Investment Commentary - 4th Quarter 2013

What goes up... 2013 has been a year of extremes. The stock market[i] has produced dramatically positive total returns. Meanwhile bonds[ii] are suffering their worst losses in almost 15 years. Whether rate rise result in the advent of a new “rising rate regime” where returns have more and more headwind over time is yet to be determined. Meanwhile, stock returns have been so strong (north than 25% as of November 19th) that market watchers are increasingly debating the sustainability of continued positive returns.

Here are full asset class returns through the 3rd quarter. Of note: we have marked the five-year anniversary of Lehman Brother’s collapse – an infamous period in American market history and also a reminder of how far portfolios and personal balance sheets have come since that time.

Economic Update

The extremity of returns is being accompanied by more unexceptional economic growth. While a desirable recovery growth rate might be 4%, the real gross domestic product was most recently measured at 2.8%[iii]. What growth there is has come without a hiring bonanza that Main Street and the Fed are craving; unemployment continues to get better but at an unimpressive pace. There are, however, quite a few bright spots in the economy.

What are the bright spots?

• Always a critical factor to economic growth, housing prices are coming off a strong year of recovery with a tight supply and rising demand. Affordability of home ownership still seems to be reasonable due to low borrowing rates for those who can qualify and rising rents. While we don’t think the high pace of recovery can be sustained, we do think the housing picture will continue to look more positive.
• Corporate profitability continues to be near historic highs. Companies, like households, did a lot of belt-tightening over the last five years. The question today is when will companies start to spend some of their cash war chest they’ve accumulated on capital expenditures or hiring?
• Surprises have come to the economy through an energy renaissance that is welcomed by US capital markets but reviled by those concerned with environmental impact of shale drilling. An underreported note is that new energy production is accompanied by continued muted demand which may be the result of slower recovery but also changes in behavior through more efficient energy usage. We will continue to keep our eyes on this development for potential positive feedback to housing and US manufacturing.
• Foreign markets have been less cheers and more jeers for much of the past few years. A recurrence of growth in Europe and introduction of new stimulus in Japan has meant that investors saw better returns[iv] in 2013. We still see attractive valuations relative to US stocks and bonds in some instances.

Valuations Today

Rather than taking a victory lap, investors are asking what’s around the corner and whether the strong returns of 2013 might be leading into a new bubble. Stock market valuations (measures of whether stocks are more or less expensive) seem to be in the fair value range – trading around a price-earnings ratio between fifteen and sixteen times[v]. We agree that what goes up may at some point come down – there has been very little pull-back in the US market this year and at some point, bigger drawdowns are probably likely.

On the plus side, much of the 2013 sequestration may be behind us, depending on the results of Washington DC negotiations on the budget and debt ceiling. Also, many have kept cash on the sidelines waiting for drawbacks to occur so they can buy at lower prices. We think this “cash on the sideline” may be part of the reason drawbacks have been so shallow this year and there is more cash where that came from. When you couple that cash with the huge pile of bonds people have purchased in the past five years with very low prospects for future return, there may be more fuel for the stock market fire.

Portfolio Construction Today

We have continued to underweight core bonds in investment portfolios, overweighting multi-sector bond diversifiers and equities in their stead. While reduced in our allocations, we feel there is an enduring role for bonds in many personal investment portfolios. We maintain a neutral weighting to US stocks, have increased our underweight in international stocks to neutral, and maintained an overweight to flexible-tactical managers who can choose between asset classes based upon the changing dynamics of markets. At all times, we recommend that you maintain a rebalancing process and invest with attention to anticipated liquidity needs, tax situations, etc.

We continue to ask you to stick with the discipline of diversified, balanced investing. In some years, you may ask us why we didn’t hunker down in cash because markets declined. At other times, you might be kicking yourself because a pure stock portfolio is up north of 25% and your diversified returns seem less impressive. Our experience leads us to recommend a broadly diversified portfolio to meet your financial goals and objectives. Thank you for your trust in letting us work with you to meet those goals.

On behalf of everyone at The Center,

Melissa Joy, CFP®

Partner, Director of Investments

Melissa Joy, CFP®is Partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. In 2011 and 2012, Melissa was honored by Financial Advisor magazine in the inaugural Research All Star List. In addition to her frequent contributions to Money Centered blogs, she writes frequent investment updates at The Center and is regularly quoted in national media publications including The Chicago Tribune, Investment News, and Morningstar Advisor.

Financial Advisor magazine's inaugural Research All Star List is based on job function of the person evaluated, fund selections and evaluation process used, study of rejected fund examples, and evaluation of challenges faced in the job and actions taken to overcome those challenges. Evaluations are independently conducted by Financial Advisor Magazine.

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any investment referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

[i] As measured by the S&P 500 index

[ii] As measured by the BarCap Aggregate Bond Index

[iii] US Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic Analysis

[iv] As measured by MSCI EAFE NR USD

[v] Source: JPMorgan Weekly Market Recap 11/18/13

Investment Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2013

While excellent equity market returns coupled with very low volatility have been the name of the game for much of this year, volatility has become the theme in recent weeks as returns across markets have varied quite widely.  Despite this recent volatility Equity returns still look strong to date this year as well as for the past year while bonds and commodities continue to struggle.

In recent weeks the Federal Reserve Bank (the FED) led by Ben Bernanke has been busy!  At their meeting in mid-June they started to give some guidance in which the seemingly unending stimulus that was termed “QE3” (Quantitative Easing) would start to be tapered off.  In September 2012 the FED started buying $40 billion per month of mortgaged backed securities, accelerating that buying to $85 billion per month in December 2012.  Their continued purchasing of this debt was pending the economy improving as measured by the Unemployment rate.  Recently Bernanke stated:

The Committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the monthly pace of purchases later this year; and if subsequent data remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we would continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around midyear. In this scenario, when asset purchases ultimately come to an end, the unemployment rate would likely be in the vicinity of 7%, with solid economic growth supporting further job gains – a substantial improvement from the 8.1% unemployment rate that prevailed when the Committee announced this program.

Bernanke also stated that the federal funds rate would be kept in the current 0-0.25% range until the unemployment rate headed below 6.5%.  Immediately after this announcement the markets, all markets, sold off.  Domestic and International Equities, Bonds and commodities (most notoriously Gold) all sold off as investors sold first and asked questions later.  Interest rates on the much quoted 10 year Treasury note shot up significantly in the past month.

The selloff in the fixed income markets seemed justified to us, although maybe not across the board.  For the stock markets the reaction seemed  rather extreme because over the course of two days, June 19^th and 20^th, the S&P 500 was off more than 3 times what the Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index was off, ‑3.84% versus -1.21%. 

Since then positive news has been negative for markets while negative news has been positive.  Signs of an improving economy are met with negative returns because people fear this will accelerate the tapering schedule the FED has laid out.  On the other hand stocks have rallied into poor economic data headlines such as “1^st quarter GDP revision of economic growth going from 2.4% to 1.8%.” As equity markets find their footing again we would anticipate this to be a short term anomaly and an improving economy should be met with a positive note by markets going forward but only time will tell.

The bottom line is that QE3 was one of the largest forms of stimulus the FED has applied in its history.  Although 2008 is not yet a distant memory for most, the economy has been improving consistently now for four years.  When put that way it is hard to rationalize these extreme QE measures for too long.  We applaud the FED for its transparency as uncertainty is usually a more negative force in the markets than the actual facts.

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Angela Palacios, CFP®

Portfolio Manager

On a lighter note, as many of you know Melissa Joy, Partner and Director of Investments here at the Center, generally brings you our investment commentary.  However, she is taking a much deserved maternity leave after the birth of Josephine Pearl on June 18th!

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Required Disclaimers: The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors.

There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and fixed income prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, fixed income prices fall and when interest rates fall, fixed income prices generally rise. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Commodities may be subject to greater volatility than investments in traditional securities. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.

Markets Welcome the New Year - 1st Quarter 2013

“Happy New Year!”  At least that’s what stock markets seem to be thinking. While 2012 posted solid returns across asset classes, 2013 has had a more exaggerated “off to the races” feeling for stocks. Money which was piled up on the sideline, whether from fear of the fiscal cliff or general concerns or fatigue, seems to be rushing back in to riskier investments like stocks.

Who hasn’t been happy in the new year? Government bond holders have a slight taste of potential negative returns as interest rates rose. The Barclay’s Capital Aggregate Bond Index returns fell by 0.70% through the end of January. Interest rates have risen in several small periods over the past year with some corresponding bond losses, but a clean slate of fresh “Year to Date” performance numbers may highlight these negatives more easily than hiccups buried within the year.

US GDP growth from the 4th quarter was markedly lower than expected falling by 0.1% as reported by the Commerce Department. What was ailing the US economy? Much of the blame goes to reduced spending, especially in the defense sector as there was anticipation of spending cuts related to the fiscal cliff. This is likely to be revised upward, though, because the trade deficit narrowed unexpectedly during the end of the year.

Washington’s grip on business page headlines is not done, but an agreement to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff as well as delay the debt ceiling limits seems to have been a welcome break from posturing and threats for a few weeks. We still have spending cuts to deal with in the next couple months so the respite may be short-lived. We are not fans of can kicking, but we also do not want government dysfunction to hijack the investment realm. We’ll keep you posted as developments unfold.

While growth has been muted, employment numbers continue to slowly look better as more people return to look for jobs and less new unemployment claims are registered. These numbers are an important factor in our economic picture today and while the US unemployment recovery is certainly sluggish, the direction of the numbers (more jobs, less unemployed) remains critical. In tandem with unemployment is housing which has been a major drag to the economy since 2008. Encouraging positive numbers have been reported from 2012 into 2013 for both housing prices and activity. This is a welcomed trend!

US economic reports aren’t the only positives. The notion of recovery is starting to be contemplated in Europe and while the Euro economies certainly aren’t out of the woods, the Euro itself seems more viable. In China, new leadership has also allayed fears of a hard landing in Asia. In the US, corporations continue to post strong earnings and a new reality in domestic energy production is starting to change some dynamics for US competitiveness.

January’s buying stampede cannot sustain itself for 12 months and we’re sure 2013 will have its investing ups and downs as does any other year. That said, those who continually forecast doom and gloom for US markets would be hard-pressed to explain the rising tide we’ve witnessed since the beginning of 2012.

Things are never as good or as bad as they may appear. Better returns may tip the investing scales from fear to greed. Don’t get too excited chasing returns of yesterday. We still recommend a prudent, diversified and consistent approach to investing as you strive to reach the finish line for each of your personal financial planning goals.

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Melissa Joy, CFP®

Partner, Director of Investments

Required Disclaimer: The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy, CFP® and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Investing involves risk and diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Bond Index is a broad base index maintained by Barclays Capital and is often used to represent investment grade bonds being traded in United States. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Post-Election Investment Update: Cold Shoulder and the Fiscal Cliff

It’s been a year and almost $6 billion dollars since the kick-off of the presidential campaign cycle. After all that, we are left with relatively few changes in terms of the composition of the executive and legislative branches. President Barack Obama decisively won in the Electoral College race, but when all was said and done, he garnered less than a 3% advantage over Mitt Romney. In the election aftermath or afterglow, depending on your perspective, all eyes are now on the Fiscal Cliff and other looming issues that the president and Congress were unable to tackle in the last four years. Here are our thoughts on the impact of the election for the economy and your investments.

The Fiscal Cliff

There are wide-ranging tax increases and spending cuts set to occur after January 1^st. These included mandatory spending cuts across the board, the end of the Bush-era tax cuts, Alternative Minimum Tax expansion and the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), investment income taxes, payroll tax holiday coming to an end, and more. All of this adds up to about $650 billion.

Some hoped for shifting control on Capitol Hill to address these issues, but this was not to be. With the same actors who could not resolve these issues for the last two years remaining in office, that seems to be wishful thinking. Some potential considerations:

• Compromise possible: Some components of the Fiscal Cliff are not attractive to either party and government doesn’t have to figure out everything at once. Look for the possibility of compromises for things like AMT and mandatory spending cuts to occur prior to congressional recess in December.
• Bush Tax Cuts: With much of the Republican House beholden to a “no tax increase” pledge, the expiration of Bush tax cuts as of the end of the year and then a roll-back of some of those increases for lower brackets is a threat favored by the most liberal wing of the Democratic Party. To us, this would be a disappointing result, but not out of the realm of possibility. Keep an eye on the discussion of what income level is left out. President Obama has said he wants tax increases for those making over $250,000. This is a starting point, but others have talked about levels upwards of $500,000 or $1,000,000.
• Kicking the Can Down the Road:  It’s certainly possible that a compromise will not be reached or mapped out prior to year-end. In the past, this has resulted in an infuriating form of procrastination by agreeing to delay a decision until some date down the road. The more this occurs, the worse off we are. We are especially concerned if there is a delay today because of the impact on corporate decision-making which is thirsting for some clear guidance about the road ahead. Further, if the arbitrary date gets too close to mid-term elections, we’ll be left with even longer odds for an agreement. That said, if there is true desire from those involved to tackle more significant tax overhaul, buying more time may be critical. The last major tax policy shift occurred in 1986. President Reagan and a Democrat-controlled Congress took two years to put a deal together, and they were more agreeable counterparties.
  
• Return of Volatility: Markets this year have had exceptionally low volatility when compared to recent years. Uncertainty and extreme possibilities will likely usher in very volatile returns through at least the end of the year and we’re already seeing this today. The more pain there is in the markets, the more likely that estranged parties become willing to work together for a solution. Do not be surprised if stock prices respond very positively and quickly if a compromise is reached.

Also on the Horizon

The Fiscal Cliff is not all that we should focus on as a result of the election. We are also watching:

• Federal Reserve: A Romney win would have meant much more uncertainty as to the future leader of the Federal Reserve vs. President Obama’s continued allegiance to Chairman Ben Bernanke. While Bernanke has said that he does not want to stay for another term (which ends in 2014), it is likely that the low interest rate mandate will remain with a Bernanke-esque nominee. Possible reasons for a change to the current zero interest rate policy? Robust GDP growth or significant inflation which we think may be more likely the longer easy money sticks around.
  
• Debt Ceiling: The current debt ceiling limit would be breached in early 2013 and coincides with the Fiscal Cliff discussions. Washington needs to remain on speaking terms to avoid the detriments of another failure to act on this issue.
  
• Treasury Secretary: Timothy Geithner has said he is not interested in remaining at the Treasury. President Obama’s nomination for replacement will be very important in terms of cooperation with Congress as well as opportunities to tackle the long-term debt issues for the US. Watch to see if the nominee has a reputation of bipartisanship and dealing with Congress or a more ideological persona. While the Fiscal Cliff is in the spotlight today, we believe a long-term path to sustainable growth coupled with lower government debt is a much more critical issue.

We are encouraged by several factors that may lead to better resolutions to the serious issues that must be resolved by Washington powers today. A second-term president moves from a focus on reelection to the desire for a lasting legacy. In our estimation, nothing would be deemed more critical, both by Americans today and the history books, than creating a long-term plan for debt while leaving the economy in better shape than it is today. While Republicans, especially in the House of Representatives, spent the last two years working to deny President Obama reelection, they will need more constructive accomplishments on their resume as they look toward mid-term elections in two years. Finally, there seems to be stronger organized encouragement from the business community led by Fortune 500 CEO’s encouraging both sides to set aside their differences and to come to the table.

While markets have welcomed the election results with a cold shoulder, year-to-date returns remain positive for many investments. As stated earlier, we are not surprised by more disrupted markets post-election. Uncertainty breeds volatility and we expect weeks and possibly months of posturing before we have a more clear direction going forward.

I encourage you to follow the 80/20 rule when it comes to concerns with the market: spend 80% of your time focusing on financial decisions you can control and less than 20% of your time on external worry and fear. As always, we’re here to help. Please don’t hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or concerns.

On behalf of everyone at The Center,

Melissa Joy, CFP®
Partner, Director of Investments

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy, CFP® and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users.

Investment Commentary - 3rd Quarter 2012

Stock returns as measured by the S&P 500 were in the hole for the quarter coming into June. They rallied somewhat for the month so that those invested accordingly had the potential to recover some.  This time of year also marks some of our most intense research activities including the Morningstar Investment Conference. I summed up our thoughts on portfolio positioning and the Eurozone in a special June update so I'd like to discuss some new trends and themes today.

A laundry list of news items are catching our attention today. They converge to create a growing tally of changes at the margin which may have investment implications for you.

• We've sent you several communications about the changes to General Motors and Ford pensions. Even if you are not directly impacted, there may see similar changes if you have a defined benefit plan. Analysts believe that this is the start of a new wave of offloading pension obligations and that more announcements from other companies may follow. Our experiences show that the decisions to take a pension or lump-sum buyouts is largely personal and complex based upon your overall financial situation.

• Around the world, interest rates have been falling as slowing growth in China and EuroCrisis have been answered by government intervention. This may be one of the reasons that the MSCI EAFE is flat on the year in spite of dire headlines overseas. While interest rates would be challenged to go lower in the US, there is some room for government intervention around the world, especially in emerging markets -- think of Brazil as an example.

• A surprising slowdown in overall US debt growth has been occurring under our nose. No, the US federal debt load keeps growing, but there has been measurable deleveraging on the state and household levels. Some of this has come through the painful process of personal bankruptcy and foreclosures. States and municipalities have been practicing their own austerity with layoffs and less borrowing.

• The Affordable Care Act was largely upheld by the Supreme Court last month. This will have implications for Americans of all walks of life. For some of you some of the implications will be investment-related due to the 3.8% surtax on investment income in higher earnings brackets. This increase on investment income may not be the end given the pending expiration of "Bush" tax cuts. The coordination between tax strategy and investment management will become more and more critical in coming years.

• Scandalous headlines resurfaced at big banks, most recently JP Morgan and Barclays. JPM disclosed that it had major losses due to poor risk controls in exotic trades. The Barclay's LIBOR scandal is in its early days and may be much larger than it appears on the surface. Essentially, Barclay's has admitted that it fudged reports of borrowing costs over the last five years. Many Americans may have been negatively impacted since adjustable loans linked to LIBOR are widespread for mortgages, student loans, and car loans.

  We live in a heavily regulated financial world. I know this as much as anyone as each of these messages to you is reviewed in-depth by a compliance department prior to publishing. If I had my druthers, my day would involve less red tape and easier direct communication with you. The continued misbehavior of corporations and individuals alike seems to justify at least some of this burdensome regulation.

As the election season heats up, Angie Palacios, CFP®, Portfolio Coordinator, has focused her MoneyCentered blog posts on politics and investing. Click here to read the series.

Speaking of politics, I recently heard Columbia University Professor of History Eric Foner in an interview discussing Abraham Lincoln's presidency and leadership strengths. He mentioned that one of Lincoln’s strongest character traits was the ability to change his mind on critical issues. “Lincoln was a flip-flopper, if you want to use the terminology of modern politics.” While a politician today is accused of something close to political treason each time they tweak or change their mind, I value the ability to keep an open mind as an investor.

We think long and hard about what would be best for you as our clients and what worked yesterday may not always work tomorrow. We take the changing investment landscape into consideration as we make investment decisions while we will stick with our process which encourages us to analyze and evaluate risks and opportunities for you. Perhaps if our elected officials were afforded the same flexibility there would be more compromise and less frustration with our nation’s capital. 

I always enjoy hearing from those of you who are reading these investment updates. Don't hesitate to let me know if you have any questions, comments, or suggestions for future topics.

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Melissa Joy, CFP®
Partner, Director of Investments
Investment Advisor Representative, RJFS

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy, CFP® and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users.

Investment Commentary - 2nd Quarter 2012

Stock investments roared into 2012 with the S&P 500 closing the first quarter up 12.59%. International markets also posted strong quarterly returns as investors seemed to feel that Greece compromises helped to avoid a chaotic default and seemed to buy some breathing room. The quarter was also notable formuted volatilityin equities. While stocks zoomed, bonds stalled and their returns were relatively unchanged.

Source: Morningstar Direct

Economic data seems to be disappointing bulls and bears alike. Pessimists are predicting recession, but leading indicators continue to suggest that things are getting better. Those more naturally optimistic are looking for better employment numbers and decisive growth. We break down unemployment trends here.For now, we think it’s best to be constructive and cautiously optimistic.

The exceptionally strong market returns of the last six months may mean that it’s time for a breather, or (in market speak) consolidation. Longer term, balance sheets and stock earnings continue to indicate corporate health. Another indicator, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, shows recovery off of depressed lows over the summer, but is below the 30-year average. Keep in mind that stock dividends are rivaling Treasury bond yields and we are comfortable maintaining neutral allocations to stocks.

As the saying goes, “Don’t fight the Fed” and Operation Twist coupled with European Central Bank liquidity injections seem to be helping to support modest growth. On April 11th, Vice Chairman of the Fed, Janet Yellen, indicated that low rates could extend beyond 2014if the pace of growth fails to accelerate. For more on the impact of recent Quantitative Easing on stocks, click here.

The lackadaisical recovery and Fed accommodation may be buying time for bondholders as the Fed works to keep interest rates low. Data shows that investors have continued throwing money into bonds in spite of the threat of rising interest rates. This may be good news for stocks as strong returns were not driven by investors “crowding in”. Conversely, the nearly insatiable public demand for bonds gives us pause. Those relishing the relative comfort that bond investments have offered in the past thirty years may want to reconsider future assumptions. Learn more about our concerns in bond markets and how we’re investing here.

We’ve just completed a blog series that discusses components of our investment process that you might find helpful.

Introduction: The Investor’s Chief Problem

Strategic Allocation: Building Your Foundation

Tactical Allocation: Deck the Halls with Tactical Allocation

Types of Investments: Time to Declutter

Buy Process: Salad Surprise

Sell Discipline: The Gambler

Rebalancing: Game Plan

If you have topics you would like us to cover in the future, please let us know! As always, we appreciate the opportunity to meet your financial planning and investment needs. Thank you!

Sincerely,

Melissa Joy, CFS

Partner & Director of Investments

Financial Associate, RJFS

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Melissa Joy and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Please note that international investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, different financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. U.S. government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise. All indexes are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company’s board of directors.

Hello 2012!

If you extrapolate last year's lessons, diversification could be seen as the biggest threat to a portfolio. Traditional US Large Company Stocks and US Government Bonds sprinted past limping "diversifiers" such as international stocks, non-traditional bonds, and alternative investments. Over history, clients have generally benefited from diversification. But this pillar of investment discipline turned into a headwind last year.

For equity investors, flat domestic returns did not tell the whole story. Consider that the return of the S&P 500 index last year was 2.1% including dividends. US Companies took a roller coaster ride to get back to their starting point - disappointing summer news was eventually overcome by maintained slow growth and exceptional corporate profits.

Source: Morningstar, Inc.

For investors,

staying the course was a challenging proposition last year. The return landscape was even more challenging for portfolios with exposure to international markets. A natural disaster and nuclear situation in Japan first set things on edge followed by enduring concerns about debt which continues to engulf the Eurozone.

Bonds were king in 2011

with long bonds issued by the US government ruling the roost. Key interest rates found new lows (insert hyperlink to interest rate chart from RJ). This was helpful if you were in the position to refinance your mortgage and was also helpful from a portfolio perspective. However, those investors who anticipate a rate rise in the future and have positioned portfolios to attempt to minimize the risks did not fully participate in the boom for fixed income investments.

Our resident economist,

Angela Palacios, CFP ®, notes that unemployment has continued its downward trend since August and is currently at 8.5% nationally which is the lowest level in more than three years according to the United States Department of Labor, Bureau of labor Statistics. Retail, manufacturing, transportation and health care are a few of the sectors enjoying job growth. Based on initial claims so far this month it also looks like we will see another decline in the rate even though it is normally high in the first two months of the year with temporary holiday workers being laid off. This reduction in unemployment is a lagging indicator of the economy showing the pickup in economic growth even though it may be slow.

Short-term lessons don't always help investors focused on the long-term results. We still believe there are critical benefits to diversification and maintain portfolios with a variety of distinctive asset categories and strategies. Our process-driven investment strategy is also designed to avoid performance-chasing sirens in favor of disciplined investing.

Sincerely,

Melissa Joy, CFS

Partner, Director of Investments

Financial Advisor, RJFS

Inclusion of these indexes is for illustrative purposes only. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that's generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Barclays Capital Aggregate Index measures changes in the fixed-rate debt issues rated investment grade or higher by Moody's Investors Service, Standard & Poor's, or Fitch Investor's Service, in that order. The Aggregate Index is comprised of the Government/Corporate, the Mortgage-Backed Securities and the Asset-Backed Securities indices. The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small cap securities which generally involve greater risks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow”, is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. Russell 1000: Measures the performance of the 1,000 largest companies in the Russell 3000 Index. MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, Far East): A free-float adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States and Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss. Investments related to a specific sector, where companies engage in business related to a particular industry, are subject to fierce competition, the possibility of products and services being subject to rapid obsolescence, and limited diversification. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss, including the loss of all principal.