2021 Third Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Crisp Air, Cool Breeze, Fall Leaves. All the things that Autumn brings here in Michigan. As the third quarter comes to a close and we enter the last quarter of 2021, we find a cool breeze passing through markets as volatility picks up - as is often the case in September and October. A diversified benchmark portfolio consisting of 60% stocks (split between U.S.-S&P 500 and International-MSCI EAFE) and 40% bonds (Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index) is up just over 7% year-to-date as of September 30th, with the S&P 500 leading the way at +15.9%, international stocks (MSCI EAFE) at +8.35%, and U.S. Aggregate Bonds at -1.55%.

Check out this video to recap some of our thoughts this quarter and continue to read below for some more detailed insight!

Volatility has picked up as the recovery appears to be in a holding pattern. Investors worry about the delta strain and are concerned about a surge in additional strains that could come with the winter flu season. Stock markets don’t have a clear driver of upward returns right now, and we are currently in the middle of two of the most challenging months (September and October) of the year historically for markets. Until September, the S&P 500 hadn’t experienced a 5% decline (which usually occurs 2-4 times per year) since October 2020. The market broke this long streak in late September. Headlines from the government, worry about bonds rates increasing, Chinese real estate headlines, and inflation fears have caused a pause in the steady upside we all had grown quite comfortable to!

It’s important to remember markets frequently experience short-term pullbacks. The below chart shows intra-year stock market declines (red dot and number), as well as the market’s return for the full year (gray bar). This chart shows us that the market is capable of recovering from intra-year drops and still finishing the year in positive territory, which helps us remember to stay the course even when markets get choppy!

Fed Tapering – Will It Cause Volatility?

Google searches on tapering peaked in late August and again in late September surrounding the Federal Reserve (the Fed) meeting. The Fed has fully telegraphed their intention to make this move that, likely, isn’t starting until late this year. It’s important to remember that tapering isn’t tightening. The Fed is lessening the rate they are buying government bonds. Investors wonder, “Will interest rates spike when they stop buying so much?” The answer is maybe. However, there won’t be as much debt being issued next year without fiscal stimulus as has been in the past year and a half. So, current buyers other than the Fed should be able to absorb supply. Also, U.S. Treasury bonds are still paying much more than other government’s bonds that are similar in quality. If rates go up, they will likely be met with headwinds because pension funds and other governments will want that increased yield buying the bonds and thus forcing rates back down again.

Over the summer, the Fed started to unwind the secondary market corporate credit facility that was announced early on in the pandemic to support corporate bonds and fixed income exchange-traded funds. The Fed’s holdings peaked at $14.2 Billion as the move quickly restored stability in markets at the time – March 2020 - and no further action was needed. They are planning the sales in an orderly fashion as not to disrupt markets.

Washington D.C. – A Game of Political Chicken

There have been a lot of headlines toward the end of the third quarter from the government, including government shutdown possibility, reconciliation, infrastructure bill, debt limit increase, and tax increase plans. 

First, the temporary funding bill and debt limit caused short-term volatility as investors were nervous that politicians not seeing eye-to-eye would cause another government shutdown or worse - default on U.S. debt. Fortunately, the President signed a bill funding the government through December 3rd, just hours before the deadline. You may not realize how often we have stood at this precipice before, though. According to the Congressional Research Service and MFS, “There have been 21 government shutdowns in history when our nation’s lawmakers failed to agree on spending bills to fund government outlays for a fiscal year that begins annually on October 1st. The most recent shutdown, a 35-day stoppage that ended on 1/25/19, was the longest closure in history. 11 of the 21 shutdowns lasted three days or less.” Interestingly enough, there are many similarities between now and 2013 when the FED was rolling out their plan for tapering, debt ceiling debate, and government shutdown. While what happened in the past isn’t necessarily what is going to happen now, we believe it offers a helpful perspective. You can see that in 2013 there was an uptick in volatility and a short-term market retreat, but overall the markets continued to move higher through year-end.

Source: Raymond James Chief Investment Officer, Larry Adam

In September, we gained some clarity on the tax increase proposals to assist in paying for the infrastructure bill. Check out our blog on some of the details, as well as our upcoming webinar! Capital gains tax proposals can potentially disrupt markets in the near term, but the increase in those taxes would go into effect as of mid-September 2021 (retroactively). This is important because it prevents a rush of selling to harvest capital gains before an effective date.

China Headlines

Why has China and emerging markets lagged recently? China is the 2nd biggest economy in the world and the 2nd biggest equity market in the world. China represents 35% of the Emerging Market index, so when China lags, the entire asset class tends to lag too. Active management can be important in this area to navigate the complexities of these varying countries. China has shifted gears recently, choosing to focus on social stability (or “Common prosperity”) rather than pure growth as in the past. China’s Communist Party has turned its eye to the ultra-wealthy, politically outspoken citizens and technology usage.

Most alarmingly, however, has been Evergrande’s debt woes. Evergrande is one of China’s largest real estate developers with a massive amount of debt. They have been forced to sell off assets in order to meet debt repayments, which is having a ripple effect through their customers, suppliers, competitors, and employees. This is so impactful because one-third of China’s Gross Domestic Product is related to real estate. As you can see in the chart below, housing represents over three-quarters of financial assets in China versus a much lower percentage (less than one-third) here in the U.S.

Initially, there was fear of contagion spreading from the Chinese High Yield debt market to the U.S., but this hasn’t occurred.

We remain disciplined in the consistent and proactive execution of our investment process that is anchored in the fundamentals of asset allocation, rebalancing, and patience. From time to time, we may choose to express our forward-looking opinions of the state of stock and bond markets but always strive to do so without subjecting you to unnecessary risks. Even though we close this quarterly note similarly each time, please understand that we thank you for the trust you place in us to guide you through your investment journey!

We have more thoughts to share on investment current events coming soon. Stay tuned for our investment blogs about inflation hedges and Biden’s corporate tax rate proposal.

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Dividends are not guaranteed and must be authorized by the company's board of directors. Special Purpose Acquisition Companies may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should be familiar with the unique characteristics, risks and return potential of SPACs, including the risk that the acquisition may not occur or that the customer's investment may decline in value even if the acquisition is completed. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Proactive Planning Moves for an Evolving Tax Environment

Contributed by: Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD

Contributed by: Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®

Just about every financial decision and transaction that we make has an income tax component or consequence. With federal marginal rates currently as high as 37%, state income tax rates as high as 13%, and additional surcharges for high-income earners, being efficient with income tax planning is paramount in accumulating or conserving wealth.  

Moreover, President Biden is planning the first major federal tax hike since 1993 that appears likely to be passed this year, at least in part. If passed, tax measures would likely take effect in 2022, with the potential for some measures to be applied retroactively even into 2021. 

At The Center, we have a long history and experience working with our clients and their tax preparers to drive down tax costs as much as possible. Our planning team may address the following for our clients’ benefit:

Marginal Tax Rate: The marginal tax rate is the tax rate paid on the next or last dollar of income. Current federal marginal rates go from 10% up to 37%. Your current, and expected future, marginal rate provides insight into decisions such as accelerating or delaying income as well as whether municipal bonds or taxable bonds are most efficient. Your marginal bracket also determines what long-term capital gains rate is applied. The current highest marginal bracket is 37% (and current proposed tax legislation could raise the upper rate to 39.6%).

Average or Effective Tax Rate: In addition to your marginal tax rate, the average rate helps us understand your overall tax picture. To determine your average rate, divide the total tax paid by your total income. For example, one might be in the 35% marginal tax bracket, but their average tax rate might be closer to 25%.

Itemized vs. Standard Deduction: Are you itemizing deductions, or does the standard deduction provide a greater benefit? With current limitations on itemized deductions, such as state & local income taxes and real estate taxes capped at $10k, many find that they no longer itemize deductions unless they “bunch.” For instance, bunching may involve grouping five years’ worth of charitable donations into one year. Many people do this by gifting to a vehicle like a Donor Advised Fund so the tax deduction may be recognized immediately, but the funds then get divvied out to charity more slowly over time. Essentially, bunching itemized deductions, such as charitable gifts, every other or few years typically provides the most efficient tax strategy.

Long Term Capital Gains: Under current law, long-term capital gains (securities held longer than 12 months) receive preferential tax rates vs. ordinary income tax rates. There are three brackets 0%, 15%, and 20%. Current proposed tax legislation could raise this rate to 25% for the highest income earners.

Carry Forward Losses: The goal of investing is to make money. One strategy to use when an individual investment loses value is to “harvest the loss.” Harvesting losses can be valuable as they offset capital gains dollar for dollar. If you have extra or additional losses, up to $3,000/year can also be used to offset ordinary income. Ideally, this harvesting of losses should be done on an ongoing basis rather than only at the end of a quarter or year.

Qualified Dividends: Qualified dividends are dividends taxed at a long-term capital gains rate instead of your ordinary income tax rate, which is generally higher. All things being equal, we would rather have dividend income that is considered qualified to achieve greater tax efficiency.  

Roth Conversion Opportunities: Sometimes paying tax today versus later is a tax-efficient strategy. If you feel that you will be in a higher bracket later, or even that your beneficiaries may be at a higher tax bracket, full or partial Roth conversions can be employed to recognize that income today at a lower rate. Roth money can be used to provide tax-free and RMD free retirement income. Having Roth dollars also provides opportunities to optimize your current marginal bracket as part of a comprehensive retirement income plan. 

IRMAA Surcharges: Our tax code contains provisions that may be described as “hidden taxes.” One such tax includes the Medicare income-related monthly adjustment amount (or IRMAA), which is an extra surcharge based on your total income (specifically Modified Adjusted Gross Income). Meaning, depending upon your income, you might pay a higher premium for Medicare (Part B and D). For example, in 2021, a joint couple pays $148.50/month when their income is less than $176k. Once you go a dollar over, the premium now becomes $220.20/month per person and is added to your Medicare premiums – a hidden tax. There are additional thresholds, and the current maximum premium for those with income over $750k is a total of $582/month each. Managing brackets by limiting or decreasing income, such as using Qualified Charitable Distributions from an IRA, can reduce your surcharge.

Net Investment Income (NII) Tax: Another so-called hidden tax applies to single taxpayers with MAGI above $200k and $250k for couples filing jointly. Investment income over these thresholds contains an additional 3.8% tax. So, while the stated maximum capital gains rate is 20%, the highest long-term capital gains rate is actually 23.8% with the surtax (before taking state taxes into account).

Phase-outs: At last count, there are over 50 tax credits that may be available to taxpayers. Unfortunately, they are subject to a variety of income phase-outs, so careful planning is required.

The Biden tax plan, if passed, contains additional income and estate tax provisions that we are closely monitoring including, but not limited to:

• New tax increases on households earning more than $400k, including upping the top tax rate to 39.6% and lowering the amount of income needed to reach that top bracket

• Increasing the top long-term capital gains rate from 20% to 25% 

• Restricting many tax and estate planning techniques, including backdoor Roth IRA conversions, the ability to convert pretax IRA dollars into Roth IRA dollars for high earners, and eliminating intentionally defective grantor trusts (a strategy used to move assets out of one’s taxable estate)

• While the Biden plan appears to exclude any “wealth tax” such as proposed by Senator Elizabeth Warren, there may be changes to estate tax provisions such as decreasing the Estate Exemption Equivalent from $11.77M per person to $5M

• Introducing and expanding additional child tax credits 

Lastly, we find that efficient tax planning considers not only your current year taxes, but a plan that considers several years or even several generations. Assuming an increase in individual (and corporate) tax rates, the stakes will be even higher and proper planning can help put more in your pocket.  

Stay tuned for an upcoming video message in November intended to keep you in the loop with proposed tax changes. Learn more about the American Families Tax Plan proposal HERE.

Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD, Timothy Wyman, CFP®, JD, is the Managing Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Tim earned a place on Forbes’ Best-In-State Wealth Advisors List in Michigan¹ in 2021 for the fourth consecutive year. He was also named a 2020 Financial Times 400 Top Financial Advisor² for the third consecutive year.

Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®, is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional and Director of Operations at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She works with clients and their families to achieve their financial planning goals and also leads the client service, marketing, finance, and human resources departments.

While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Unless certain criteria are met, Roth IRA owners must be 59½ or older and have held the IRA for five years before tax-free withdrawals are permitted. Additionally, each converted amount may be subject to its own five-year holding period. Converting a traditional IRA into a Roth IRA has tax implications. Investors should consult a tax advisor before deciding to do a conversion.

How to Reduce the Risks of Dementia and Diminished Capacity to Your Retirement Plan

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

Senility is what they used to call it and it only happened to the very elderly like our great grandparents.  Surely, not us. We are healthy, educated, and financially well off, so we don’t need to talk about senility or plan for it. THINK AGAIN!

Senility is now known as Alzheimer’s, a disease that accounts for 60-80% of dementia. The statistics are alarming! According to the Alzheimer’s Association, more than 1 in 9 people over age 65 have Alzheimer’s disease. The chances of an Alzheimer’s diagnosis doubles every five years after age 65 (beginning at approximately 5.3% at age 65 and going from there).   If the disease runs in your family, a head injury, hypertension, diabetes, stress, excess weight, depression, and many other conditions increase your risk of diagnosis.

Risks of Not Planning

I don’t need to tell you that losing your memory is a scary proposition. The fact that you could live for years (if you are otherwise healthy) without knowing who you are, where you are, who any of your loved ones are, and not recall your short nor most of your long-term past is frightening.  Even more disturbing is that you also forget how to care for yourself, and your body begins to forget how to function.  Family may be able to assist you at first, but as time goes on professional care is usually needed.  A few thousand per month for at-home caregivers is not out of the question.  As more care is required, the few thousand dollars per month can quickly become five thousand to ten or twelve thousand dollars a month, depending on the level of care needed and where you live. The impact on your financials, if you haven’t planned, can be detrimental.

In addition to the care risks, there are capacity risks.  Those who develop Alzheimer’s or related dementia go through a period (sometimes before their diagnosis or possibly early in their diagnosis) when their capacity is considered “diminished.”  They are not yet considered fully incapable of making their own decisions. In other words, the right to make decisions has not yet been taken from them, but their ability to make decisions is compromised.  In this stage of the game, we are generally watching for behavioral changes in clients:

• Missing Appointments

• Getting confused about instructions/having difficulty following instructions

• Making more frequent calls to the office to ask the same questions

• Trouble handling paperwork

• Difficulty recalling decisions or actions

• Changes to mood or personality

• Poor judgment

• Memory Loss (generally)

• Difficulty with basic financial concepts

Concerns that are more significant can be financial fraud and exploitation. Clients with diminished capacity are incredibly vulnerable to others who try to take advantage of their inability to understand what is or is not real. Unfortunately, 1 in 10 seniors over age 65 are victims of financial exploitation, according to the Government Accountability Office, with losses totaling over $3 billion annually. While most of this exploitation is at the hands of strangers, sometimes family, friends, and caregivers exploit the vulnerable.

Proactive Solutions

Now that I have completely frightened you about dementia and diminished capacity, let’s take a step back and look at what we can and should be doing to plan and protect your plan proactively against these risks.

From a personal health perspective, the Alzheimer’s Association suggests:

• Combined physical and mental exercise

• Continuous Learning

• Social Engagement

• Get good sleep

• Eat a healthy diet (Mediterranean Diet recommended)

From a financial planning perspective, it makes sense to put together a proactive aging strategy as part of your retirement planning to address the potential risks of dementia/Alzheimer’s/diminished capacity on your comprehensive financial plan.  What should this aging strategy address?

•  Legal Documents

• Care

• Finances

• Legacy

Dementia and diminished capacity are scary.  We don’t want to think about a time when we might not remember our names, remember our loved ones, or even recognize our reflections in the mirror. Dementia and diminished capacity can wreak havoc on our families and our financial security if we don’t plan. Take steps today to put together an aging strategy so that you and your loved ones are prepared. Preparation is the best defense!  If you or anyone you know need assistance with this topic, please let us know.  We are always happy to help!

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

Biden’s “American Families Tax Plan” Proposal and How It Could Affect You

Contributed by: Josh Bitel, CFP®

Ever since President Joe Biden has taken office, there has been much talk about how the tax landscape may change. On September 13th, Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee released their new tax proposals. While the outcome may differ from the proposals listed below, we always want to keep you informed on proposed changes. Highlights are summarized below.

 New Top Ordinary Income Tax and Capital Gains Rate

Perhaps the most talked about piece of the proposal is the return of the 39.6% income tax bracket. This rate was previously in place from 2013-2017 but reduced to 37% with the Tax Cuts And Jobs Act of 2017. However, this new proposal does not simply replace the 37% bracket with the 39.6%. Instead, it reduces the amount of income a taxpayer can have before being placed in that top bracket. Single taxpayers making over $400,000 or married couples making over $450,000 will be in the new top bracket under this proposal.

 Along with ordinary income tax brackets, top capital gains tax brackets may also change. The major difference between this change and the ordinary income tax change is that (if approved) this will go into effect immediately and impact all capital gains from that point forward. In contrast, the ordinary income tax brackets won’t change until 2022. See the chart below for proposed capital gains tax changes.

Proposed Capital Gains Tax Changes

Changes to Roth IRA Strategies

 This one may hurt more for advisors. If enacted, this part of the proposal prohibits converting after-tax dollars held in retirement accounts to Roth IRAs. In other words, the “backdoor Roth IRA” and the “Mega backdoor Roth IRA” would be left in the dust.

 Another proposed change would go a bit further. In 2032, Roth CONVERSIONS for high-income earners would be prohibited. Any single person earning over $400,000, or married couples earning over $450,000, would be impacted by this rule.

These are just a few of the many changes proposed by Democrats on the House Ways and Means Committee. Of course, the actual bill may look drastically different than the proposals listed in this blog. Planners here at The Center will be sure to stay on top of any changes and keep you informed as they come out.

Josh Bitel, CFP® is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He conducts financial planning analysis for clients and has a special interest in retirement income analysis.

Finding Meaningful Ways to Spend When Your Financial Plan Allows

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

Several months ago, I wrote about clients who had developed such great savings habits to retire that they were shocked they could spend more in retirement than they had been spending in pre-retirement (“Can You Change Your Spending Habits in Retirement”). Of course, by the time this happens, most clients realize that it is very difficult, if not impossible, to change their spending habits or their lifestyle in general. Ultimately, they have trouble spending the money they have available to them.

I continue to have discussions in financial planning reviews with these clients when their retirement spending continues to be well below what is possible for their long-term financial success. Often this generates meaningful conversations regarding what might be possible with the excess funds, for the clients to make their lives more enjoyable and valuable, and for their families and communities.

Here are just some of the ideas that have come out of these discussions:

• Annual gifting to children — in cash or specifically for the individual needs for the children and/or their families.

• Assisting with grandchildren’s education.

• Taking a memorable trip(s) that the client has always dreamed of taking.

• Creating or contributing to a scholarship program at the client’s former school/university.

• Making a significant donation to a charity that has special meaning to the client.

• Investing in a hobby that has significant meaning/value to the client.

• Helping a family member that is struggling financially.

While spending more than what is necessary is still not easy for most of these clients, they begin to find that it makes more sense and is easier to do when the spending is meaningful for them, their families, or their community. And with the help of a financial advisor along the way to make sure that the spending is still in line with their plan, even if they do those things that are meaningful (and sometimes fun), they can move forward with confidence and find new ways to be creative with their spending.

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

Nick Boguth Achieves CFA Designation

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

This summer, Nick completed his journey to obtain his Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA®) designation.  Nick started as an intern with the Center in May 2014, eventually joining us full time after graduating from the University of Michigan (Go Blue!) with a degree in Economics and Statistics.  Almost immediately after starting full-time, he began the long road to achieving his CFA® designation over five years ago.

Nicholas Boguth, newly minted Chartered Financial Analyst

What is the CFA® Designation?

The curriculum builds a strong educational foundation of advanced investment analysis and real-world portfolio management skills.  Upon completion, the average designation holder has spent roughly 1,000 hours studying! 

There are three levels that Nick will have to pass and several other hurdles before he can utilize the designation:

• CFA level 1 – tests your basic knowledge and comprehension focused on investment tools and ethics.

• CFA level 2 – tests more complex analysis along with a focus on valuing assets

• CFA level 3 – requires a synthesis of all the concepts and analytical methods in various applications for effective portfolio management and wealth planning.

Along with passing the courses and the exams, Nick must have four years of work experience in investment decision-making, which he has earned with his role as Portfolio Administrator here at the Center.  He must also agree to follow a rigorous Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct and become a member of the CFA Institute. 

Is this Easy?

While Nick may have made it seem easy to the rest of us, it is far from easy.  It is a popular designation to seek out.  Each year nearly 200,000 people from all over the world register to take one of the exams offered only once per year!  The pass rate for each level is usually only around 40%.

As with everything else, the examinations were set back due to COVID.  Nick persevered through COVID delays, planning a wedding, newborn twins, and two home purchases and renovations. When I asked Nick his thoughts on the program, he said:

The entire process was incredibly rewarding. I learned more than I ever thought I would over the past few years. It was a challenging road to pass the final level, and I was absolutely thrilled to complete it, but it feels like just the beginning. I’m looking forward to putting this knowledge to good use here at The Center in a constant effort to provide clients with the best investment experience possible.

Nick’s education and passion for research already adds more depth to The Center’s Investment Department and Committee in helping us shape portfolios for clients!  Look for many more great things to come from Nick!  Way to go, Nick!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Inflation and Stock Returns

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

There is a lot of talk about inflation in the news lately, and whether or not the recent spike is “transitory” or if the recent rise in price levels will persist into the coming months, years, or even longer. The problem with forecasting inflation is that it cannot be accurately forecasted. It is a complex topic with ever-changing variables beyond the Fed and money supply including (but not limited to) consumer spending, saving rates, supply chains, government policy, demographics, technological advancements, and much more.

For some high-level context, I wanted to look at the relationship between inflation and stock returns over the past 30 years.

Below, you’ll see a scatter-plot of 1-year changes in CPI and the S&P500. What stands out to me is that an overwhelming majority of those dots are in the top right corner of the graph – positive inflation and positive stock returns. A lot of news headlines we see will put the word “fear” directly next to the word “inflation” because, well…that is what headline writers are paid to do. The reality is that if you look at the long term history of stock performance, you will see that it is positive a vast majority of the time regardless of what happened with inflation.

Source: Morningstar Direct. S&P 500 TR. Monthly return data.

 Investors need to prepare one way or another, and a great way to do that is to talk to your financial advisor and make sure that you are setting yourself up for success no matter what happens with inflation. Helping to maximize your probability of success is something we help all of our clients with, and it may look different for each investor depending on time horizon, risk tolerance, and investing/spending goals. Give us a call or shoot us an email if you have any questions on how to help maximize yours.

Nicholas Boguth is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Indices are not available for direct investment.  Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Nick Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

Crain’s Cool Places to Work: Five Years Running

Contributed by: Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

We are happy to announce The Center has been awarded Crain’s 2021 Cool Places to Work* in Michigan for the fifth consecutive year!  Crain’s Cool Places to Work was designed to identify, recognize and honor the best places of employment in Michigan. The 2021 Cool Places to Work in Michigan list is made up of 100 companies in three size categories: small (15-49 employees), medium (50-249), and large (250+). Companies underwent a two-part assessment. First, nominees were evaluated on their policies, practices, and demographics. Then, employees were asked to submit surveys. The combined scores determined the final rankings.

THE CENTER WAY

The Center team has spoken, and it is evident we are all proud of benefits like professional development, education reimbursement, workplace committees, and social events. Our fun culture is developed over ping-pong tournaments, chili cook-offs, and volunteer work.

After months of working remotely, The Center team gathers for a pandemic-safe, outdoor social event.

TEAMWORK…During a Pandemic

“We are especially proud of how we’re managing the curveball 2020 threw us. When COVID-19 hit, we transitioned to working remotely and formed a response committee tasked with making the office a safe place to return to,” said Lauren Adams, CFA, CFP®.

Managing office culture remotely comes with its challenges, but none were significant enough to break the incredible community our office has developed.  We’ve started a book club to keep engaged and even brought in a little competition with our bracket-style stock education game, Market Madness, and health and wellness contests throughout the pandemic.  The health and wellness contests helped keep the COVID 15lbs at bay.

Planners, Josh Bitel and Kali Hassinger, enjoy food truck treats.

Ultimately, The Center is a cool place to work because each team member contributes to a caring and positive workplace.

*This ranking is not based in anyway on the individual's abilities in regards to providing investment advice or management.  This ranking is not indicative of advisor’s future performance, is not an endorsement, and may not be representative of individual clients' experience.  Raymond James is not affiliated with (referenced organization/entity).

Planning Opportunities for LGBTQ+ Elders

Contributed by: Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®

For over 35 years, our independent wealth management firm Center for Financial Planning, Inc. has partnered with Raymond James Financial Services to achieve our mission of “Improving lives through financial planning done right.” In addition to providing our clients with custodial services for their investment accounts, Raymond James also offers a wide range of resources to The Center from everything from equity research reports to educational opportunities to stay on top of the ever-changing financial planning landscape.

One wonderful resource example is the Raymond James Pride Financial Advisors Network, a network of advisors serving the Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender, and Queer (LGBTQ+) community that was founded in 2020, and its “Inaugural Business of Pride Symposium,” held in June 2021. At the Symposium, I had the opportunity to attend a session titled, “The LGBT+ Aging Crisis – Planning Opportunities for our LGBT+ Elders,” presented by Dan Steward, National Program Director for the Human Rights Campaign Aging Project, and Sherrill Wayland, Director of National Education Initiatives for SAGE.

In the presentation, Steward and Wayland discussed practical ways for financial planners to address and better serve members of the LGBTQ+ community:

• Recognize the distinct needs of this growing and diverse community: It is estimated that there are over 2.7 million older adults that self-identify as members of the LGBTQ+ community. Citing the work of leading researcher Professor Karen Fredriksen-Goldsen, the presenters explained that within this group, however, there is a wide range of generational experiences: from the oldest “Invisible Generation” that grew up when public discussion of LGBTQ+ issues was unheard of, to “The Silent Generation” that grew up when issues were being discussed but faced heavy discrimination, to the younger “Pride Generation” where many have been out for decades. Recognizing that there are nuances within the community, but also understanding the overarching themes of discrimination and resiliency, is an important component of developing the cultural competency required to best serve these clients.

• Plan, Plan, Plan: I’ve seen firsthand how the benefits of pairing comprehensive financial planning with a thoughtfully constructed, well-diversified investment portfolio that fits the clients’ needs and objectives can be liberating and even life-changing for so many. Working with a financial planner early on can help members of the community develop good financial health and financial security that will position them well later in life. Thoughtful estate planning (including considering if wills, Durable Powers of Attorney for Healthcare and Financial Matters, and living trusts are right for the situation) become all the more critical given that members of the LGBTQ+ community still face legal discrimination in many areas. Proper insurance planning can help manage risks and protect assets, including the potential need for long-term care coverage, over a client’s lifetime.

• Be aware of the elevated risk of financial exploitation and barriers to seeking help: According to SAGE, a significant portion of the elder LGBTQ+ community does not wish to live alone, has shrinking support networks, and may be inclined to seek companionship online. These factors can conspire to put these clients at higher risk of financial exploitation (including online “sweetheart scams”) and elder abuse. At the same time, coming from a place of resilience and self-sufficiency after facing discrimination throughout their lives, LGBTQ+ elders may be reluctant to seek help. They may fear being outed if they need assistance, that they won’t be believed by authorities, the loss of financial support from the abusive person, or the prospect of living alone. Financial planners – who may be some of the most trusted people in the client’s life – must be aware of these concerns and be ready to help encourage reaching out to authorities or seeking assistance if needed.

• Know your resources: In the effort to assist, planners must know what resources are available and be cognizant of the added layer of being able to identify inclusive service providers. Steward and Wayland identified several resources that financial planners serving this community should be aware of:

  • The Long-Term Care Equality Index – The first national benchmarking system for residential long-term care communities. The index was launched in June 2021 and 184 communities participated. It was created by a partnership between the Human Rights Campaign Foundation and SAGE to promote equitable and inclusive care for LGBTQ+ older adults.

  • National Resource Center on LGBT Aging – This project is funded by the U.S. Administration for Community Living and serves as a resource center to improve the quality of services and support offered to LGBTQ+ older adults. It offers a host of resources ranging from caregiver support to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid guides to resource directories on the national and state level.

  • SAGE – SAGECare provides LGBTQ+ cultural competency training on aging issues to service providers. Their “Find a Provider” tool can be used to locate service providers that have participated in their cultural competency training programs.

 By keeping these considerations and resources in mind, financial professionals can ensure all clients –regardless of sexual orientation or gender identity – can benefit from the power of financial planning and act as true advocates for the aging LGBTQ+ community.

Lauren Adams, CFA®, CFP®, is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional and Director of Operations at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She works with clients and their families to achieve their financial planning goals and also leads the client service, marketing, finance, and human resources departments.

Death of the Stretch IRA

Contributed by: Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®

In December 2019, the SECURE Act was signed into law, it has had a material impact on current and future tax planning since its implementation in 2020. This new legislation carries several critical updates for investors, but the most meaningful change affects an individual’s plan to transfer or receive generational wealth. The elimination of the “Stretch IRA” for most non-spouse beneficiaries will change the most effective planning strategies wealth managers use to help beneficiaries who will be inheriting retirement accounts now and in the future.

The three major changes from the secure act are:

• The Required Minimum Distribution (RMD) age went from 70 ½ to 72.

• Those 70 and older can now make Traditional IRA contributions (must have earned income)

• A large scale Inherited IRA Overhaul, aimed at complicating tax withdrawal strategies from Inherited IRA accounts aka “the death of the Stretch IRA”

The most impactful change from this list is the Inherited IRA Overhaul, the contributing factor that will affect many financial and estate plans is:

• RMD’s for many inherited IRA’s are no longer required, but in most cases, the account must be liquidated within 10 years of the year of death of the primary account holder.

This change will affect all pre-tax retirement accounts, while after-tax accounts such as the Roth IRA distributions will house different tactical distribution strategies.

During the presentation we talk through some creative planning strategies that can be implemented to potentially save current and future taxes under these new legislative measures, such as: using Roth IRA conversions to reduce taxable IRA assets and increase tax-free dollars, Tax-Efficient Charitable Giving through Qualified Charitable Distributions (QCDs), and beneficiary distribution planning to nullify tax burden.

Finally, we use a pair of case studies to demonstrate how these strategies can reduce tax liability and maximize the achievement of client goals.

To better understand why a retiring couple who are beginning to plan their legacy, or an individual inheriting retirement accounts will need quality tax planning advice - now more than ever, will have their questions answered during this talk.

Applicable timestamps for specific segments are listed below for convenience:  

1:17 – Center for Financial Planning Team Introduction

2:52 – About the Host (Nick Defenthaler)

3:40 – The Secure Act Overview

7:20 – Death of “The Stretch” IRA

11:32 – Today’s Inherited IRA Rules

15:49 – Tax Environment as a Result of TCJA

18:26 – Getting Creative - Roth IRA Conversions

24:40 – Getting Creative – Tax Efficient Charitable Giving

29:12 – Getting Creative – Beneficiary Designations

31:12 – Case Study – Retiree Couple & Legacy Planning

39:38 – Case Study – Beneficiary of an Inherited IRA

49:19 – Creating a Tax Plan

Any opinions are those of Nick Defenthaler CFP®, RICP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. IRA tax deductibility and contribution eligibility may be restricted if your income exceeds certain limits, please consult with a financial professional for more information. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.