process of incorporating a social or ESG overlay to our portfolios for those interested has many more options and research available now. Ben spoke about their process that starts with fundamental research just like any other asset manager. What makes them different is they also apply a lens for social factors including environmental and corporate governance. Their company is 32 years old, completely independent and employee owned. He discussed the importance of this independence in being able to develop their own personal edge for clients which has been a big driver of their success. It sounds like a little company I know…The Center! Our very own 30 year history as independent and employee owned.

Brian Wesbury, Chief Economist for First Trust Advisors

While attending a financial planning conference recently, Matt Trujillo, CFP®, had the opportunity to listen to Brian Wesbury speak. Often seen on CNBC, Fox News, and Bloomberg TV he always has an interesting viewpoint. He touched on two prevalent topics: inflation and current American lifestyles.

On Inflation

He noted that banks are holding onto large excess reserves and that’s why we haven’t seen much inflation and growth because they aren’t lending the money out. He referred to the M2 money supply which has grown very little over the last 10 years. M2 is a measure of money supply that includes cash and checking deposits (M1) as well as “near money.” “Near money" in M2 includes savings deposits, money markets, and other time deposits, which are less liquid and not as suitable as exchange mediums but can be quickly converted into cash or checking deposits.

On Lifestyle

Brian talked about how there has been very little wage growth but that our lifestyles have still grown due to dramatic innovations in technology. In 1995 if you wanted to purchase 1 Gigabyte of hard drive space it would have cost you $45,000. Then he pulled out his iPhone and said he had 64GB of space, which would have been worth $2.8 Million back in 1995! Another example is Facebook, the world’s most popular media owner, creates no content. Does this increase in lifestyle makeup for the lack of wage increases? He is not the first economist we have heard refer to this phenomenon. I believe that much research is to come on this topic.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. This information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Jeff Sherman, Benjamin Allen, Brian Wesbury or the companies/organizations they represent. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

BREXIT—What the Separation Means for You

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

In case you missed it, Great Britain voted to leave the European Union yesterday. Here’s a recap of why this vote took place, what the arguments were on each side, and what the vote means for you, the U.S. investor.

It costs Great Britain nearly $10 billion to be a member of the European Union. What does a country like Great Britain gain from the $10B membership fee? The EU spends its budget on economic stabilization, job creation, and security for European citizens. Its members also get the benefit of being a part of the largest trade bloc in the world.

This vote took place now because David Cameron, Prime Minister of Great Britain, campaigned on the promise that he would negotiate better terms of Great Britain’s membership to the European Union. Great Britain has been at a divide for the past few years when it came to key issues related to the European Union. Proponents of leaving the EU cited issues such as the price tag of membership, weak borders as a result of the EU’s immigration and free movement of people policies, and the limit of business growth because of strict general lawmaking. The argument of those who wanted to remain in the EU was centered on the economic benefit of the trade bloc that allowed for free trade between Great Britain and the other members.

Now that Great Britain has voted to leave the EU, they will begin a two year negotiation to determine the details of the separation - the largest of issues being the details of trade between the now independent Great Britain and the remaining EU member countries.

This vote contributed to investor uncertainty in the previous months, and the decisions that are made over the next couple years will undoubtedly contribute to investor uncertainty as media outlets continue to make noise as they do all too well. The key for investors is to be able to filter through the noise to make well informed decisions. Events such as Brexit are great examples of systematic risk that contributes to volatility and risk in portfolios, something that we continually monitor in our portfolios here at The Center. 

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected.

First Quarter 2016 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

The relatively benign appearing performance year-to-date of the S&P 500 of 1.35% does not tell the full story of the storm beneath.  Markets started out the year spooked by China and the prospects of four interest rate increases being projected by the Federal Reserve (the Fed).  Recessionary fears seemed to spike mid-February and then recede as economic data such as retail sales, manufacturing, employment, and consumer sentiment came in slightly better than expected or at least didn’t surprise to the downside. 

Janet Yellen, chair of the Fed, ended the quarter with a noticeably dovish speech justifying the Federal Open Market Committee’s lower path for rate increases by citing global growth risks.  The Fed now anticipates only two interest rate increases this year instead of their original four.  Meanwhile, interest rates overseas pushed farther into negative territory while the Bank of Japan introduced their own negative interest rate policy leaving the U.S. as one of the few havens in the world that is still providing yield. 

Last Year’s Losers are this Year’s Winners

2015 positive market returns were driven very narrowly by just a handful of stocks.  This year has turned on a dime with the worst performing companies of 2015 being the best performers in 2016.  The below chart breaks the S&P 500 up into 10 groups based on 2015 performance.  Group one represents the best performing stocks in 2015 and group ten represents the worst performing stocks in 2015.  The green and red bars represent performance from each of these groups during the first quarter of 2016.

*Bespoke Investment Group

Moderation in the U.S. Dollar

The dollar slowing its steady advance has helped to ease some of the headwinds for commodities, namely oil, as well as emerging markets debt and equities.  The dollar has given up some of its gains from 2015, due to lowered expectations of the Fed hiking rates.  It is quite common for currency markets to over-react to the monetary policy differences that we are seeing between the U.S. and other countries (negative interest rates overseas versus interest rate increases here at home) so we may yet see the dollar move back into slow strengthening mode.

Summer Real Estate Sizzles

Current housing markets seem to have a severe lack of supply of single family homes similar to the late 1990’s and early 2000’s.  Yet new homes being built are at much lower levels then they were during those years.  Prices will likely continue their upward trend of the past few years as demand continues to exceed supply.  Mortgage rates continue to be low especially after the Fed decided to put on the brakes of raising rates.  All of these factors should equate to a favorable market for home sellers. 

Here is some additional information we want to share with you this quarter:

Checkout the quarterly Investment Pulse, by Angela Palacios, CFP®, summarizing some of the research done over the past quarter by our Investment Department. 

In honor of the Game of Thrones premier, Angie Palacios, CFP®, has also discovered a Game of Negative Interest rates that’s playing out in our world right now. Check out Investor Ph.D.

Confused by interest rates and interbank lending? Nick Boguth, Investment Research Associate, breaks it down for you in Investor Basics by using Game of Thrones.

It’s tax season, which also means refunds may be coming your way! Check out these scenarios from Jaclyn Jackson, Investment Research Associate, and see what the smartest plan for your refund is!

Quarters like this one remind us of the importance of diversification.  While a well-diversified portfolio will likely never generate the highest returns possible it also shouldn’t generate the lowest returns.  The primary goal is to manage your risk and keep the end goal of your financial plan at the forefront.  The key to success in investing is developing that plan with realistic goals and then sticking to it even during times like February when it is tempting to deviate. 

We thank you for your continued trust in us to help you through all types of markets to reach your goals.  If ever you have questions, please, don’t hesitate to reach out to me, your planner or any other members of our staff.

Angela Palacios, CFP®
Director of Investments
Financial Advisor

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

First Quarter 2016 Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

We hit the ground running in the New Year with great insight from outside experts on a wide array of topics ranging from fixed income research to how to conduct a more successful investment committee meeting and nearly everything in between!  Here is a summary of some of the highlights.

Chris Dillon, a global fixed income portfolio specialist with T. Rowe Price

An hour spent listening to Chris was one of the most informative yet exhausting hours of the quarter!  He spent much of his time explaining global complexities within the fixed income markets and how they could affect investors in the coming months.  Of particular interest was a discussion on negative rates and his opinion that we will likely look back on these negative interest rate policies around the world as being completely ineffective.  Also discussed was the coming money market reform here in the U.S. with the formation of Prime Money Markets that will have floating pricing (Net Asset Values).  While these will mostly affect institutional level investors his recommendation was not to purchase these, but they could create a fundamental change in the market place presenting interesting opportunities for short term bond investors.

Bob Collie, Chief Research strategist, Americas Institutional, Russell Investments

Bob discussed the difficulty of working in committees as it isn’t something that comes naturally to most people.  He offered many questions to ask ourselves to understand how our own investment committee measures up to others.  These answers helped identify areas to focus on improving.  Since our investment committee meets at least once a month you can imagine the agendas are usually very packed.  We need to make the most of our time together overseeing portfolios.  Areas we are focusing on improving after listening to Bob have been visioning (what does success of committee work look like), dynamic discussions, and pre-reading of agenda items and background research so we all have time to formulate our points for the discussion ahead of time.  We have already noted improvements during the meeting and outcomes from the meetings.  Hopefully even more improvements are on the horizon!

Jeremy Siegel, Ph.D., Russell E. Palmer Professor of Finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and Senior Investment Strategy Advisor, Wisdom Tree

"Bubble, the most overused word in finance today."

He believes the market has an aggregation bias, if there are a few stocks or a sector that has large losses, like energy does now, the entire market can look skewed.  The energy sector is biasing the P-E index of the market upward making it look more expensive as a whole than it really is.  He thinks fundamentals have driven interest rates to zero rather than artificial means, the FED has simply followed suit reducing interest rates along the way.  Economic growth and risk aversion are the most important determinants of real rates.  Increased risk aversion, aging investors, a desire for liquidity and the de-risking of pension funds has increased demand for bonds forcing their yields lower.  Jeremy has always had a very bullish view on the markets and now seemed no different.  He feels returns over the coming years will fall in line with long term averages.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Chris Dillon, Bob Collie, Jeremy Siegel or the companies/organizations they represent. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

Investor Ph.D. Series: A Game of Negative Interest Rates

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

While many of us, including me, are eager for the new season of Game of Thrones to begin to see what happens next in Westeros, another game is surfacing around our world. Countries around the world are changing the rules of the game by pushing interest rates into negative territory. What happens when this occurs? Winter seems to be inevitable for the citizens in the seven kingdoms but is it inevitable for us?

My colleague Nick Boguth recently wrote a blog explaining the different types of interest rates: Policy, Interbank, and Bank lending rates. Each of the rates is affected differently when interest rates are pushed into negative territory but all are ultimately connected. 

When Policy Rates go Negative

This is the money paid to banks when they deposit their excess reserves with the Central Bank or have to borrow from the Central Bank to meet their reserve requirements. When these rates go negative it makes it cheaper for commercial banks to borrow to meet their reserve requirements but can actually cost the bank money when they park their excess reserves with the Central Bank overnight. Like the Iron Bank of Braavos “The Iron (Central) Bank will have its due.” This encourages banks to look around for something else to do with their excess reserves, like looking to each other to borrow from and lend to rather than the Central Bank. 

When Interbank Rates go Negative

Banks lending to each other is affected by negative rates as they must now pay to lend money to another bank. The only way they would do this is if they had to pay less to loan their money to another bank than to pay to park it at the Central Bank. Neither of these situations is desirable. Institutions desire to earn money on these excess reserves rather than pay to loan to anyone. That has spurred them to buy short-term government debt with their excess reserves to try to seek some yield and the result is that they have pushed Government yields in certain countries, like Germany, into negative territory too. This, in turn, also drags down rates on corporate debt as they are correlated to government bond yields. 

When Bank Lending Rates go Negative

The domino effect of all of these negative rates should pass through to the consumer but doesn’t always show up in lending rates. This negative deposit rate pushes down rates on short-term loans of other types of lending the bank does, like home and auto financing. But other factors, such as credit risk (while a Lannister always pays their debts, consumers don’t) and term premia can put a floor on how low rates can go to the consumer. Favorable lending rates also can be made up with charging consumers more to park their money in the bank. In theory, this downward pressure on rates is supposed to provide an economic boost while also weakening the country’s currency.

No one knows how the series Game of Thrones is going to end as the books have yet to be written. Like the show, the book has not yet been written on the full impact of negative interest rates either. It remains to be seen how this game ultimately ends!

http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/pages/macroeconomic-insights-folder/negative-interest-rates-101/img-01-slide.png

http://www.wsj.com/articles/everything-you-need-to-know-about-negative-rates-1456700481?cb=logged0.8200769642227588

This material is being provided for information purposes only. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.

Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

Investor Basics: Bank Loans, Interest Rates, and Game of Thrones

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

In the spirit of preparing for season six of Game of Thrones, this set of Investor Basics and Investor Ph.D blogs is aimed to discuss bank loans and interest rates with respect to the increasingly popular adventure/fantasy television series. Check out our Director of Investment’s blog “A Game of Negative Interest Rates” HERE.

There are three types of bank loans – 1: Central Bank Loans, 2: Interbank Loans, and 3: Consumer Loans. Each loan is between different parties and has a different interest rate.

Central Banks require commercial banks to meet reserve requirements to ensure their liquidity. At the end of every day, after all of a commercial bank’s clients deposit and withdraw money, if that bank has less than the reserve requirement then it has to borrow money to raise its reserves.

If it has to borrow money to raise its reserves, it has two options. It can either borrow from the Central Bank at the discount rate, or borrow from a fellow commercial bank that has excess reserves at the end of its business day. Commercial banks borrow from each other at the federal funds rate. Currently the discount rate is 1% and the federal funds rate is 0.5%. Obviously, commercial banks prefer to borrow at the lower rate, so interbank lending is much more common than borrowing from the Central Bank. Borrowing from the Central Bank is more of a last resort for commercial banks.

The third interest rate that banks deal with is the bank lending rate. This is the rate that we, the consumers, see when we walk into a commercial bank and ask for a loan. The discount rate and federal funds rate affect banks’ lending rates, but it is also influenced by how creditworthy the customer is, the banks’ operating costs, the term of the loan, and other factors.

For all you Game of Thrones fans, you can think of the Central Bank like the Iron Bank of Braavos. It is the most powerful financial institution in the world, but it only lends to those that can repay debts (e.g. the Central Bank only lends to commercial banks). Not just anyone can borrow from the Central Bank, but the Lannister’s can because “A Lannister always pays his debts.”  SPOILER ALERT coming for anyone who has not made it through season 5: Remember back to season 5 when the Iron Bank is forcing the Iron Throne to repay one-tenth of their debts? Lord Mace offers that House Tyrell could lend the Lannister’s some money so that they could meet the Iron Bank’s “reserve requirement” of one-tenth. This is interbank lending! Thankfully for us, the cost of borrowing money in real life is only the interest rate, whereas in Game of Thrones it could be one’s life.

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.

How Should I Use My Tax Refund?

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

Tax filing season is over and many people are entitled to get money back from Uncle Sam.  While most of us are tempted to buy the latest gadget or book a vacation, there may be a better way to use your tax refund. If you are pondering what to do with your tax refund, here are a few questions to help determine whether you should SAVE, INVEST, or SPEND it.

Have you been delaying one of the following: car repair, dental or vision checks, or home improvement?

If you answered yes: SPEND

If you had to be conservative with your income last year and as a result postponed car, health, or home maintenance, you can use your tax refund to get those things done.  Postponing routine maintenance to save money short term may add up to huge expenses long term (i.e. having to purchase a new car, incurring major medical expenses, or dealing with costly home repairs.)

Do you have debt with high interest rates?

If you answered yes: SPEND

High interest rates really hurt over time. For instance, let’s say you have a $5,000 balance at 15% APR and only paid the minimum each month.  It would take you almost nine years to pay off the debt and cost you an additional $2,118 interest (a 42% increase to your original loan) for a total payment of $7,118. Use your tax return to dig out of the hole and get debt down as much as possible.

Could benefit from buying or increasing your insurance?

If you answered yes: SPEND

1. Consider personal umbrella insurance for expenses that exceed your normal home or auto liability coverage.

2. Make sure you have enough life insurance.

3. Beef up your insurance to protect against extreme weather conditions like flooding or different types of storm damage that are not normally included in a standard policy.  Similarly, you can use your tax refund to physically your home from tough weather conditions; clean gutters, trim low hanging branches, seal windows, repair your roof, stock an emergency kit, buy a generator, etc.

Have you had to use emergency funds the last couple of years to meet expenses?

If you answered yes: SAVE

Stuff happens and usually at unpredictable times, so it’s understandable that you may have dipped into your emergency reserves. You can use your tax refund to replenish rainy day funds.  The rule of thumb is to have at least 3-6 months of your expenses saved for emergencies. 

Are you considered a contract or contingent employee?

If you answered yes: SAVE

Temporary and contract employment has become pretty common in our labor-competitive economy where high paying positions are few and far between. If you paid estimated taxes, you may be eligible for a tax refund. Take this opportunity to build up savings to buffer against slow seasons or gaps in employment. 

Could you benefit from building up retirement savings?

If you answered yes: INVEST

Get ahead of the game with an early 2016 contribution to your Roth IRA or traditional IRA.  You can add up to $5,500 to your account (or $6,500 if you are age 50 or older).  Investing in a work sponsored retirement plan like a 401(k), 403(b), or 457(b) is also recommended so you could beef up your contributions for the rest of the year and use the refund to supplement your cash flow in the meantime. 

Are you interested saving for your child’s college education?

If you answered yes: INVEST

College expenses aren’t getting any cheaper and there’s no time like the present to start saving for your child’s college tuition.  Money invested in a 529 account could be used tax-free for college bills with the added bonus of a state income tax deduction for you contribution.

Could you benefit professionally from entering a certification program, attending conferences/seminar, or joining a professional organization?

If you answered yes: INVEST

It’s always a good idea to invest in your development.  Why not use your tax refund to propel your future?  Try a public speaking or professional writing course; attend a conference that will give you useful information or potentially widen your network.   

Did you answer “no” to all the questions above?

If you answered yes: HAVE FUN

Buy the latest gadget.  Book the vacation.  You’ve earned it!

Jaclyn Jackson is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and an Investment Representative with Raymond James Financial Services.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Please include: Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members. Hypothetical examples are for illustration purposes only.