Trade War Winners and Losers

Contributed by: Jaclyn Jackson

Emboldened by NAFTA trade deal renegotiations with Mexico and Canada, car import taxation, and the U.S.-China trade war, protectionism is at the forefront of U.S. economic policy. As the world spotlight focuses on the U.S.-China trade war, many are watching to see how the battle between two of the largest world economies will play out, and how it will affect global economic interdependence.

For those keeping score, trade war winners and losers are as follows:

Winners

• Cheap Exporters (Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan) - Companies have opted to move distribution from China to Vietnam in attempt to bypass U.S. tariffs. As of August 2019, the U.S. imports 40% more from Vietnam than it did in 2018. Cheap exporters win with more opportunities to improve their gross domestic product (GDP). In the case of Vietnam, exports to the U.S. are 26% of their 2019 GDP.

• Brazil - China imports 60% of soybeans traded worldwide. After Beijing issued a retaliatory 25% duty on U.S. imports, Brazil exported two million additional metric tons of soybeans to China between October and November of 2018.

• Manufacturing Sector - Fabricated metals, machinery, and electronic instrument industries doubled jobs from 15,000 to 30,000 between May 2018 and May 2019. Not to mention, of the 2.6 million new jobs added since tariff announcements, 204,000 of them were in the manufacturing sector.

Losers

• Consumers - Americans may feel the pain in their wallets, with increased prices of products impacted by the trade war.

• European Union - Opposite cheap exporters, the European Union (EU) is at risk of worsened gross domestic product. Currently, exports create 40% of GDP. Twelve percent of that GDP is generated from the United States. As the EU’s largest exporter and economy, Germany is at risk of being hit hardest.

Perspective Matters

Keep in mind that viewing the trade war through the lens of winners and losers is an oversimplification. The economic interconnectedness of globalization is quite complex. It’s no wonder many are scratching their heads when considering whether protectionist policies are helpful or harmful.

Also, the data tells conflicting stories. Case in point: the manufacturing industry. As explained above, the industry is experiencing domestic job growth, which would point to a benefit of protectionism. For balance, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only six of the 20 major manufacturing categories have grown faster since tariff threats began. The other 14 have been either consistent or done worse. Notably, textile, paper, and chemical industries slumped, because of steel or softwood lumber tariff retaliation. Vehicle, technology, heavy equipment, and agriculture companies have suffered a similar fate. What’s more, some industries have cut jobs because of rising production costs from tariffs. General Motors, for example, lost $1 billion in 2018 and projects additional costs of the same amount this year. As a result, they’ve closed plants, subsequently fueling a strike by 46,000 employees. The pain doesn’t stop there; GM’s major suppliers have also lost vital business.

Opportunity Knocks

No doubt, international equities have taken one on the chin, and protectionist policies have not helped. In fact, international markets have underperformed the S&P 500 over the last seven years. However, if we zoom out a bit, historically low international valuations may indicate an entry point for long-term investors. The diagram below reflects less than average valuations for developed markets, Europe, Japan, and emerging markets. While trade war headlines impact emerging markets most, valuations urge investors to review these spaces further for investing potential.

Source: FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reubers, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.

Additionally, looking at when international stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks between 1975 and 2015, we see a pattern; international and U.S. equity performance is generally cyclical. The data indicates that as the cyclical nature between U.S. stocks and international stocks shifts in favor of international stocks, long-term investors have a chance to recover the difference between current valuations and 25-year historical averages. It also punctuates the importance of portfolio diversification.

Chart: MSCI EAFE Index vs. S&P 500 Total Return Index. Source: FactSet, as of 12/31/15.

While it is unclear how protectionist policies will play out, and who will win or lose as a result, long-term trends must be considered. More importantly, investors must ask themselves whether protectionism will indefinitely deter international markets, or just force them to adapt and reimagine how world markets interact.

Jaclyn Jackson is a Portfolio Administrator at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She manages client portfolios and performs investment research.

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Jaclyn Jackson and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility.
Investing in emerging markets can be riskier than investing in well-established foreign markets. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss.
Investing in commodities is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Their markets are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising.

Third Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

As we enjoy fall, and the kids are excited for Halloween, the end of the year is right around the corner! Here is a summary of what occurred in markets over the past quarter, and what we think may come before year-end.

Executive Summary

1. It has been a strong quarter for U.S. equities, and the odds seem to be in our favor for this to continue, but a slowing economy and the trade war could, at any moment, derail growth.

2. Bond markets have offered a haven to the increased market volatility, and they have experienced above-average returns as the Federal Reserve (the Fed) has begun lowering rates this year. As markets have marched on, we have rebalanced and increased duration within bonds to more strongly offset market volatility (this area tends to zig when the markets zag).

3. Investors have been overly punitive to international markets.

4. Economic indicators continue to soften.

5. With impeachment possible, headlines will contribute to volatility, but conviction/removal of President Trump remains unlikely as this requires a two-thirds vote in the Senate.

6. At these historically low-interest rates, federal debt is now far more affordable to service than it was 20 years ago.

7. Remember that our portal offers a current view of your asset allocation and returns, and offers a vault to securely transfer documents to us! Also, search for us in the App Store under “Center for Financial Planning” for smartphone access to the portal.

U.S. Equity Markets

Historically, the third quarter of the year is the most difficult for the S&P 500. This is where the old saying, “Sell in May and Go Away” comes from.  Despite the increased volatility, the S&P 500 managed to make it through on a positive note, with the S&P 500 up 1.7%. For the year so far, the S&P 500 has been up a whopping 20.55%, far exceeding what most experts were calling for this year. With the markets up so much already this year, you may wonder, “Will they run out of steam?”.  A slowing economy and the trade war with China hold the potential to derail or boost returns on any given day, depending on how negotiations are going.

Interest rates

The clear winner for the quarter was bonds, as the increased volatility in U.S. equities sent investors into a more secure investment strategy, boosting the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index 2.27%. So far for the year, this index is up 8.52% as the Federal Reserve has completely reversed course from tightening monetary policy (raising interest rates) to loosening monetary policy (lowering interest rates).

Interest rate activity was at the forefront of the headlines for the quarter, especially in September. During the month, eight of the top 10 developed market central banks met to discuss interest rates. The ECB (European Central Bank) and the Federal Reserve here in the U.S. were the only two to reduce target policy rates, but several others are discussing rate cuts in the months ahead. Meanwhile, here in the U.S., policymakers are projecting a third rate cut this year. We believe this will be very dependent on developments in trade talks with China, market returns, as well as the growth outlook globally and here in the U.S.

Meanwhile, a large portion of the world’s sovereign debt has negative yields making our treasury rates still very attractive to buyers overseas. This also is pressuring rates downward. As markets have continued to climb, we have been rebalancing here and increasing duration within bonds to offset market volatility more strongly (higher duration bonds tend to perform more positively than short duration bonds during a stock market retreat).

International Equities

International markets have lagged U.S. markets again during this quarter. The MSCI EAFE Index was down 1.07% while year to date is up 12.8%. So, the disparity between international and U.S. returns continued to grow during the quarter. Much of this is due to stronger economic growth in the U.S. versus overseas. Brexit, trade wars, and a strong U.S. dollar also continue to plague international returns.

Indicators

Our economic indicators continue to soften. While slightly above half are still looking positive, a few are flashing red, and positive indicators continue to become less positive or grow at a slower rate. The manufacturing index is one area teetering on the brink of contraction, giving the lowest reading in 10 years, but technically still giving a positive signal. Here are some others:

Impeachment

The House of Representatives is once again gearing up to attempt impeachment proceedings. Impeachment is the process whereby the House of Representatives, through a simple majority vote, brings charges against a government official. After the government official is impeached, the process then moves to the Senate to try the accused. The Senate must pass its vote by a two-thirds majority. (Note: Republicans hold 53 seats, while Democrats hold 47.) If this happened, President Trump would be removed from the office, and the Vice President would take his place.

There is little in recent history to help us understand how markets would react here in the U.S. if this were to happen. Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998, and Richard Nixon resigned during his Impeachment proceedings, but was never actually impeached. Several unsuccessful attempts have been made to impeach Donald Trump, George W. Bush, and, yes, even Barack Obama. When Bill Clinton was impeached, markets were down in bear market territory (over 20% peak to trough on the S&P 500) for a short time before they rallied back. The Russian Ruble Crisis also occurred at the same time, so it is hard to say whether the impact to markets was solely due to the impeachment process.

While removal of the President seems unlikely, short-term volatility would probably occur during any period of uncertainty. This is one of the many reasons we maintain a diversified portfolio. If stocks retreat, our bond portfolios would likely perform well, and international investments may strengthen in the face of a weaker dollar. A diversified portfolio, with cash or cash equivalents set aside for short-term needs, is the most effective solution to an extremely rare event like this.

Federal Debt

We are often asked about this topic; it seems to be an ever-present concern. While attending a conference in late September, I listened to Blackstone’s Byron Wien, a 60-year veteran of the markets. He put some very long-term perspective around the Federal debt levels and interest rates. He has been hearing “we can’t pass this along to our grandchildren” for the entire 60 years he has been in the business. He won’t go so far as to say the ratio of debt to GDP doesn’t matter, but believes we must put it into perspective.

According to Byron, today, the combined debt of the U.S is $22 trillion, up almost four times from 20 years ago, when it stood at about $6 trillion. However, the blended interest rate the government pays to service this debt is only up about 25% over what the government paid 20 years ago. It now costs $430 billion annually to service debt at current interest rates. This blends out to be just a bit over 2%; whereas, 20 years ago, it cost about $360 billion to service debt at a blended interest rate of a little over 6%. In summary, it is only 25% more costly to service our debt than it was 20 years ago, even though the amount of debt has quadrupled. Wien said these low-interest rates are “an economic gift from God.”

Are you curious about how your asset allocation looks? Are you using our new client portal? Did you know this is a secure way to move documents back and forth and that our contact information is at your fingertips? If you are already using the portal and want a primer on how to navigate or a link to login, check out the new instructional video on our website’s Client Login page. If you aren’t using the login, and you are interested, please reach out so we can send you the link to activate it!

On behalf of everyone here at The Center, we hope you enjoy the end of the year and the many holidays to come!

Angela Palacios CFP®, AIF®
Partner
Director of Investments

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

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Source of return data: Morningstar Direct The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.

Even the Best Investors Lose Money

Contributed by: Nicholas Boguth

In an ideal financial planning universe, we would only invest in things that go up. We would never see our account values go down. We would never even see a negative number on our statements. Bonds would pay interest, and interest rates would be so stable that bond prices didn’t move. Stocks would pay dividends, and every company’s earnings would only grow.

Unfortunately for us, investing is not that simple. There is no growth without risk. Nothing, and I mean NOTHING, is guaranteed to appreciate. Even the world’s best investors lose money from time to time, but what makes them the best investors is how they react when those losses happen.

Let’s take a look at Warren Buffett, one of the most successful investors of all time, and how his stock has done compared to the S&P 500 (a collection of the 500 largest public U.S. companies) over the past 25 years. Is it all positive? Does he beat the S&P 500 every year? If he did lose to the S&P 500, was it close? Would you stick with him for the following year?

Data: Morningstar Direct. Total Return.

What stands out to you? Two things jumped out at me:

1. Both were negative five out of the past 25 years.
   Even one of the best investors in the world lost money the SAME number of times as the S&P 500.

2. Buffett returned less than the S&P 500 nine times, and one of those times was by more than 40%!
   If you looked at your statement and saw that your $10,000 turned into $8,000, while everyone who owned just the 500 biggest U.S. companies now had $12,000, would you stick with Buffett or would you switch investments?

Investing is hard because of risk. Investments depreciate or underperform for years at a time. You can’t avoid this fact. One thing you can avoid is making decisions that ultimately may be harmful to your goals, by having a plan in place for those years when investments aren’t going the way you’d like.

Don’t have a plan? We would be glad to help.

Nicholas Boguth is an Investment Research Associate at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® He performs investment research and assists with the management of client portfolios.

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Any opinions are those of Nicholas Boguth and not necessarily those of Raymond James. This material is being provided for illustration purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation of any investment mentioned. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. The S&P 500 index is comprised of approximately 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. It is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Women’s Leadership as an Investment Concept

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

REPOST

Did you know three of the five partners at The Center are women? We live the value of gender diversity in the ownership and leadership of our firm.

Women’s leadership can and should also be understood as an investment concept.

Many studies have shown that women bring a unique perspective to senior and executive management roles within firms. This “secret ingredient” adds profitability, better risk preparedness, more collaboration, and more innovation to companies. 

An emerging consensus recognizes that the status and roles of women may be an excellent clue to a company’s growth potential.

Despite this, a large wage gap persists between women and equivalent men in the workforce, and there’s very little gender diversity among senior management and corporate boards.

Many barriers affect female participation in management and the boardroom.

One of the most easily understood is time out of the workforce.

Women spend an average 12.6 years out of the workforce to care for children or parents, whereas men only spend an average of 10 months outside the workforce!

This pull between work and family responsibilities likely has a lot to do with the disparities that still exist. After reading Lean In by Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook, I discovered that barriers within ourselves also prevent women from climbing the corporate ladder. There are days when I long to be able to spend more time at home with my daughter, but I also recognize the importance of being the role model of a woman who is happy and successful in her career, as well as enjoying quality family time. My daughter also gains the benefit of seeing a father who is very engaged and shares the responsibilities of parenting, who is a real partner to me. This rhythm works for us. Finding your family’s own rhythm and peace is of utmost importance.

Sharing ideas and our own experiences is part of the solution. Another potential solution is using your investments to express your viewpoint with your dollars. If you would like to learn more, please contact your financial planner!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

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Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse the opinions or services of Sheryl Sandberg or Facebook. This material is being provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description, nor is it a recommendation. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss regardless of strategy selected. Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. owns the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® (with plaque design) and CFP® (with flame design) in the U.S., which it awards to individuals who successfully complete CFP Board's initial and ongoing certification requirements.

Mid-term Elections and the Market: 2018 Outcome

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Voting day came and went much as the markets had anticipated.  Democrats flipped the House of Representatives over to their control while the Senate maintained and even strengthened their republican majority.  From a legislative policy perspective, we expect the republican agenda to slow.  Mid-term election implications may include:

• The President can continue to act alone regarding trade policies but had bi-partisan support for cracking down on China’s trade and intellectual property practices anyway

• Democrats are going to scrutinize and investigate President Trump, his cabinet officials and executive actions…yes, even more!

• Any further tax cuts are unlikely

• Democrats will likely get to work on some infrastructure spending

• Affordable Care act will be strongly defended

While markets care about legislation and the far-reaching impact those decisions make, long-term markets are agnostic to election results. Information and how markets digest the information affect investment outcomes more than politics.  Frankly, markets do not really care which side is in control.  In fact, the new balance of power sets a similar stage for the strongest historical performance in the S&P 500 for a republican president.  Want to learn more, check out this blog, “Mid-Term Elections and the Market.”

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Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of RJFS. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Investing involves risk and investors may incur a profit or a loss. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

Mid-Term Elections and the Market

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®

Elections and the stock market are two topics prime for speculation.  The media will speculate on who will win elections, and then again speculate on how those outcomes will affect the markets!  With this double layer of uncertainty and recent market volatility, investors can be left with feelings of unease.  Currently the Republican president is backed by a Republican-led Congress; however, this year's midterm elections have the balance of power on the ballot.  35 Senate seats are up for grabs, and Democrats would need to gain two seats to take control.

Although there is no way to say how the markets will be affected by either outcome with certainty, history can help to keep us grounded.  The chart below shows us the average annual S&P 500 performance by the presidential party and the majority Congressional party.  Regardless of the power make-up or split, the index has averaged positive returns. A party split (i.e., Republican president and Democratic Congress or Democratic president and Republican Congress) has delivered better performance than when a single party controlled both branches of government.

The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.

The year following midterm elections has historically had the best stock returns of the president's four-year term, even when a president's party loses seats in Congress.  The last time the S&P 500 declined in the year after midterm elections was 1946, but, although a guide, history is not a fortune teller. 

We cannot control the election results or the market, but we can control our vote and how we handle our investments.As always, we preach sticking to your financial plan without making changes to your portfolio out of fear or uncertainty.Our team remains aware of the political and economic landscape, but your portfolio is always constructed with your long-term goals in mind.

Kali Hassinger, CFP® is an Associate Financial Planner at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.®

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Source: https://www.wsj.com/articles/midterms-are-a-boon-for-stocksno-matter-who-wins-1538645400 Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.

2018 Third Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Diversified portfolios continue their uphill battle as the U.S. Stock market continues to be one of the few sources of positive returns this year.  In August, the current bull market became the longest on record since World War II by avoiding a 20% drawdown during that time.  Recently, the equity markets fell sharply even though the near-term prospects for the economy remain strong, but there are concerns about the November election, trade policy disruptions, FED policy and labor market constraints. Increased volatility and see-sawing markets are likely to continue in the near term.

*annualized

Bonds have continued to be under the pressure of gradually rising interest rates.  Since December 2016, the Fed has raised short-term rates by .25% during 8 of the last 15 meetings.  The last time we experienced rising interest rates was 2004-2006.  During this period, the Fed raised short-term rates by .25% in 17 consecutive meetings in contrast!  This time, they are taking a far more measured pace trying to increase borrowing costs for businesses and consumers to keep the economy from overheating.

International and especially emerging markets are struggling the most this year due to trade war concerns and a strong U.S. dollar even though they were the darlings of 2017.

Trade War Tracking

Since the trade war is at the top of the headlines each day, I thought it would be interesting to share a scorecard.  The below chart shows the tariffs that are still only in the proposal state (diagonal lines) and tariffs that have been put into place. You can see that only a small amount had been implemented before September. On September 21st, the next $200 Billion of tariffs were put into place (China 301 Part 1).  These are tariffs on an extensive list of goods and will start at a 10% tariff, escalating to a 25% tariff in January 2019.  China retaliated by placing tariffs on another $60 Billion in U.S. goods.  This list was smaller and the amount of tariffs placed on them was lower than the market anticipated which is why we didn’t see any negative reactions from the stock market during this round.

While we are also actively negotiating trade policies with many countries, the focus and largest amount of potential tariffs are against Chinese imports.   According to the office of the U.S. Trade Representative “The United States will impose tariffs on…Chinese imports and take other actions in response to China’s policies that coerce American companies into transferring their technology and intellectual property to domestic Chinese Enterprises.  These policies bolster China’s stated intention of seizing economic leadership in advance technology as set forth in its industrial plans, such as ‘Made in China 2025.’”

While markets are more volatile this year seeming to be swayed by the latest tariff headline daily, local markets are still boasting 10.56%  returns on the S&P500 for the year through the end of September. This says to us that markets think this trade war is survivable and possibly even beneficial to the U.S.  While tariffs are generally a negative for an economy over the long-term, investors often, only see the short-term benefits these types of strong-arm policies can bring. 

The point of free trade is that each group of producers focus on what they are best at and can produce the most efficiently (also at the lowest price/best quality).They can then sell their products and use the money to purchase what they need from the most efficient producer.This process usually stretches your dollar the farthest when it comes to purchasing power.Tariffs place an additional tax on the consumer as they usually result in higher prices for us or reduced margins for companies (or a combination of the two).We don’t share the markets rosy outlook, as we believe this trade war will result, eventually, in inflation and supply chain disruptions.It takes time to ramp up production domestically of products that become too expensive to import.When companies face the uncertainty of what retaliatory actions are coming next, they are apprehensive to make the investments required to ramp up local production in the first place. 

Unemployment

We also have to consider that the unemployment rate is back to very low levels (blue line shows below 4% unemployment) and participations rates (gray bar) remain steady.  Where are we going to get all of the new workers required to start producing items locally rather than importing? 

We don’t think this is how Trump foresees the end game.  He hopes to force China to remove the tariffs they have historically imposed on our goods to put us on a level playing field of no tariffs, no subsidies and preventing intellectual property drain.  Whether he is right and China will be forced to come to the negotiation table remains to be seen.  Volatility should continue at slightly higher levels if this trade war continues to ramp up.

Politics

Mid-term elections are coming up, and that always puts politics at the top of everyone’s minds.  There is also fear of impeachment that we often hear from clients and how that could affect portfolios.  Impeachment is the process where the House of Representatives through a simple majority brings charges against a government official.  After the government official is impeached, the process then moves to the Senate to try the accused.  This must pass the Senate by a 2/3’s majority vote.  If this happened, President Trump would be removed from the office, and the Vice President would take his place. 

There is little to refer to in recent history to understand how markets would react here in the U.S. if this were to happen.  Bill Clinton was impeached in 1998, and Richard Nixon resigned during the Impeachment proceedings but was never actually impeached.  There have been recent unsuccessful attempts to impeach Donald Trump, George W. Bush, and, yes, even Barack Obama.  When Bill Clinton was impeached markets were down in bear market territory (over 20% peak to trough on the S&P 500) for a short time before it rallied back.  The Russian Ruble Crisis also occurred at the same time, so it is hard to say that the impact to markets was solely due to the impeachment process. So while President Trump likes to boast that the “Markets will crash and that everyone will be poor” if he were impeached that is likely not the case. 

While we don’t think this has a high likelihood of happening, if it did, short-term volatility would probably occur while there is uncertainty and this is one of the many reasons why we maintain a diversified portfolio.  If stocks retreated, it is likely that our bond portfolios would perform well and even a possibility that international investments would strengthen in the face of a weaker dollar.  We believe a diversified portfolio with short-term needs set aside in cash or cash equivalents is one of the most effective solutions to an extremely rare event like this.

While this bull market may be getting old, it is important to remember they do not simply die of old age; rather they are killed by recessions.The yield curve is getting dangerously close to inverting but has not, thus not signaling a recession…yet.We are keeping a close eye on the yield curve and trade war as these items could quickly spill us over into a risk of recession. Markets can breeze along seemingly unconcerned by these types of risk until they aren’t.When sentiment swings from optimistic to pessimistic, it can happen almost overnight.As a result, we continue to maintain that having a diversified portfolio is extremely important.We are actively taking advantage of rebalancing opportunities to make sure your portfolios are prepared.If you have any questions or would like to speak with us more on these topics, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us!

Thank you for your continued trust!

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®
Director of Investments
Financial Advisor, RJFS

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Indices are not available for direct investment. Any investor who attempts to mimic the performance of an index would incur fees and expenses which would reduce returns.

2018 2nd Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Helping our clients achieve their goals is truly a team effort here at The Center.  You may not have met or spoken to the investment team here at The Center, but we are an important resource leveraged to help you achieve your goals.  Watch the video below to learn more about the investment team and how we help you reach your financial planning destination!   We are always here to help so please don’t hesitate to reach out to us! 

Rebalancing

The investment team monitors and rebalances your portfolio, in addition to portfolio construction.  It is equally important to continue to monitor portfolios and their compliance with your investing preferences and objectives as it is to determine what the proper investments are.  Rebalancing is a key part of this process.  See our recent blog post on how to rebalance a portfolio to understand the reasons and mechanics behind the process.  The most important way to be successful is to get invested and stay invested.  Rebalancing your portfolio on occasion will help you stay the course for the long-term.

Market Update

The story has stayed much the same over the past quarter with trade tensions remaining center stage.  Volatility remains, while trade war talks have spilled over into action and interest rates continue to rise.  Synchronized global growth is slowing but is not yet slow; so, do not expect growth to immediately fall off the cliff from a peak to a trough. 

U.S. markets remain in consolidation mode after a strong 2017 as investors waffle between getting comfortable with the lower rate of growth while having a strong economic and earnings outlook.  The U.S. market ended the quarter on a higher note up 3.43% for the S&P 500 despite the ups and downs throughout the quarter with China and U.S. relations.  Despite being up as much as 6.6% and down as much as 4.4% throughout the year so far we are up 2.65% through the end of the second quarter for the S&P 500. 

Bond markets have continued to struggle with bonds giving back what they are earning via interest payments, and then some, as the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate bond index is down 1.6% year to date.  Interest rates continue to increase at a well-telegraphed pace by the Federal Reserve with two more increases expected this year. 

In contrast to the U.S. market, international markets are struggling for the year with the MSCI EAFE posting a -2.75% so far.  In stark contrast, domestic small company stocks are enjoying a nice tailwind from the corporate tax reform so far this year.  The Russell 2000 is posting a startling 7.6% return year-to-date, all of which occurred in the second quarter.

Inflation continues its slow creep back into our economy with wages slowly starting to increase.  Just as slowing growth in the economy is not yet slow, rising inflation is not high inflation.  We are still at very low levels of inflation when you look at the history of our domestic economy.  Our investment committee has decided to add an allocation to an inflation-focused real asset strategy.  We want to add exposure within the portfolios to a strategy that would have the potential to respond more favorably than the broad equity markets to rising inflation. 

Preview of exciting changes

The investment team has been working on some exciting developments for your experience.  We will soon have a “Center for Financial Planning, Inc®” app for your smartphone where you can view returns, asset allocation and even your probability of success for your financial plan.  This new portal will be available to all who are interested.  More information and training on how to set up and view information will be coming later this year so watch your inboxes!  As always, please feel free to reach out if you ever have any questions.

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,
Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®
Director of Investments
Financial Advisor 

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and no strategy can ensure success. The process of rebalancing may carry tax consequences. Raymond James and its advisors do not offer tax or legal advice. You should discuss any tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and strategic asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a market capitalization-weighted index, meaning the securities in the index are weighted according to the market size of each bond type. Most U.S. traded investment grade bonds are represented. Municipal bonds, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities are excluded, due to tax treatment issues. The index includes Treasury securities, Government agency bonds, Mortgage-backed bonds, Corporate bonds, and a small amount of foreign bonds traded in U.S. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) index is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of the international stock market. These international securities involve additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. The Russell 2000 index is an unmanaged index of small cap securities which generally involve greater risks. Inclusion of these indexes is for illustrative purposes only. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. Holding bonds to term allows redemption at par value. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and bond prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall and when interest rates fall, bond prices generally rise.

What are Time-Weighted and Dollar-Weighted Returns?

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Monitoring investment performance is pretty important.  It can help identify positive or negative investment decisions and help determine whether your investment goals are on track.  For many investors, reading investment performance statements can be very confusing.  Your rate of return on one statement may look different from another.  The truth is that those differences can largely be attributed to the way the rate of return is calculated.  There are two basic performance calculation methods: the time-weighted rate of return (TWRR) and dollar-weighted rate of return (DWRR).

Key Differences

Each method is designed to measure different scenarios.  The time-weighted rate of return calculation method (top of diagram) was originally developed so fund managers could measure the performance of their portfolios independent of an investor’s actions.  It isolates the manager’s specific performance from investor timing of contributions and withdrawals. TWRR depends only on the length of time money has been in the portfolio and not on the size of the investment – hence the term “time-weighted.”  Performance is broken down into smaller pieces when cash flows occur and then linked together so the cash flow itself doesn’t have an impact on the return calculated. This way if an investor were to make a large deposit halfway through the year, the performance of the second half of the year doesn’t hold more weight than the first half. The opposite would be true for withdrawals.

In contrast, the dollar-weighted rate of return calculation method (also referred to as money-weighted return) measures the size and timing of cash flows, in addition to the investment performance of the funds chosen by the investor. Periods in which more money is invested contribute more heavily to the overall return – hence the term “dollar-weighted.”  Investors are rewarded more for larger investments made during periods of greater price appreciation or penalized less for negative returns that occur when a lower amount of money is invested.  The internal rate of return is synonymous with the dollar-weighted rate of return, but the term is typically used in corporate finance to predict the rate of growth a project is expected to generate.  It is the rate of return that equates the present value of costs and benefits of an investment.  You often see internal rate of return calculations used for private equity investments or when determining the viability of investing in a project.

Which Method Should You Monitor?

Dollar-weighted returns can be thought of as investor-centric because they do not isolate the portfolio’s underlying performance from an investor’s luck and timing. This is what is shown on Raymond James statements because it is a more helpful representation of what the investor actually experienced during the time period.

The information contained in this blog does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of professionals of the Investment Department at The Center For Financial Planning, Inc. and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

2018 1st Quarter Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

Trade wars and tariffs have dominated the headlines over the past quarter. Volatility has increased for equity markets around the world because there are fears stemming from the possibility of a trade war.  To learn more about tariffs and what we think about how this could impact the markets click here.

The Federal Reserve (FED) raised rates as anticipated in March.  This is the first rate hike of the year.  There are two more rate hikes widely expected to come this year.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has been slightly ahead of what has been expected; so, this could hint at a faster rate hike path than anticipated.  Economists were expecting growth to come in at 2.7% for the 4th quarter and it came in at a revised 2.9%.  Good news for the economy as we are growing faster and seem to be on solid footing.  However, if the market thinks that the FED will start to raise rates faster in response to increased growth, this could negatively impact bond prices as their yields increase.  Both consumer spending and business investment have been strong.  Payroll taxes went down in February with the new tax reform which means we may have more money in our pockets, meaning we have the capacity, now, to spend even more.

The story is even better overseas as GDP growth has gone from mixed throughout the world (disappointing in most countries outside of the U.S. up until recently) to synchronized expansion.

Breaking a streak

The Dow Jones Industrials Average and the S&P 500 snapped an impressive nine-quarter streak of gains.  This has been the longest stretch of quarterly gains for the Dow for over two decades.  Prior long streaks were broken in 1997 (an 11 quarter rally for the Dow).  The S&P had a more recent impressive streak that also lasted nine quarters and was broken the first quarter of 2015.  Other markets including bonds and international were also down this quarter.  See the chart below for more details

The cash quandary

Have you noticed your money market or bank deposits rates spiking along with all of these rate hikes from the Federal Reserve?  If not, you aren’t alone.  Rates have continued to remain frustratingly low on our most liquid savings accounts.  While the FED has raised rates by .25% on six separate occasions since 2015, deposit rates have not moved much.  There are two likely reasons for this:

1. While the FED has raised short-term rates, long-term rates have not reacted as much. Since banks make money on the difference between the interest they charge on loans (which tend to be longer, think mortgages) and what they pay out in interest to their depositors, rates have stayed low for depositors. Banks have been unable to increase the rates they charge to loan individuals money and, therefore, they cannot raise the rates they pay on savings accounts.

2. Deposits at banks in small savings accounts are at an all-time high. This money tends to be steady even if the interest rate paid at the bank down the street is higher. So banks don’t have to raise the rates they pay to keep the assets. It is too much of a bother to close your account, withdraw the money, open a new account and deposit the money for a .1% boost in the interest rate.

Technology volatility

Technology stocks are catching headlines recently as Facebook had a breach of privacy and Apple and Alphabet suffer from fears of tightening regulation.  The recent darlings of the stock market suffer because investors are calling in to question all of these technology companies that gather our personal data to enhance our user experience.

Midterm Elections

While it is still early in the year, midterm elections are starting to heat up.  Democrats are out of power, and the midterm elections tend to favor the party that is out of power.  Currently, we have a strong economy, and that is a factor that can influence whether voters go out to the polls and for whom they vote. A stable economy tends to encourage the status quo vote. The increased stock market volatility could favor the party that is out of power, though.  While I’m not here to debate who will and won’t win, I am interested in how(or if) that could affect your portfolios.  Generally, it isn’t a good idea to make changes within a portfolio based on politics.  Politics are emotional, and it is rarely a good idea to mix these sensitive emotions with our investment dollars.  We generally recommend not to make any major changes to a portfolio driven solely by an upcoming election. 

In times of market distress including the areas outlined above that cause temporary volatility in markets, investors need to focus on the basics:

• sticking to a diversified portfolio

• maintaining appropriate cash reserves

• rebalancing

If you ever have any questions on these or other topics don’t hesitate to reach out to us!

On behalf of everyone here at The Center,

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®
Director of Investments
Financial Advisor

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is the Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® Angela specializes in Investment and Macro economic research. She is a frequent contributor The Center blog.

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dow-streak-quarterly-gains-risk-184351660.html https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/gim/protected/adv/insights/should-i-hold-cash The information contained in this commentary does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any opinions are those of the professionals at The Center and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expressions of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. This material is being provided for information purposes only. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Please note, changes in tax laws may occur at any time and could have a substantial impact upon each person's situation. While we are familiar with the tax provisions of the issues presented herein, as Financial Advisors of RJFS, we are not qualified to render advice on tax or legal matters. You should discuss tax or legal matters with the appropriate professional. Investments mentioned may not be suitable for all investors. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. The companies engaged in the communications and technology industries are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. The MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 22 developed nations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as “The Dow” is an index representing 30 stock of companies maintained and reviewed by the editors of the Wall Street Journal. The Russell 2000 Index measures the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000 Index, which represent approximately 8% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000 Index. The Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index is composed of fixed-rate, publicly issued, non-investment grade debt, is unmanaged, with dividends reinvested, and is not available for purchase. The index includes both corporate and non-corporate sectors. The corporate sectors are Industrial, Utility and Finance, which include both U.S. and non-U.S. corporations. The IA SBBI US IT Government Bond Index is an index created by Ibbotson Associates designed to track the total return of intermediate maturity US Treasury debt securities. Links are being provided for information purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any website or the collection or use of information regarding any website's users and/or members.