October Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

As we find ourselves coming into the last quarter of 2015, already we have much to reflect upon from headlines throughout the year.  The GOP candidate race is heating up and the election battle will be in full swing over the next 12 months.  Negative global news is spilling over into market performance, leaving investors wondering what to do.

All Fed all the time

In September, the Federal Reserve Board (Fed) held off raising interest rates, contrary to what many experts anticipated.  This was likely due to reservations about confirming investor fears regarding the strength of the overall global economy in the wake of China’s slowdown.  Markets sold off after this with the spillover of these concerns.  Later in September Janet Yellen spoke and confirmed The Fed does intend to raise rates before the end of the year but the recent softening in nonfarm payrolls puts that in doubt.  They will be watching the labor market, inflation and financial stability factors very closely.

Risk from abroad

China’s decelerating growth continues to throw a wrench in the strength of the overall global economy.  As China’s economy worsens, the Chinese stock market is taking one on the chin this year.  Commodities continue their sell off along with emerging markets that depend upon commodities for their livelihoods as a result of China’s slowdown.  Softening of global growth could potentially negatively impact returns overseas even as accommodative monetary policy and low oil prices have a positive impact.

Back here at home 

Above average equity valuations remain a strong headwind for equity market performance domestically.  Shrinking earnings over the past couple of quarters have led price-to-earnings ratios of companies to expand even while prices fall.  The strong dollar is having an impact on this, making our exports more expensive to consumers outside of the United States.  This is causing a hit to business investment as the strong dollar is directly affecting corporate profits of large multinationals.

A bright spot in the economy

Heightened volatility will likely continue in markets over the coming months.  However, strength in our GDP growth has drastically recovered after a slow first quarter of the year due to weather disruptions.  Consumer spending is finally picking up, spurred by low gas prices and the strength of the housing and new construction market through the summer.  Job growth remains strong, led by small and medium-sized firms, and initial unemployment claims are near lows.

Here is some additional information we want to share with you this quarter:

• Checkout my quarterly Investment Pulse, summarizing some of the research done over the past quarter by our Investment Department.

• We are launching a new quarterly series of investor education!

  • First you will hear from Nick Boguth, Client Service Associate, giving some Investor Basics on rising rates and bond prices.

  • Next you will find our Investor Ph.D. series from me diving into the nuances of roll yield you may have heard about lately. 

• Lastly checkout our Year-end checklist from Jaclyn Jackson, Research Associate, giving you tips on how to make the most of the few months left in this year!

While all of this noise can create market volatility, it is more important than ever to keep your long-term goals in mind.  We do not generate future forecasts, rather we trust in the journey of financial planning and a disciplined investment strategy to get us through the tougher times and stay the course.  We appreciate the continued trust you place in us and look forward to serving your needs in the future.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us for any questions or conversations!

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Angela Palacios, CFP®
Portfolio Manager

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Investing in commodities is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Their markets are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising.

Investment Basics: Bonds 101

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

Bonds are a hot topic in the investment community today while we patiently await a rise in interest rates from the Fed. We know that interest rates affect the bond market, but how? In order to truly gain a better understanding of how the bond market works, we’re going back to the basics to address some important fundamental questions that all investors should understand.

First off, what is a bond?

A bond is a debt instrument that a company or government uses to borrow money. A corporation may need cash in order to build new factories; a government may need cash to build a bridge, etc. In order to borrow money, they sell you (the investor) a bond that basically says, “We owe you.” By selling these bonds, they are able raise a large amount of cash, and pay it back over time.

It is important to note that the major difference between bonds and stocks is that bonds are debt, and stocks are equity. If you own a bond, you own a portion of the issuer’s debt. If you own a stock, you own a portion of the company. The upside of owning a bond is that you receive back principal plus interest; you have higher priority for getting paid if the issuer goes bankrupt, and you don’t lose money because the stock price declines. The downside is that you don’t share the issuer’s future profits or participate in rising stock prices. These factors are why bonds are typically considered “less volatile” investments.

What is a coupon?

Bonds pay interest to you, the investor. A coupon is simply the amount of money that you receive at each interest payment (typically every six months). Par value, or the issuer’s price of a bond, is typically $1000. If a bond has a 5% coupon, then you receive 5% of $1000 every year; or $25 every 6 months.

What is yield?

A bond’s yield is a measure of its return. Current yield is calculated by taking the coupon payment and dividing by the current price of the bond. When a bond is trading at par, rather than at a discount or premium, the yield is equal to the coupon payment: $50 coupon payment/$1000 bond price = 5% yield. If the price of that same bond rose to $2000, then the current yield would be $50/$2000 = 2.5%. The yield is lower because you had to pay more money for the bond. The opposite would be true if you bought the bond at a discount. The Yield to maturity is another measure of return. It reflects the return you would get if you held the bond all the way to maturity. For you investors, it is important to understand what coupons and yields are in order to understand their relationship to pricing and interest rate changes.

Why do bond prices go down when interest rates go up?

When interest rates rise, new bonds that are being issued will have higher coupon payments than the old bonds that were issued in the lower interest rate environment. Why would anyone ever buy one of those old bonds that have smaller coupons? If they were the same price, they wouldn’t! This is why bond prices fall when interest rates rise. In order for the yield to be equal between the bond with the higher coupon and the bond with the smaller coupon, the bond with the smaller coupon would have to be cheaper.

Nicholas Boguth is a Client Service Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. The hypothetical examples are for illustration purpose only and do not represent an actual investment.

There are special risks associated with investing with bonds such as interest rate risk, market risk, call risk, prepayment risk, credit risk, reinvestment risk, and unique tax consequences. To learn more about these risks and the suitability of these bonds for you, please contact our office.

Investor Education Ph.D. series: What is Roll Yield?

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

Roll yield is a term that you may have heard lately in the financial news.  No, I am not talking about Cubans and cigars.  I am referring to a potentially profitable bond trading strategy that can be employed to enhance returns of a bond portfolio during a rising interest rate environment.

The Traditional Buy and Hold Bond Strategy

With interest rate increases supposedly just around the corner, investors fear negative or very low returns out of their bond positions.  Furthermore, there are many proponents of buying individual bonds only during a rising interest rate environment.  This strategy offers certainty of getting your principal back upon maturity if the creditor doesn’t default. However, when the bond yield curve is sloping upward there is another strategy that could be employed successfully and potentially create better long term returns than the buy and hold strategy.

How the Roll Yield Bond Strategy is Different

Roll yield is often thought of hand-in-hand with the futures market. In the futures market when you are buying a contract on the price of coffee for example, you are always paying either more or less then coffee is actually trading at in that moment (this is referred to as the spot price).  If you are paying less for the contract than the current spot price, you can then achieve a positive roll yield or price increase as that contract gets closer and closer to maturing at the spot price (assuming the spot price doesn’t change) as shown by the green line in the chart below.

In the bond market this concept is similar but works a bit differently.  When you buy a bond, for example a 5 year treasury bond, you pay $1,000 for this bond and in return get a set rate of interest, I will use1.75% for example.  If the yield curve is upward sloping that means that bonds maturing in less than 5 years should pay some interest rate less than 1.75% as you aren’t tying your money up for as long.  For example, a 4-year bond could yield 1.5%.  See the chart below for an example of an upward sloping yield curve.

As you hold your 5-year treasury it grows closer to maturity every day and eventually your 5 year bond turns into a 4 year bond, 3 year bond and so on until it matures.  If rates don’t change over the first year, you now possess a 4 year bond that yields 1.75% when all other 4-year treasury bonds that are issued are only paying 1.5%.  The interest rate premium means people want your bond more and are willing to pay more money for it.  This results in price appreciation or a capital gain on the bond.  At that time, you could sell the bond and collect the price appreciation in addition to the 1.75% in interest that you collected over the past year. 

The chart below shows a hypothetical example of owning 100 of these bonds.  The blue area is the 1.75% interest that you receive each year.  You can see that it stays level each year until maturity.  However, in the first year you see that there is a red area, or addition to your return, from capital gains of the price going up due to the nature of the process explained above.  You could sell your 100 bonds that in 4 years will mature again at $100,000 or sell it for $101,000 and over the first year collect a total of $1,750 in interest plus $1,000 in capital gains making your return on the $100,000 investment.

Then you could re-invest in a new 5 year bond still paying 1.75% interest again.  The reason you may want to make this transaction is when you get closer to the bond maturing you will have to lose that increase in price because you will only receive your $1,000 back from the US Treasury that you paid originally for the bond and therefore, the bond price will come back down as investors know this will happen and will be unwilling to pay more for the bond.  This is shown in the chart above as the annual loss (red area) in years 4 and 5 on the bond.

Large Bond Managers vs. the Individual Investor

A buy-and-hold investor would give up this potential increase in returns in the early years of holding the bond by not selling and locking in the price appreciation.  However, this strategy can be difficult to pay off for an individual investor because you are dealing in smaller lots of individual bonds and thus you pay commissions and are subject to bid/ask spreads that could make it too costly to trade and take advantage of roll yield.  Large bond managers can often successfully pull this off because they have pricing power due to the sizes of the bond lots they trade.

If rates rise too quickly or only certain parts of the yield curve increase, this type of strategy may not pay off over a buy-and-hold investor.  An investor needs to weigh whether or not they would prefer the certainty of the individual bond or if they would prefer to outsource to a manager to implement potential strategies such as roll yield to enhance returns over time.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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Sources: http://www.futurestradingpedia.com/futures_roll_yield.htm https://www.kitces.com/blog/how-bond-funds-rolling-down-the-yield-curve-help-defend-against-rising-interest-rates/

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation.The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing always involves risk, including the loss of principal, and futures trading could present additional risk based on underlying commodities investments. There are special risks associated with investing with bonds such as interest rate risk, market risk, call risk, prepayment risk, credit risk, reinvestment risk, and unique tax consequences. To learn more about these risks and the suitability of these bonds for you, please contact our office.

Third Quarter Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

After a volatile end to summer and beginning of fall, we’ve been busy reading, listening and digesting other perspectives on the markets … both of the past and looking ahead.

Eric Cinnamond on Taking the Unpopular Road

On September 22nd we had the pleasure to speak with Eric Cinnamond, Portfolio Manager at Aston/River Road.  Mr. Cinnamond offers his perspective on markets while managing a small cap value stock portfolio.  Today, as has often been the case at market inflection points in the past, his portfolio looks quite different than many others.  He currently maintains 85% of his assets in cash and the other 15% are comprised of mining and commodity companies, along with select energy and financial positions.  He stated that this has been his most uncomfortable portfolio in his career of managing money.  His portfolio has suffered major withdrawals in the past couple of years with his underperformance compared to peers.  According to Eric though,

“I’d rather lose half of my clients than half their capital.”

He stated that right now, investors are crowded into safety and high quality positions like healthcare.  As a result these areas are very expensive.  The valuations on the stocks he follows are at the highest of his career.  His possible buy list currently has a Price to Earnings ratio (P/E) of 45 and this has continued to climb this year, not because of price expansion, but due to Earnings contraction.  As a result, he is patiently waiting for the next opportunity to put risk back in his portfolio.  With his absolute return objective, he stresses the importance of avoiding mistakes and only taking risk when investors are compensated for it.  We applaud managers like this who stick to their investment disciplines that have added value over benchmarks over many years and market cycles, even if they are unpopular for a short period of time!

First Eagle pays $40 Million in SEC case Over Distribution Fees

This is a shocking headline coming out of a company that has had little regulatory headline issues in the past.  In 2013 the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) started an industry-wide sweep to evaluate the fees paid by Asset managers to its distributors.  After speaking directly to a representative of First Eagle we learned of 40 agreements First Eagle has with distributors the SEC found one to be in violation because the fee was paid by the mutual fund shareholders pool of money rather than from First Eagle’s general fund.  First Eagle, upon doing their own internal review, then found one other agreement that was also in violation and immediately reported this to the SEC.  As a result they are paying about a $12.5 million penalty to the SEC and then paying $25 million back to fund shareholders along with interest.  These fees are separate from a 12b-1 fee in that they are meant to pay to outsource record keeping and accounting services on the shares owned by investors from First Eagle to the distributing company.  This likely will not be the last we hear of this issue as many other companies are also under scrutiny.  First Eagle was the first to settle.

Dan Fuss Portfolio Manager for Loomis Sayles Fixed Income Team

Dan Fuss recently shared his views on the hot topic of liquidity in the bond markets.  Liquidity is the ability to easily purchase or sell a security at a reasonable price in a reasonable amount of time.  Often though, when the most liquidity is needed during market events, it is the scarcest.  This provides opportunities for bond managers to buy fundamentally strong credits at significant discounts.  Structural and regulatory changes have played a big role in this reducing liquidity as dealer inventories are very low (dark blue line below), while the number of bonds outstanding (light blue line) is steadily increasing in this low interest rate environment.  

In the wake of the global financial crisis in 2008, much regulation was passed that made principal trading (where the bank itself took one side of a bond trade either to buy or sell) much more risky and less profitable.  This, in essence, dried up that part of the market liquidity.  Now banks only act as agents, matching up buyers and sellers rather than being a buyer or a seller.  Mr. Fuss noted that this affects liquidity for large blocks of bonds but that for smaller lots of bonds he finds liquidity is still quite healthy.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/21/us-sec-firsteagle-idUSKCN0RL1S320150921

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There are special risks associated with investing with bonds such as interest rate risk, market risk, call risk, prepayment risk, credit risk, reinvestment risk, and unique tax consequences. To learn more about these risks and the suitability of these bonds for you, please contact our office. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Eric Cinnamond, Aston Asset Management, Dan Fuss and Loomis Sayles.

Making Sense of Market Volatility

Contributed by: Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD

Dear Clients & Friends:

At the risk of stating the obvious, the equity markets experienced some wild swings toward the end of August.  When I was interviewed by Channel 4’s Rod Meloni on August 25th – the 2nd consecutive day of the stock slide – I talked about opportunities I see.  But Rod described it best when he said Cedar Point had nothing on the US Stock market – quite a rollercoaster. 

I’d like to walk you through where the equity markets stand as of September 1, 2015, share some insights as to some of the factors that may have led to such volatility, discuss what may occur in the near future, and importantly what you might do.

Where do equity markets stand on September 1, 2015?

The three major domestic indexes plunged and rallied in quick succession, but ended the month down more than 6%, with the broad-market Standard & Poor’s 500 marking its worst month in three years. International stocks, as measured by the MSCI EAFE index fared a bit worse than their US counterparts.

What combination of factors got us here?

It is natural to seek “causes” or an explanation when stocks go on a wild ride (which is more often than we think). Though there’s no easy answer, here are 4 contributors:

1. China: As my colleague Angela Palacios shared in our August 25th Investment Commentary, weak or at least slowing growth in China is the most widely cited cause of the stock market pullback. After decades of rapid economic growth, recent evidence has shown that China’s growth is slowing. The central bank of the world’s second-largest economy devalued its currency in an attempt to stimulate growth and thwart a stock-market bubble. After those efforts proved futile, Chinese stocks dropped and concerns about growth in China and across the globe sent stocks around the world plunging soon after. The primary Chinese stock exchange, the Shanghai Composite Index, has dropped roughly 40 percent since its June peak.

2. Falling oil, commodity prices: Oil prices are hitting lows not seen in years due to falling demand, oversupply and concerns over global economic growth. Other commodity prices have also declined due to economic growth fears.

3. Interest rate uncertainty: Short-term interest rates have hovered near zero since the 2008 financial crisis. The U.S. economy has recovered enough that the Federal Reserve has indicated it will raise interest rates and return to more normalized monetary policy in the months ahead. Uncertainty over the timing has weighed on investor sentiment, further muddying the timeline for a hike. Falling values in U.S. and world equities complicate the Fed’s decision.

4. Natural market cycles: Markets are cyclical in nature. Declines, though unsettling, are normal and necessary when asset prices climb too high. The S&P 500 index has steadily risen since March 2009, but hadn’t experienced a 10 percent correction since mid-2011. Analysis by Raymond James experts shows the S&P 500, on average, endures three 5-percent pullbacks and one 10-percent correction every year.

Certainly no one knows for sure – but we believe that the four forces above provide a significant part of the explanation or cause.

Will there be a retest of the recent market lows?

After seeing a nearly 10% drop in stocks, stocks rebounded rather quickly by what Jeffrey Saut, Chief Investment Strategist at Raymond James, would term a “throwback rally” – something that is rather normal from a historical standpoint.  Jeff also points out:

“The follow-up from a 2 – 7 session ‘throwback rally,’ from a massively oversold condition, typically leads to a downside retest.”

Moreover, it looks like that retest began Monday 8/31/15. According to Jeff Saut, a key factor will be whether a retest brings about new lows (below 1867); which could mean further losses.

Another market commentator and Wharton finance professor, Jeremy Siegel, opined recently:

“When there’s a sharp decline and then a rally, usually you’ll get another downward leg that will test that decline.”

According to Professor Siegel, the Dow Jones may ultimately drop 15% from recent highs before recovering to around 19,000 by year-end. He doesn’t see a recession in the US or a bear market.  Time will tell – Saut and Siegel are veterans with vast historical perspective.

While some of the more negative news is grabbing the headlines, as you would expect there are a variety of balancing factors at play.

Recent data reports continue to suggest moderately strong growth in the U.S. economy. Consumer spending improved in July, durable goods orders increased, the housing market is strengthening, and household income advanced. The estimate of second quarter GDP growth was revised to a 3.7% annualized rate (from 2.3% in the advance estimate).

Oil prices reached a six-year low in recent weeks, which should be good for the American consumer, but less so for energy companies. Still, as energy prices stabilize, inflation should move somewhat higher and Federal Reserve policymakers will begin to raise short-term interest rates ahead of that.

The Federal Reserve’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming saw central bankers discussing inflation, the global economy and the fallout from China’s economic woes, but officials provided no clear guidance as to the timing of the first increase in the federal funds target rate. The St. Louis and Cleveland Fed Bank presidents reiterated, ahead of the retreat, that U.S. fundamentals remain strong and a September rate hike is still a possibility.

“It shouldn’t really matter whether the Fed begins to raise rates in September, late October, or mid-December,” noted Raymond James Chief Economist Scott Brown on August 31st. “The important thing is the pace of tightening beyond that first move …The economy has made enough progress and is strong enough that it can easily withstand a small increase in rates.”

A retest is certainly possible, but recession is not imminent and many see higher stock prices by year-end.

What to Do?

During volatile times, dispensing the advice of “Do nothing because you’re a long term investor” almost seems pedestrian and stale.  As shared by Angela, a few things to consider include (1) Make sure your long-term allocation is still appropriate, (2) Double check that your time frame is correct for the investments in your portfolio, and(3) Review and consider your risk tolerance for those investments.  Additionally, while all of the news on bonds in general is negative due to expected interest rate increases – US Treasuries and high quality corporate bonds still provide some of the best diversification or negative correlation when stocks slump.  Additionally, this is a good reminder to review expected cash needs and set aside the appropriate amount.

I’m sharing all this with you to keep you informed about global economic movements and market events. I understand that seeing the short-term impact of volatility on your portfolio can be unsettling. During uncertain times, it can be assuring to stick to the investment strategy that we have developed together. For 30 years now, The Center’s focus has remained on disciplined investing and it has served generations of clients. In the meantime, we’ll continue to monitor market developments and update you accordingly.  Should you have any questions about the markets or your long-term financial plan, feel free to contact us. We are here to help.

Sincerely,

Timothy Wyman, CFP™, JD

Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD is the Managing Partner and Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. and is a contributor to national media and publications such as Forbes and The Wall Street Journal and has appeared on Good Morning America Weekend Edition and WDIV Channel 4. A leader in his profession, Tim served on the National Board of Directors for the 28,000 member Financial Planning Association™ (FPA®), mentored many CFP® practitioners and is a frequent speaker to organizations and businesses on various financial planning topics.

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The opinions expressed in this update are those of Timothy Wyman and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James, and is subject to change without notice.

Investing involves risk, and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Past performance is not an indication of future results and there is no assurance the trends mentioned will continue or that any forecasted events will occur. Investors cannot invest directly in an index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index of 30 widely held stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of all common stocks listed on the NASDAQ National Stock Market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. International investing involves additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. The performance noted does not include fees or charges, which would reduce an investor's returns. The process of rebalancing may result in tax consequences.

Raymond James Financial Services does not accept orders and/or instructions regarding your account by e-mail, voice mail, fax or any alternate method. Transactional details do not supersede normal trade confirmations or statements. E-mail sent through the Internet is not secure or confidential. Raymond James Financial Services reserves the right to monitor all e-mail. Any information provided in this e-mail has been prepared from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by Raymond James Financial Services and is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Any information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Raymond James Financial Services and its employees may own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities mentioned in this e-mail. This e-mail is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and may contain confidential and/or privileged material. Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking of any action in reliance upon, this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited. If you received this message in error, please contact the sender immediately and delete the material from your computer.

When the experts need financial perspective – who do they call? Center for Financial Planning of course

Contributed by: Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

Rod Meloni of Channel 4 visited with Tim Wyman, CFP®, JD on August 24, 2015 as he breaks down the market turmoil. 

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of speakers and Tim Wyman and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged index of securities traded on the NASDAQ system. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions of Rod Meloni. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. C15-034569

Stock Market Update

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

In the past week the S&P 500 tumbled amid increased volatility, wiping out all gains year to date and sending the index into negative territory.  Activity like this can be unsettling so please find some of our thoughts and observations following. 

Why is this happening?

• Uncertainty around whether or not the FED will raise rates next month is concerning in general.  Markets don’t like this uncertainty as we move closer to September.

• Weak growth in China and Emerging markets are spilling over into commodities and the currency markets causing concern in general that there will be contagion to local markets.

What have we done to prepare?

• We expect volatility like this to happen from time to time.  The past several years have been an anomaly with little to no volatility.  Reacting is rarely a profitable move for an investor but acting ahead of time can be.  We have structured a portion of portfolios with active managers that have been building cash positions for just these moments.  When they see attractive opportunities they can put that cash to work.

• Bonds were never abandoned; in fact, we have increased our exposure here over the past year.  Even when faced with rising interest rates, we believe bonds are an important piece of diversification as they have held up very well in this short downturn giving positive performance.

• We utilize a bucket strategy when managing clients’ accounts to provide cash flow that is needed even when markets are at their most volatile.  The first bucket of defense is the cash that we hold to fund any current cash flow needs.  The next bucket is short term and high quality bonds which as mentioned above usually hold up well in a market rout.  Your personal situation dictates how much is appropriate to hold within these buckets.

What else can you do?

• Make sure your long-term allocation is still appropriate

• Double check thatyour time frame is correct for the investments in your portfolio

• Review and consider your risk tolerance for those investments

A correction doesn’t necessarily mean a recession is looming.  None of the indicators we are following point to a recession on the horizon so we feel this is just a temporary pullback.  This is the time when you lean on your financial planner to help you make the right decisions for your goals and needs and not act out of panic or fear.  Please feel free to reach out to us with any concerns or questions you may have, we are here for you!

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Individuals cannot invest directly in any index. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss.

Second Quarter Investment Pulse

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®

We’ve been busy meeting with investment managers this past quarter.  It’s always great to dig into the latest research and get a fresh perspective and some new ideas.  Angela Palacios shares some of the most notable take-aways from our second quarter meetings:

Scott Davis, Portfolio Manager Columbia Dividend Income

It is always a pleasure to receive a visit from Scott.  We have had the privilege to meet with him several times over the past years and each time we seem to glean interesting information.  He was pleased and flattered to be recently named by Morningstar as one of their “Ultimate Stock pickers.”  We discussed several top of mind topics, starting with the potential upcoming interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve.  Scott told us he wished they would just get it over with and do the first one soon.  He stated that markets move so quickly these days you want to be positioned for this happening well in advance.

Scott is also growing increasingly concerned over companies that are issuing debt at low rates today to buy back stock.  The concern isn’t necessarily for now, but in the future when they become dependent on this debt and need to refinance that debt at much higher rates.  Some companies could be in a lot of trouble at that point.

Heidi Richardson, Head of Investment Strategy for US iShares

Heidi was also talking about a rate hike, among other things.  She gave her list of things to know and do.

5 things to know:

1. Federal reserve should hike rates soon but she expects rates to remain low

2. Central Bank divergences (while US and England are raising interest rates, Japan, Canada and Europe are lowering rates)

3. She expects stocks to be a bumpy ride (low volatility of the past 5 years is over)

4. US economy is only inching upward slowly (they expect GDP growth of 2.5% this year)

5. Inflation is still very low and Europe will see deflation

5 things to do:

1. Prefer stocks over bonds (although bonds are still an important part of diversification)

2. Look overseas for investment opportunities

3. Watch your step in bonds (be choosy as many look fully to overvalued and liquidity may be sketchy)

4. Resist the urge to exit (fear of a bubble leads many to sit on the sidelines and wait to invest, but over time they expect the market to move higher)

5. Seek growth in a low growth world (low rates on cash continue to hurt those holding it)

Jeff Saut, Chief Investment Strategist and Managing Director of Equity Research for Raymond James

Jeff presented at the Raymond James conference in April and gave us his stages of a secular bull market (which he believes we are in now): 

1. Aftershock and rebuilding: this is the realization that you survived a bear market. Rebuilding is a sea change where stocks no longer react to negative news.

2. Guarded optimism: bear markets redistribute stocks to the rightful owners (this is the stage he thinks we are in).

3. Enthusiasm: fun stage of the bull market where generally everything you touch makes a profit.

4. Exuberance: feelings grow as nothing can go wrong, he feels we have a long way to go before we get to this stage.

5. Unreality: advanced stage of exuberance, frantic and chaotic, volumes pick up and there is a lot of turnover.

6. Cold Water and disillusionment: bursting of the bubble.

Angela Palacios, CFP® is the Portfolio Manager at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor to Money Centered as well as investment updates at The Center.

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Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Scott Davis, Heidi Richardson or the companies they represent. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Scott Davis, Heidi Richardson or the companies they represent.  This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation.  Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James.  The information has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.  Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors.  Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Past performance is  not a guarantee of future results.

Green Money: Tracking the Socially Responsible Investing Trend

Contributed by: Laurie Renchik, CFP®, MBA

The concept of using investment dollars to support environmental and societal initiatives is not a new idea.  For decades socially responsible investing, also called SRI, has been recognized as a broad investment category spurred on by religious values, social movements and concerns about health and the environment. Today the SRI landscape is changing.  There are new strategies that fall under the responsible investing umbrella with differing objectives, more exposure to a wider range of asset classes and a growing number of investment dollars being put to work.  This is good news for investors who have personal and financial goals to incorporate responsible investment strategies into their portfolios.

Navigating this emerging landscape is nuanced because there is no single term that describes the multiple approaches evolving from the original concept of responsible investing. Socially responsible investing (SRI), ESG investing (environmental, social and governance) and Impact investing make up three main categories. There are some distinct differences between the three.

At the most basic level, here are the philosophical guideposts:

SRI Investing:  Creating a portfolio that attempts to avoid investments in certain stocks or industries through negative screening according to defined ethical guidelines.

ESG Investing:  Integrating environmental, social and governance factors into fundamental investment analysis to the extent they are material to investment performance.

Impact Investing:  Investing in projects or companies with the express goal of effecting mission-related social or environmental change.

What does responsible investing mean to you? 

Incorporating responsible investment strategies into your portfolio is not a one-size-fits-all solution.  Your goals are specific to you and your objectives for the future.  Talk with your financial planner to better understand the opportunities available today to integrate responsible investment strategies in your portfolio.    

Laurie Renchik, CFP®, MBA is a Partner and Senior Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc. In addition to working with women who are in the midst of a transition (career change, receiving an inheritance, losing a life partner, divorce or remarriage), Laurie works with clients who are planning for retirement. Laurie was named to the 2013 Five Star Wealth Managers list in Detroit Hour magazine, is a member of the Leadership Oakland Alumni Association and in addition to her frequent contributions to Money Centered, she manages and is a frequent contributor to Center Connections at The Center.

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Five Star Award is based on advisor being credentialed as an investment advisory representative (IAR), a FINRA registered representative, a CPA or a licensed attorney, including education and professional designations, actively employed in the industry for five years, favorable regulatory and complaint history review, fulfillment of firm review based on internal firm standards, accepting new clients, one- and five-year client retention rates, non-institutional discretionary and/or non-discretionary client assets administered, number of client households served.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Laurie Renchik and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Does Investing Feel Overwhelming? You’re Not Alone.

This article is contributed by guest blogger Laura Garfield, a social media and marketing contractor for The Center and the author of The NeXt  Revolution, a business book researching the generational behavior of women in the workplace.

No matter your tax bracket or the credentials you have tacked on to the end your name, many women agree on at least this one thing:

Decisions on Investing can feel Overwhelming

I recently sat in on a session about Women and Investing at the Raymond James National Conference. The point was hammered home by Kristin Gibson, the Senior Director of Sales & Strategic Partnerships at Russell Investments. She said in a survey of high net worth women, most described investing as:

 “Overwhelming”

 “Complicated”

“Boring”

“Latin”

 These may not be your adjectives of choice. In fact, you may buck the trend and love every nuance of the investing process (I certainly know a few of these women … but can’t claim to be among them). But in general, women want to find a way to make investing not feel like scaling a steep climbing wall in heels and a pencil skirt. Some way to make investing approachable.

Using Your Natural Advantage

Women are naturally strong investors. It’s not a stereotype. Research backs this up. “When it comes to making investment decisions, gender plays a larger role than many people realize,” reports USAToday. Factors like risk aversion, ability to ask for advice, and taking your time … these are all traits that fall on the female side of the gender divide. Research indicates that women investors have these natural advantages:

• Are not over confident

• Are realistic and risk averse

• Research more and ask questions

When it comes to behavioral economics, the Washington Post interviewed Terry Odean, a University of California professor who has studied stock picking by gender for more than two decades. In a seven-year study, Odean found single female investors outperformed single men by 2.3 percent while female investment groups outperformed male counterparts by 4.6 percent. Odean told the Washington Post, “In our research, male investors traded 45 percent more than female investors. Men are just making a lot more bad decisions than women. More trading leads to lower performance.”

Finding the Right Ear

So back to the Overwhelming/Complicated/Boring/Latin part of the investing equation, if you’re going to flip those adjectives with a boost from your feminine advantage, you may need some help. A key to that is picking the right investment advisor. Research shows that women and men gather information about investing differently.

• Women want better communication, the chance to say what they mean

• Women build trust by collaborating & sharing information

In Kristin Gibson’s session at the conference, she summed up what most women are looking for in a financial advisor like this:

“I want someone who understands my situation.”

Whether that’s a man or a woman shouldn’t matter. What does matter is how well the advisor can listen, communicate and understand your needs. You may be looking for “straightforward” or you might want someone who is “motivational”. Whatever your word, when you find the best fit, that advisor will help you translate “investing” from Latin into English. If they can turn “boring” into “captivating” then you’ve really found a keeper.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Laura Garfield and those cited/quoted and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the services of Laura Garfield, Kristin Gibson or Russell Investments. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

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