Stellantis Announces Buyout Offer

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Stellanits, the European automaker that builds vehicles for the US market under Jeep, Ram, Dodge, and Chrysler brands, recently announced that it is offering buyouts to half of its salaried US staff in a cost-cutting move. Over the past several years, the ‘Big 3’ have all offered similar buyouts, and many of our clients have come to us for guidance to ensure they make an informed decision. Above is a webinar recently hosted by partner and Senior Financial Planner Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®. During this educational session, Nick discusses five important considerations when going through a layoff or a recent job transition: 

Timestamps:

  • Cash Flow Planning - 6:01

  • Health Care & Insurance Guidance - 11:49

  • Tax Considerations - 18:19

  • Retirement Account & Pension Decisions - 23:41

  • Putting It All Together - 35:21

If you, friends, family members, or colleagues have recently received a buy-out offer from Stellantis and would like to discuss the details with one of our team’s Certified Financial Planners, please feel free to reach out, and we’d be happy to arrange a time to chat. Our team has nearly four decades of experience helping clients navigate significant life transitions such as this – we’d be honored to serve as a resource for you. 

Office Line: 248-948-7900

Website Contact Inquiry: https://www.centerfinplan.com/contact 

If you’d like to receive a copy of our “Should I roll over my 401k to an IRA?” checklist, please click HERE! 

Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Nick specializes in tax-efficient retirement income and distribution planning for clients and serves as a trusted source for local and national media publications, including WXYZ, PBS, CNBC, MSN Money, Financial Planning Magazine and OnWallStreet.com.

The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Please note, changes in tax laws may occur at any time and could have a substantial impact upon each person's situation. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Unless certain criteria are met, Roth IRA owners must be 59½ or older and have held the IRA for five years before tax-free withdrawals are permitted. Additionally, each converted amount may be subject to its own five-year holding period. Converting a traditional IRA into a Roth IRA has tax implications. Investors should consult a tax advisor before deciding to do a conversion.

Capital Gains: 3 Ways to Avoid Buying a Tax Bill

Mallory Hunt Contributed by: Mallory Hunt

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As you may be aware, when a mutual fund manager sells some of their holdings internally and realizes a gain, they are required to pass this gain on to their shareholders. More specifically, by law and design, registered investment companies are required to pay out 95% of their realized dividends and net capital gains to shareholders on an annual basis. Many of these distributions will occur during November and December. With that in mind, ‘tis the season!  

Many firms have started to publish estimates for what their respective mutual funds may distribute to shareholders in short- and long-term capital gains. Whether or not a capital gains distribution is considered short-term or long-term does not depend on how long you, as the investor, have held the fund; instead, it depends on how long the management firm owned the securities that produced the gain. Investors who hold funds with capital gains distributions in taxable accounts must report them as taxable income even if the money is reinvested in additional fund shares. In tax-advantaged accounts such as IRAs or 401(k)s, capital gains distributions are irrelevant as investors are not required to pay taxes on them as long as no withdrawals are made.

It can be frustrating to know that you may even face a tax bill on a fund with a negative return for the year. There are several reasons why funds may sell holdings and generate capital gains, including but not limited to:

  • Increased shareholder redemption activity during a down market. In order to fund these redemptions, funds may need to sell securities, which may, in turn, generate capital gains.

  • To reinvest the proceeds in a more attractive opportunity. 

  • Concerns about earnings growth (or if a stock has become fully valued in the manager’s opinion).

  • Corporate mergers and acquisitions also may result in a taxable sale of shares in the company being acquired. 

Investors concerned about tax exposure may want to consider investing in more tax-efficient equity funds. Such funds tend to be managed to limit capital gain distributions, when possible, by keeping holdings turnover low and harvesting losses to offset realized gains.

Capital gains distributions are a double-edged sword. The good news? The fact that a capital gain needs to be paid out means money has been made on the positions the manager has sold. Yay! The bad news is that the taxman wants to be paid. Boo! Do keep in mind that this is what you have us for, though. We are here to help manage around and alleviate the effect these capital gains distributions may have on you and your portfolio.

WHAT WE CAN DO TO MINIMIZE THE EFFECT OF CAPITAL GAINS DISTRIBUTIONS:

1. Be Conscientious

We exercise care when buying funds at the end of the year, which may mean holding off a couple of days or weeks to purchase a fund in your account in some cases. Why? We do this to avoid paying taxes on gains you didn’t earn. This also allows you to purchase shares at a lower NAV or Net Asset Value.

2. Harvest Losses

Throughout the year, we review accounts for potential loss harvesting opportunities (also known as Tax Loss Harvesting). Where available and when appropriate, we sell holdings we have identified with this potential to realize those losses and offset end of the year gain distributions from fund companies. *See our blog titled “Tax Loss Harvesting: The ‘Silver Lining’ in a Down Market” for more details on this strategy.

3. Be Strategic

We may sell a current investment before its ex-dividend date and purchase a replacement after the ex-dividend date to avoid receiving a company’s dividend payment. Dividends are treated as income by the IRS.

As always, there is a balance to be struck between income tax and prudent investment management, and we are always here to help distinguish.

Mallory Hunt is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She holds her Series 7, 63 and 65 Securities Licenses along with her Life, Accident & Health and Variable Annuities licenses.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, nor is it a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Every investor’s situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance, tax situation and time horizon before making any investment decision. Any opinions are those of Mallory Hunt and not necessarily those of Raymond James. For any specific tax matters, consult a tax professional.

Investors should carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of mutual funds before investing. The prospectus and summary prospectus contains this and other information about mutual funds. The prospectus and summary prospectus is available from your financial advisor and should be read carefully before investing.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Does the 4% Rule Still Make Sense?

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'4% rule' history

In 1994, financial advisor and academic William Bengen published one of the most popular and widely cited research papers titled: 'Determining Withdrawal Rates Using Historical Data' published in the Journal of Financial Planning. Through extensive research, Bengen found that retirees could safely spend about 4% of their retirement savings in the first year of retirement. In future years, they could adjust those distributions with inflation and maintain a high probability of never running out of money, assuming a 30-year retirement time frame. In his study, the assumed portfolio composition for a retiree was a conservative 50% stock (S&P 500) and 50% in bonds (intermediate term Treasuries).

Is the 4% rule still relevant today? 

Over the past several years, more and more consumer and industry publications have written articles stating 'the 4% rule could be dead' and that a lower distribution rate closer to 3% is now appropriate. In 2021, Morningstar published a research paper calling the 4% rule no longer feasible and proposing a 3.3% withdrawal rate. Just over 12 months later, the same researchers updated the study and withdrawal rate to 3.8%!

When I read these articles and studies, I was surprised that none of them referenced what I consider critically important statistics from Bengen's 4% rule that should highlight how conservative it truly is:

  • 96% of the time, clients who took out 4% of their portfolio each year (adjusted annually by inflation) over 30 years passed away with a portfolio balance that exceeded the value of their portfolio in the first year of retirement.

    • Ex. A couple with a $1,000,000 portfolio who adhered to the 4% rule over 30 years had a 96% chance of passing away with a portfolio value of over $1,000,000!

  • A client had a 50% chance of passing away with a portfolio value 1.6X the value of their portfolio in the first year of retirement.

    • Ex. A couple with a $1,000,000 portfolio who adhered to the 4% rule over 30 years (adjusted annually by inflation) had a 50% chance of passing away with a portfolio value of over $1,600,000!

We must remember that the 4% rule was developed by looking at the worst possible time frame for someone to retire (October of 1968 – a perfect storm for a terrible stock market and high inflation). As more articles and studies questioned if the 4% rule was still relevant today, considering current equity valuations, bond yields, and inflation, William Bengen was compelled to address this. Through additional diversification, Bengen now believes the appropriate withdrawal rate is actually between 4.5% - 4.7% – nearly 15% higher than his original rule of thumb!

Applying the 4% rule 

My continued takeaway with the 4% rule is that it is a great starting place when guiding clients through an appropriate retirement income strategy. Factors such as health status, life expectancy, evolving spending goals in retirement, etc., all play a vital role in how much an individual or family can draw from their portfolio now and in the future. As I always say – there are no black and white answers in financial planning; your story is unique, and so is your financial plan! In my next blog, I'll touch on other considerations I believe are important to your portfolio withdrawal strategy – stay tuned!

Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Nick specializes in tax-efficient retirement income and distribution planning for clients and serves as a trusted source for local and national media publications, including WXYZ, PBS, CNBC, MSN Money, Financial Planning Magazine and OnWallStreet.com.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Center for Financial Planning, Inc is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

One cannot invest directly in an index. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment for 2024 and other Fun Social Security Facts!

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It was recently announced that the 2024 Cost of Living Adjustment for those receiving Social Security will be 3.2%. This is a far cry from the 8.7% increase received for 2023, but inflation, although remaining a common topic of conversation, has slowed over the last twelve months. The Cost of Living increase is calculated based on data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, from October 1st, 2022, through September 30th, 2023.

The Social Security taxable wage base will increase in 2024 from $160,200 to $168,600. This means that employees will pay 6.2% of Social Security tax on the first $168,600 earned, which translates to $10,453 of Social Security tax. Employers match the employee amount with an equal contribution. The Medicare tax remains at 1.45% on all income, with an additional .9% surtax for individuals earning over $200,000 and married couples filing jointly who earn over $250,000. This income level at which the surtax comes into play has remained unchanged since 2013. 

For those collecting Social Security, the taxable portion of their benefit can range from 0%, 50%, or 85% based on income: 

  • For those filing “individual” and their combined income is between $25,000-$34,000, they may have to pay income tax on 50% of their benefits, and if more than $34,000, up to 85% of their benefits may be taxable.

  • For those filing a joint tax return whose combined income is between $32,000 and $44,000, they may have to pay income tax on up to 50% of their benefits, and if more than $44,000, up to 85% of their benefits may be taxable. 

For many, Social Security is one of the only forms of guaranteed fixed income that will rise over the course of retirement. The Senior Citizens League estimates, however, that Social Security benefits have lost approximately 33% of their buying power since the year 2000. This is why, when working on running retirement spending and safety projections, we factor an erosion of Social Security’s purchasing power into our client’s financial plans. If you have questions about your Social Security benefit or Medicare premiums, we are always here to help! 

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CSRIC™ is a Financial Planning Manager and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Preparing an Emergency Action Plan

Sandy Adams Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

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Unknowns are a part of all of our lives, and the potential for the big "unknowns" becomes more significant as we age.

It is a best practice to have a full aging plan in place as we go into our retirement years. This includes:

  • Where we might consider living as we age;

  • Where, how, and whom we would consider having care for us as we age if we need care;

  • How we will use our money, and whom it will go to once we are gone; and

  • Who will help us with all of this if we cannot manage things as we age

An aging plan should also include an Emergency Action Plan. What is this, you may ask? It is the minimum provisions you should have in place in case an unexpected event occurs. Even if you don't have a full aging plan in place, an Emergency Action Plan is crucial. So, what should be part of an Emergency Action Plan?

  • Name Advocates. By this, we mean having your Durable Power of Attorney in place for your financial affairs and your Patient Advocate Designation. If you have no one to name or if your family/friends' advocates need assistance, there are ways to have professional advocates in place to serve or assist (talk to your financial planner to discuss these options).

  • Document Your Important Information in Advance. This includes your financial and health information so that your advocates are prepared to serve on your behalf without missing a beat. Our Personal Record Keeping Document is an excellent place to start this process.

  • Communicate to Your Advocates that they have been named and verbally communicate your wishes. Your advocates can only make the best decisions for you and carry out your wishes if they (1) know they have been named your advocate and (2) are aware of the decisions you'd like to have made on your behalf.

Planning ahead is the best gift you can give yourself and your family. Having a full aging plan in place, but at a minimum, an Emergency Action Plan can put the pieces in place to allow for decisions to be made on your behalf in the way that you want them to. It can also provide resources for your best interests in your most critical time of need. If you need to put an Emergency Action Plan in place, ask your planner for assistance!

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of Sandra D. Adams and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Advanced Estate Strategies for Surviving Spouses

Matt Trujillo Contributed by: Matt Trujillo, CFP®

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You will need to consider the disposition of your assets at your death and any tax implications. Statistically speaking, women live longer than men. Wives will likely have the last word about the final disposition of all the assets accumulated during marriage. You'll want to consider whether these concepts and strategies apply to your specific circumstances.

Transfer Taxes

When you transfer your property during your lifetime or at your death, your transfers may be subject to federal gift tax, federal estate tax, and federal generation-skipping transfer (GST) tax. (The top estate and gift tax rate is 40%, and the GST tax rate is 40%.) Your transfers may also be subject to state taxes.

Federal Gift Tax

Gifts you make during your lifetime may be subject to federal gift tax. Not all gifts are subject to the tax, however. You can make annual tax-free gifts of up to $17,000 (in 2023) per recipient. Married couples can effectively make annual tax-free gifts of up to $34,000 (in 2023) per recipient. You can also make tax-free gifts for qualifying expenses paid directly to educational or medical services providers. And you can also make deductible transfers to your spouse and charity. Individuals can transfer $12,920,000 free of estate, gift, and GST tax during their lives or at death in 2023.  

Federal Estate Tax

Property you own at death is subject to federal estate tax. As with the gift tax, you can make deductible transfers to your spouse and charity. Again, up to $12,920,000 (in 2023) is protected from taxation.

Portability

The estate of someone who dies in 2011 or later can elect to transfer any unused applicable exclusion amount to their surviving spouse; this is called "portability". The surviving spouse can use this deceased spousal unused exclusion amount (DSUEA) and their own basic exclusion amount for federal gift and estate tax purposes. For example, if someone died in 2011 and the estate elected to transfer $5,000,000 of the unused exclusion to the surviving spouse, the surviving spouse effectively has an applicable exclusion amount of about $17,920,000 ($12,920,000 basic exclusion amount plus $5,000,000 DSUEA) to shelter transfers from federal gift or estate tax in 2023.

Federal Generation-Skipping Transfer (GST) Tax

The federal GST tax generally applies if you transfer property to someone two or more generations younger than you (for example, a grandchild). The GST tax may apply in addition to any gift or estate tax. Similar to the gift tax provisions above, annual exclusions and exclusions for qualifying educational and medical expenses are available for GST tax. You can protect up to $12,920,000 (in 2023) with the GST tax exemption.

Indexing for Inflation

The annual gift tax exclusion, the gift tax and estate tax basic exclusion amount, and the GST tax exemption are all indexed for inflation and may increase in future years.

Income Tax Basis

Generally, if you give property during your life, your basis (generally, what you paid for the property, with certain up or down adjustments) in the property for federal income tax purposes is carried over to the person who receives the gift. So, if you give your $1 million home (purchased for $50,000) to your brother, your $50,000 basis carries over to your brother — if he sells the house immediately, income tax will be due on the resulting gain.

In contrast, if you leave property to your heirs at death, they get a "stepped-up" (or "stepped-down") basis in the property equal to the property's fair market value at the time of your death. So, if the home you purchased for $50,000 is worth $1 million when you die, your heirs get the property with a basis of $1 million. If they sell the home for $1 million, they pay no federal income tax.

Lifetime Giving

Making gifts is a common estate planning strategy that can minimize transfer taxes. One way to do this is to take advantage of the annual gift tax exclusion, which lets you give up to $17,000 (in 2023) to as many individuals as you want, gift tax-free. As noted above, you can take advantage of several gift tax exclusions and deductions. In addition, when you gift property expected to appreciate, you remove the future appreciation from your taxable estate. In some cases, it may be beneficial to make taxable gifts to remove the gift tax from your taxable estate.

Trusts

There are a number of trusts used in estate planning. Here is a quick look at a few of them.

  • Revocable trust: You retain the right to change or revoke a revocable trust. A revocable trust can allow you to try out a trust, provide for management of your property in case of your incapacity, and avoid probate at your death.

  • Marital trusts: A marital trust is designed to qualify for the marital deduction. Typically, one spouse gives the other spouse an income interest for life, the right to access principal in certain circumstances, and the right to designate who receives the trust property at their death. In a QTIP variation, the spouse who created the trust can retain the right to control who ultimately receives the trust property when the other spouse dies. A marital trust is included in the spouse's gross estate with the income interest for life.

  • Credit shelter bypass trust: The first spouse to die creates a trust sheltered by their applicable exclusion amount. The surviving spouse may be given interests in the trust, but the interests are limited enough that the trust is not included in their gross estate.

  • Grantor retained annuity trust (GRAT): You have rights to a fixed stream of annuity payments for a number of years, after which the remainder passes to your beneficiaries, such as your children. Your gift of a remainder interest is discounted for gift tax purposes.

  • Charitable remainder unitrust (CRUT): You retain a stream of payments for a number of years (or for life), after which the remainder passes to charity. You receive a current charitable deduction for the gift of the remainder interest.

  • Charitable lead annuity trust (CLAT): A fixed stream of annuity payments benefits a charity for a number of years, after which the remainder passes to your noncharitable beneficiaries, such as your children. Your gift of a remainder interest is discounted for gift tax purposes.

Life Insurance

Life insurance plays a part in many estate plans. Life insurance may create the estate in a small estate and be the primary financial resource for your surviving family members. Life insurance can also provide liquidity for your estate, for example, by providing the cash to pay final expenses, outstanding debts, and taxes, so that other assets don't have to be liquidated to pay these expenses. Life insurance proceeds can generally be received income tax-free.

Life insurance you own on yourself will generally be included in your gross estate for federal estate tax purposes. However, it is possible to use an irrevocable life insurance trust (ILIT) to keep the life insurance proceeds out of your gross estate.

With an ILIT, you create an irrevocable trust that buys and owns the life insurance policy. You make cash gifts to the trust, which the trust uses to pay the policy premiums. (The trust beneficiaries are offered a limited period to withdraw the cash gifts.) If structured properly, the trust receives the life insurance proceeds when you die, is tax-free, and distributes the funds according to the terms of the trust.

As you can see, this area can get very complicated very quickly, and in many cases, the various approaches have pros and cons. If you are considering employing one of these strategies or want more information on how they work, I encourage you to contact a qualified estate planning attorney for further guidance.

Matthew Trujillo, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® A frequent blog contributor on topics related to financial planning and investment, he has more than a decade of industry experience.

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of Matt Trujillo, CFP®, and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Q3 2023 Investment Commentary

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The third quarter of the year has brought some downside volatility with it. While it can be concerning when opening your statement, it is important to remember that minor pullbacks are very normal throughout the year. August and September are, historically, the toughest months on average for markets, as shown by the chart below. The good news is that the last quarter of the year tends to be one of the strongest on average.

Over the past quarter, investor mood has shifted. The S&P 500 ended the quarter down 2.08%. A diversified portfolio ended the quarter down 2.63% if using a simple blended benchmark of (40% Barcap Aggregate Bond index, 40% S&P 500, and 20% MSCI EAFE International index). Quarters like this make it challenging to remember why you want to continue holding a diversified portfolio. Periods like that of 2000-2008 are a distant memory for most investors (and many have never experienced investing when U.S. markets and technology companies have struggled). If you dissect the returns of the S&P 500 year to date, you can see that most of the returns have come from the media dubbed “Magnificent Seven.” In reality, the remaining 493 companies in the S&P have contributed only about 2% of the positive 13% in year-to-date returns. The chart below shows how just these seven companies are responsible for most of the returns.

Source: Morningstar Direct

Maintaining a balanced approach to investing is important, as most of us are investing over a lifetime. While diversification may not always work over short periods of time, studies show it to be a successful strategy over the long term.

What contributed to volatility this quarter?

Higher intermediate and long-term interest rates have spelled trouble for equity valuations recently. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) did not raise rates in September but signaled that they are likely to raise one more time this year and are unlikely to cut rates in early 2024. This has caused longer-term bond rates to increase drastically over the summer (about 1%). We have continued to maintain our allocation to short-duration bonds, which has helped over that time period.

Higher interest rates contribute to equity volatility because investors view all asset classes through a risk/reward lens when determining where best to deploy money. When interest rates are low, investors are incentivized to reach for yield in equities as they pay an attractive dividend (more than treasury bonds were paying for a long time!). You also have the added upside potential of capital appreciation. When you can get interest above 5% in a money market or CD with extremely low risk, investors are less incentivized to invest money into equities, as most of the return needed to achieve long-term goals can be earned with little to no risk! Rates usually don’t stay elevated like this for very long. On average, the period between the last interest rate increase by the Fed and the first interest rate cut is nine months in historically similar periods. So don’t expect these high rates with no risk to stay around long.

Political brinksmanship is yet again holding the economy hostage to further both sides’ political agendas. The government averted a shutdown with only hours left but kicked the can down the road, so we may hear about this again in November. Like with the debt ceiling, we have been here before. The good news is, generally, shutdowns don’t coincide with recessions. There is a lot of noise and, usually, short-term volatility but not a longer-term impact on markets or the economy. The longest shutdown was 35 days at the end of 2018. While it created some temporary market fluctuation, it did not cause a larger economic issue. At that time, the economy contracted about .2% that quarter but got that back the following quarter because government employees get back pay once things open back up. Moody’s, the final of the big three debt ratings agencies to have the U.S. rated AAA, is questioning their AAA rating on U.S. government debt because of the behavior of the politicians. 

Economic Growth is slowing

While Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour is coming to a close and noticeably adding to the local GDP of the cities she performs in, the rest of the economy might be better described by her song “Death By A Thousand Cuts.”

The consumer is out of extra money (one can only buy so many $90 concert t-shirts). The chart below shows how families had stockpiled excess earnings and government transfer payments from the COVID shutdown but have spent this excess savings over the past two years.

The UAW strike will continue to impact numbers like the above chart. As the strike expands, so does the risk of increased shutdowns and layoffs spread throughout the economy. It remains to be seen how long the strike will continue and, thus, how much of a negative impact on GDP it will have. While this strike will have economic consequences, it is only one industry. While there could be spillover if it goes on long enough (for example, people may go out to eat less if they are on strike and not earning their full wages), the UAW strike shouldn’t single-handedly be the cause of a recession.

Home affordability will continue to be hurt by high-interest rates.

Student loan payments restart in October, pulling more money out of the consumer’s pocket.   

Jobs are strong, but job openings are pulling back.

These items, or something yet unknown, could be the tipping point for the economy to turn over into recession in early 2024. Most don’t realize we have already been in an earnings recession this year. This is classified as two or more quarters of contraction in earnings from the prior year. S&P 500 companies have experienced this as a whole this year. Equity markets are certainly spooked about this and are reacting accordingly now, even as the Fed tries to engineer a “soft landing.”

What is a soft landing?

In short, very rare. Ideally, the Fed will stifle GDP growth enough with higher rates to bring down inflation but not stifle so much that growth turns negative. Rather, it just slows down, avoiding a recession. They are counting on the strength of the labor market to remain, keeping the economy out of recession. Only time will tell if the Fed will need to keep rates higher for longer to put the inflation genie back in the bottle. They have come a long way in fighting inflation, as it was just a year ago that we were talking about 9% inflation, and now we are below 4%. The easy sources of inflation have been targeted and curbed (think supply chain shortages), so now it is time to let high interest rates work their magic throughout the economy.

Politics

The Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, was ousted in a 216-210 vote, with 8 Republicans joining the unified Democratic vote. Patrick McHenry is serving as the temporary speaker, who is well respected in the house and should provide good leadership for now. Since we are well into the congressional term, proceeding without a formal leader shouldn’t be too disruptive to normal functioning as committees have already been formed and a rules process adopted. Electing a new speaker will, however, take valuable time away from working on funding the government past the November 17th deadline.

The media coverage is starting to pick up for the election in 2024. Undoubtedly, headlines will only pick up later this year and throughout next year. While there is no shortage of negative headlines during an election year, they tend to be positive for markets. Markets don’t care which party controls the white house. I think many view Republicans as being more pro-business and assume that returns will be far better than when a Democrat holds the office, but that isn’t true. The S&P 500 has gone up regardless of who holds the office most of the time. This is because markets focus far more on what is going on with the economy than on politics. American companies find ways to be innovative and successful regardless of who is leading the country.    

While all of this noise can create market volatility, keeping your long-term goals in mind is more important than ever. We do not generate future forecasts; rather, we trust in the journey of financial planning and a disciplined investment strategy to get us through the more challenging times and stay the course. We appreciate the continued trust you place in us and look forward to serving your needs in the future.

Please don’t hesitate to contact us for any questions or conversations!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

Any opinions are those of the Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance is not a guarantee or a predictor of future results. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional.

Elements of a Roth Conversion

Kelsey Arvai Contributed by: Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA

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We’ve just entered Autumn, and the new year is around the corner, making this the ideal time to consider a Roth Individual retirement account (IRA) conversion to save on future taxes. A Roth Conversion is a financial maneuver that allows you to convert funds from a Traditional Individual Retirement Account (IRA) or pre-tax funds into a Roth IRA or future tax-free funds. There are several important considerations and potential tax implications.

Stated another way, a Roth Conversion involves taking some or all the funds from your Traditional IRA and moving them into a Roth IRA.

Tax Impact: Before doing a Roth Conversion, it’s crucial to understand the tax implications. The amount you convert will be added to your taxable income for the year the conversion occurs. In other words, you’ll need to pay income taxes on the converted amount in the year of the conversion. It’s important to consider what tax bracket you are in. You could pay a large upfront federal and state tax bill depending on the conversion size.

Additionally, when your adjusted gross income is boosted, you might pay higher Medicare Part B and Part D premiums or lose eligibility for other tax breaks, depending on your situation.

Future Tax Benefits: The primary benefit of a Roth Conversion is that once the money is in the Roth IRA, future qualified withdrawals (including earnings) are tax-free. Tax-free withdrawals are especially advantageous if you expect your tax rate in retirement to be higher. Typically, a partial or full Roth Conversion is more attractive in lower-earning years because there could be a smaller upfront tax liability. It may be beneficial for you to lock in lower rates now before they sunset in 2026 (the highest federal income tax bracket rate may move from 37% to 39.6% unless there are changes from Congress).

Timing: It’s important to consider your financial situation and whether you have the cash on hand to pay the taxes. If you choose to pay taxes from the converted fund, you may erode the long-term benefits of the conversion. A longer investing timeline is preferred because there’s more time for tax-free growth to offset the upfront cost of the conversion. Remember the five-year rule, which requires investors to wait five years before withdrawing converted balances without incurring a 10% penalty, with the timeline starting on January 1st of the year of the conversion. Without proper planning, you could deplete your savings or trigger an IRS penalty, so working with your Financial Advisor and Tax Advisor is essential. Contact us if you have questions or want to check if this strategy is a good fit!

Kelsey Arvai, CFP®, MBA is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She facilitates back office functions for clients.

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of Kelsey Arvai, MBA, CFP®, and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Another Way to Make Retirement Purposeful for You

Sandy Adams Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

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One of our Center values is Education and Personal Growth. Continuously learning and growing in our personal and professional lives is core to what we are and what we do. It is also something we incorporate into conversations with clients as they think about what might make their retirements meaningful to them. 

Beyond knowing that clients are financially prepared for their retirement, we want to help make the next stage of their lives as purposeful and satisfying as possible. Part of that is helping clients explore hobbies, volunteer activities, travel, and learning that will fulfill them and make their lives full.  

Locally, there are several universities that can help fulfill the need of those looking to continue to learn and grow personally in retirement. We have three universities in Michigan that have been named Age-Friendly Universities – Michigan State University, Eastern Michigan University, and Wayne State University. In particular, Wayne State University offers a 75% tuition reduction to students 60 or older and sponsors the Society of Active Retirees, a 1,200-member lifelong learning community. Its volunteer force includes 300 persons 50 and up, and more than half of its faculty and 40% of staff are 50 or older. The WSU Institute of Gerontology also has an extensive research portfolio on aging, having received $54 million in funding for aging issues since 2015.

If you are interested in learning more about Wayne State University’s Age-Friendly University benefits, click here. And if you are interested in learning more about the Society for Active Retirees, click hereIf you are interested in having a conversation about exploring other options for developing your own purposeful retirement, please reach out to one of our planners at The Center to start that conversation today.

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

Opinions expressed in the attached article are those of Sandra D. Adams, CFP® and are not necessarily those of Raymond James. Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc. Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.

Can I Avoid IRMAA Surcharges on Medicare Part B and Part D?

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In 2023, Medicare Part B premiums for 95% of Americans will be $164.90/mo. However, the other 5% will have to face what’s known as the Income Related Monthly Adjustment Amount or IRMAA and pay higher Part B and D premiums. Each year, the chart below is updated, and in most cases, premiums increase gradually with inflation, as do the income parameters associated with each premium tier.

Source: Medicare.gov

Receiving communication that you’re subject to IRMAA and facing higher Medicare premiums is never a pleasant notification. With proper planning, however, there are strategies to potentially avoid IRMAA both now and in the future.

But first, let’s do a quick refresher on the basics

Medicare bases your premium on your latest tax return filed with the IRS. For example, when your 2023 Part B and D premiums were determined (likely occurred in October/November 2022), Medicare used your 2021 tax return to track income. If you are married and your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) was over $194,000 in 2021 ($97,000 for single filers), you’re paying more for Part B and D premiums aka subject to IRMAA. Unlike how our tax brackets function, Medicare income thresholds are a true cliff. You could be $1 over the $194,000 threshold and that’s all it takes to increase your premiums for the year! As mentioned previously, your Part B and D premiums are based off of your Modified Adjusted Gross Income or MAGI. The calculation for MAGI is slightly different and unique from the typical Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) calculation as MAGI includes certain income “add back” items such as tax-free municipal bond interest. Simply put, while muni bond interest might function as tax-free income on your return, it does get factored into the equation when determining whether or not you’re subject to IRMAA.

Navigating IRMAA with Roth IRA conversion and portfolio income 

Given our historically low tax environment, Roth IRA conversions are as popular as ever. Current tax rates are set to expire in 2026, but this could occur sooner, depending on our political landscape. When a Roth conversion occurs, a client moves money from their Traditional IRA to a Roth IRA for future tax-free growth. When the funds are converted to the Roth, a taxable event occurs, and the funds converted are considered taxable in the year the conversion takes place. Because Roth IRA conversions add to your income for the year, it’s common for the conversion to be the root cause of an IRMAA if proper planning does not occur. What makes this even trickier is the two-year lookback period. So, for clients considering Roth conversions, the magic age to begin being cognizant of the Medicare income thresholds is not at age 65 when Medicare begins, but rather age 63 because it’s that year’s tax return that will ultimately determine your Medicare premiums at age 65! 

Now that there are no “do-overs” with Roth conversions (Roth conversion re-characterizations went away in 2018), our preference in most cases is to do Roth conversions in November or December for clients who are age 63 and older. By that time, we will have a clear picture of total income for the year. I can’t tell you how often we’ve seen situations where clients confidently believe their income will be a certain amount but ends up being much higher due to an unexpected income event.

Another way to navigate IRMAA is by being cognizant of income from after-tax investment/brokerage accounts. Things like capital gains, dividends, interest, etc., all factor into the MAGI calculation previously mentioned. Being intentional with the asset location of accounts can potentially help save thousands in Medicare premiums.

Ways to reduce income to potentially lower part B and D premiums

Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD) 

  • If you’re over 70 ½ and subject to Required Minimum Distributions (RMD), gifting funds from your IRA directly to a charity prevents income from hitting your tax return. This reduction in income could help shield you from IRMAA. 

Contributing to a tax-deductible retirement account such as a 401k, 403b, IRA, SEP-IRA, etc.

  • Depositing funds into one of these retirement accounts reduces MAGI and could help prevent IRMAA.

Deferring income into another year 

  • Whether it means drawing income from an after-tax investment account for cash flow needs or holding off on selling a stock that would create a capital gain towards year-end, being strategic with the timing of income generation could prove to be wise when navigating IRMAA. 

Accelerating business expenses to reduce income 

  • Small business owners who could be facing higher Medicare premiums might consider accelerating expenses in certain years, which in turn drives taxable income lower if they’re flirting with IRMAA. 

Putting IRMAA into perspective 

Higher Medicare premiums are essentially a form of additional tax, which can help us put things into perspective. For example, if a couple decides to do aggressive Roth IRA conversions to maximize the 22% tax bracket and MAGI ends up being $200,000, their federal tax bill will be approximately $30,000. This translates into an effective/average tax rate of 15% ($30,000 / $200,000). However, if you factor in the IRMAA, it will end up being about $1,700 total for the couple between the higher Part B and D premiums. This additional "tax" ends up only pushing the effective tax rate to 15.85% - less than a 1% increase! I highlight this not to trivialize a $1,700 additional cost for the year, as this is real money we're talking about here. That said, I do feel it's appropriate to zoom out a bit and maintain perspective on the big picture. If we forgo savvy planning opportunities to save a bit on Medicare premiums, we could end up costing ourselves much more down the line. However, not taking IRMAA into consideration is also a miss in our opinion. Like anything in investment and financial planning, a balanced approach is prudent when navigating IRMAA – there is never a "one size fits all" solution. 

Fighting back on IRMAA

If you've received notification that your Medicare Part B and D premiums are increasing due to IRMAA, there could be ways to reverse the decision. The most common situation is when a recent retiree starts Medicare and, in the latest tax return on file with the IRS, shows a much higher income level. Retirement is one example of what Medicare would consider a "life-changing event," in which case form SSA-44 can be completed, submitted with supporting documentation, and could lead to lower premiums. Other "life-changing events" would include:

  • Marriage

  • Divorce

  • Death of a spouse 

  • Work stoppage

  • Work reduction

  • Loss of income producing property 

  • Loss of pension income 

  • Employer settlement payment 

Medicare would not consider higher income in one given year due to a Roth IRA conversion or realizing a large capital gain a life-changing event that would warrant a reduction in premium. This highlights the importance of planning accordingly with these items.

If you disagree with Medicare's decision in determining your premiums, you have the ability to have a right to appeal by filing a "request for reconsideration" using form SSA-561-U2.

Conclusion

As you can see, the topic of IRMAA is enough to make anyone's head spin. To learn more, visit the Social Security Administration's website dedicated to this topic. Prudent planning around your Medicare premiums is just one example of much of the work we do for clients that extends well beyond managing investments that we believe add real value over time. 

If you or someone you care about is struggling with how to put all of these pieces together to achieve a favorable outcome, we are here to help. Our team of CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professionals offers a complimentary "second opinion meeting" to address your most pressing financial questions and concerns. In many cases, by the end of this 30-45 minute discussion, it will make sense to continue the conversation of possibly working together. Other times, it will not, but our team can assure you that you will hang up the phone walking away with questions answered and a plan moving forward. We look forward to the conversation!

Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Nick specializes in tax-efficient retirement income and distribution planning for clients and serves as a trusted source for local and national media publications, including WXYZ, PBS, CNBC, MSN Money, Financial Planning Magazine and OnWallStreet.com.

Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) I the U.S. which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board’s initial and ongoing certification requirements.

This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Nick Defenthaler, CFP®, RICP® and not necessarily those of Raymond James.

There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.

The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete.

Securities offered through Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Investment advisory services are offered through Center for Financial Planning, Inc. Center for Financial Planning, Inc. is not a registered broker/dealer and is independent of Raymond James Financial Services.