Should Some Of Your Money Be In Bonds?

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

The Center's Director of Investments Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® explains 3 reasons why you should own bonds.

Through thoughtful financial planning, The Center wants to make sure that you achieve your goals regardless of what markets are doing for short periods of time.  We are often asked why we would want to own bonds in a portfolio (especially now with interest rates at all-time lows!). While equity markets generally provide positive returns, there are still periods when they do not.

By their nature, stocks are better than bonds at providing investment returns as there is more risk involved in investing.  There is no promise to repay your principal or interest along the way.  However, while stocks might be better at providing total returns, bonds can provide returns more consistently because of these “promises”.  If we were only focused on investment return, our portfolio would reflect 100% stocks. However, for most investors it still makes sense to continue holding bonds…here are a few reasons why!

Reason #1: To support a withdrawal strategy

One of the worst-case scenarios could have been retiring right before the Great Recession (late 2007).  What if you had retired right before this scenario and needed to withdraw money from your portfolio even as markets corrected?  Owning bonds during times of stress means there is a bucket within your portfolio that you can live on – perhaps for extended periods of time if needed – without having to touch stock positions that are down (they can even provide funds to deploy into equities opportunistically or through routine rebalancing).  Using bonds as your source of income during this time (both the interest and selling bond positions) allows the equity positions a chance to rebound (which usually happens as we have experienced in the past). 

Reason #2: Less Downside Capture

If you capture less of the downside it usually won’t take you nearly as long to get back to your “break-even” or back to where your portfolio value started before equity markets correct.  The below chart does a great job of showing how this looked after the Great Recession.  It shows the dark blue line [a portfolio mix of 60% stock(S&P 500) and 40% bonds (Barclays US aggregate bond index)] recovered nearly a year and a half earlier than a portfolio holding just stock.

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

Reason #3: Better Investor Behavior

Never underestimate the shock of opening a statement and seeing a swift downturn in your nest egg!  An allocation to bonds can potentially really assist your portfolio in this aspect as shown by the chart above.  If you look at the February ’09 point on the chart and cover up everything to the right of that, ask yourself “Is the “green line” experience something you could shrug off and continue holding or even invest more at this point?”.  Now it is clear that you should have held on to your stock positions but in those moments back in 2009, we didn’t have the benefit of “hindsight” to lean on.

Current Events: What Do Bonds Have Going For Them Now?

JP Morgan Guide to the Markets

All that being said, bonds are in a unique position right now (although similar to where we stood 5 years ago before rates started to rise).  So what do bonds have going for them other than just how they behave as part of your overall return experience?  There are a few tailwinds out there for bonds.  For U.S.-based bonds, while interest rates are low in the U.S., they are still better than other countries with the exception of emerging markets and below investment grade issues.  This steadily attracts buyers of our debt supporting prices even at these low-interest rates.

Another point is that we are still in the midst of a pandemic, there could continue to be unanticipated economic impacts that affect markets unexpectedly.  The economy is pretty vulnerable right now and when we are vulnerable an unexpected shock (black swan event) could have a larger than expected impact on markets if it were to occur.  Remember these are events no one could see coming (like the pandemic itself!).  Right now it is a far easier decision to sell stock positions and rebalance into bonds while calmer markets are prevailing than in the midst of a downturn.  These markets are pricing everything to perfection, rates staying low, Federal reserve continuing with their bond-buying strategies, vaccine dosages being deployed without a hiccup, no more widespread shutdowns, another government stimulus package, etc.  Things don’t always go to plan so adding to bonds helps to insulate you against events that are out of our control.

Another caveat to this is the lower interest rates are, the fewer bonds tend to correlate with stocks.  Meaning when rates are lower the assistance they provide during equity market downturns should be improved.

The chart below provides the historical basis for this view. It shows for each month since 1926 the stock-bond correlation over the subsequent 120 months (orange line). The chart also plots for each month where the 10-year Treasury yield stood (blue line). Notice that the two data series tend to rise and fall in unison, with higher Treasury yields associated with higher stock-bond correlations over the subsequent decade.  It also shows that while the 10-year treasury rate stays below 4% their performance remains uncorrelated or negatively correlated which is exactly what we are hoping for in the event of equity market volatility.

What If The Markets’ Worst Fears Are Realized And Rates Increase Causing Bonds To Lose Value?

A bad year of performance for bonds is far different than for equities.  This decade has had some tough years for bond positions.  The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate bond index has experienced a negative performance calendar year in 2013 (-1.98%) and two years where returns were essentially flat (2015 up .48% and 2018 up .1%).  While it is hard to predict the path of interest rates over the coming year diversification within your bond portfolio will be important.  For example, shortening the duration of the bond portion of your portfolio may help alleviate some of the risks of interest rates rising (remember when interest rates rise bond prices tend to fall).

I hope this helps your understanding as to why we are interested in still owning bonds as a portion of your investment portfolio!  Please don’t hesitate to reach out with any questions you may have!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF® is a Partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

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This material is being provided for information purposes only. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Investing involves risk regardless of the strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that's generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. You cannot invest directly in any index. Bond prices and yields are subject to change based upon market conditions and availability. If bonds are sold prior to maturity, you may receive more or less than your initial investment. There is an inverse relationship between interest rate movements and fixed income prices. Generally, when interest rates rise, fixed income prices fall and when interest rates fall, fixed income prices rise.

Q4 2020 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Center Investment Department

Closing the books on an eventful 2020

I think we can all agree that 2020 has been unlike anything we have experienced before! If 2020 had a spokesperson, it would be Mayhem from the Allstate commercials. From disturbing scenes of social unrest and racism to a major pandemic, crazy devastating wildfires and an ongoing trade war, not to mention, murder hornets and a very eventful election there have been many reasons why this year has been astounding!

The pandemic has been truly heartbreaking for the average American and the economy, despite this, the S&P 500 ended 2020 with fantastic returns of nearly 18.5%. Again, we are experiencing a large disparity in returns between technology companies and “value” stocks as represented by the Russell 1000 value index, up only 2.8% for the year in stark contrast. Check out the below chart showing the returns of the various S&P 500 sectors for 2020.

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VIDEO: If you’d like to see our friendly faces...click to watch our commentary!

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During the last quarter of the year, Emerging Markets and Small company stocks staged a large comeback as investors’ risk appetite increased.

However, whatever party equity markets were having, the economy was not invited!

Economic Update

Efforts to resume business amid the pandemic were rewarded during the latter half of 2020. Reeling back from a historical low of -31.4% during the second quarter, real GDP was 33.4% in the third quarter of 2020. That is a substantial comeback, but still around 3.5% shy of where it was during the fourth quarter of 2019. In other words, GDP is headed in the right direction, but we still have some catch-up work to do for full economic recovery. October readings support positive momentum for 4Q20 numbers. However, the surging cases of coronavirus infections over the holiday season may reflect slower growth at the end of the quarter and into 1Q21.

While it's easy to confuse positive stock market returns with economic growth, they are quite different. We can see this in the context of employment. Thirty-four percent of the S&P 500’s growth in 2020 can be attributed to technology, yet the technology sector only represents 2% of the US labor market. On the other hand, government, agriculture and other services, which is almost 40% of the labor market, is not even represented in the S&P 500. Concisely put, US stock strength doesn’t necessarily represent strength in the economy.

Digging into unemployment numbers, the unemployment rate decreased slightly to 6.7% in November. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 245,000 during the same month. Note, this is the weakest pace of payroll increases since the start of the recovery, which reflects a larger challenge. While 56% of the jobs lost between February and April have come back, only about 7% of that comeback has happened since September. We’re witnessing how hard it has been to have business and job growth while maintaining measures created to prevent the spread of covid-19. Both are important, so future job growth is dependent on how we negotiate the two moving forward.

Finally, let’s talk about inflation. Headline CPI and core CPI rose 0.2% month on month in November. Year on year, headline CPI was 1.2% and core CPI was 1.6%. Headline and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were generally flat, at 1.1% and 1.4% year on year, respectively. Due to low energy prices and economic slack, inflation ended lower in 2020 than in 2019. However, 2021 may be a different story. With a vaccine-facilitated boost to economic activity, prices hit hardest by the pandemic (think sporting events, dining, concerts, hotel rates, airfare, rent) could strengthen. We’ll likely see depressed prices start to go up. Many suspect the Federal Reserve will recognize this inflation is based on temporary factors, and will not raise interest rates to compress it. We are keeping an eye on how things play out. Overall, 2021 could foster a low and rising inflation environment.

Other investment headlines: Tesla & Bitcoin

You may have noticed two headlines gaining a lot of attention in the 4th quarter from two of the most volatile investments seen in 2020: Tesla and Bitcoin. Tesla finally recorded its fourth consecutive profitable quarter in a row which prompted its entry into the S&P 500. This means that if you own any fund that tracks the index, you now own a piece of TSLA! Albeit a small piece, as it makes up about 1.5% of the index.

Bitcoin was also back making headlines as it broke past its previous high from late 2017 and rose above $28k per BTC by the end of the year. Is the digital currency a speculative asset with no value or the world currency of the future? That is yet to be decided, but as it currently stood at year-end its market cap was ~540B – about the same market cap as Berkshire Hathaway.

COVID-19

The COVID-19 pandemic took a turn for the worse during the 4th quarter of 2020. Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths all continued to climb, but December brought us a glimmer of hope as the FDA expedited the approval process for two vaccines to be distributed across the country. Governor Whitmer gave guidance for the prioritization in Michigan, and the first phase began in December with health care workers who have direct exposure to the virus receiving round 1 of the 2-round vaccine. All essential frontline workers will follow, starting first with those aged 75 and older, then ages 65-74 and adults ages 16-64 with underlying medical conditions, finishing up with the rest of adults aged 16 and over. Click here for more details. We hope that these vaccines are a light at the end of the tunnel, and wish you all health and happiness going into the New Year.

Government Update

The $900 billion fiscal stimulus act continued to face headwinds in the final hour as President Trump changed his stance on the support to families. He called for an increase to the prior negotiated $600 stimulus payments to $2,000. The House narrowly voted in favor of this package and the change, only to be met by resistance in the Republican-led Senate. Voting on this was delayed resulting in $600 stimulus payments getting issued.

The package includes new funding for:

• Small businesses with an expansion to the PPP program highlights including:

  • Guaranteed funding for first-time applications

  • Second loans with more expansive forgivable uses

  • Easier forgiveness process for loans under $150,000

  • Clarification that businesses can still deduct the (otherwise deductible) expenses of funds paid with this loan

  • Excludes publically traded companies and a business must demonstrate a 25% drop in revenue or more from 2019

• The second round of individual checks for individuals and families with phase-out starting at $75,000 of income. $600 per adult and child

• Extension of federal unemployment benefits including an additional $300 per week benefit to unemployed workers until March 14, 2021

• Moratorium on evictions through January 2021

• Various funding for state/local programs highlights including

  • $82 Billion to schools and colleges

  • $27 Billion to state highway, transit, rail and airports

  • $22 Billion to state healthcare funding

Restrictions placed on the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve (Fed) found itself amid the political battle of the stimulus package. It looks like the Fed may have to discontinue at the end of 2020 and potentially not be able to restart programs under the same terms that were backed by CARES Act funding, including:

• Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility – loans to investment grade businesses experiencing dislocation due to the pandemic

• Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility – the ability for the Fed to purchase investment-grade corporate debt to facilities liquidity in the credit markets

• Municipal Liquidity Facility – allows the Fed to purchase short term bonds from certain states, counties and cities to ensure access to funds throughout the pandemic

• Main Street Lending Program – support for small and medium-sized business loans

• Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility- support for AAA bonds backed by assets such as student/auto/credit card loans backed by the Small Business Administration (SBA)

Fed Chair Powell stated that these lending programs can still be restarted using Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund but the effort to restrict this particular aspect of the Fed’s lending authority can be viewed as Congress stepping in and exerting oversight powers to limit how far the Fed can go in support of critical market functions. We will be watching the evolution of this debate and if the Fed’s communications become more restrained as a result. In the future, we may not be able to expect the Federal Reserve to step in and start buying secondary market issues to support prices.

The new Biden Administration

The run-off election held on January 5th in Georgia determined who holds the Senate. Democrats needed to win both of the Senate seats in Georgia to split the Senate 50-50. This meant that the democrat Vice President would be the tie-breaking vote giving a slight edge to the Democrats. This was the last major hurdle in understanding the makeup of the government for the next couple of years. This democratic advantage paves the way for a more ambitious President Biden legislative agenda. See our post-election update webinar for a summary of potential agenda items for the Biden administration. A shortlist includes President-Elect Biden’s proposed tax increases on corporations, income for those in the highest tax bracket, capital gains and estate taxes, aggressive health care changes, and the Green New Deal. While markets and the economy may favor party splits between the Presidency and Congress, an all-Democratic situation has still yielded positive outcomes for markets. The below chart shows that 27% of the time the Democrats have been in control and GDP growth has been at its best during these times and returns have been good as well.

In the short term, we could see some near-term weakness in market reaction but President Biden has announced that we can expect a third wave of stimulus payments of $2,000 (or at least the additional $1,400 they were hoping for in the second round) so this could outweigh the risks of market downside in the near term. This still requires a 60 vote in the Senate to pass and may take until March to do so.

There could be some potential impacts to investors that we will be watching closely. Most notable are:

• Corporate tax rate increases and a minimum tax for corporations seems to be the biggest potential impact to markets under a Democratic sweep

• Changes to capital gains tax rates and the preferential tax rate on qualified dividends (although could be limited to those with incomes over $1 Million) could affect individual investor behavior

It’s important to remember that many factors impact markets with politics making up a small portion of those factors!

Hopefully in 2021 Mayhem sticks with the commercials but regardless of what happens, we are here as your partners to get you through whatever is thrown our way and help you achieve your financial goals. Thank you for the trust you place in us.

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Sector Returns: Sectors are based on the GICX methodology. Return data are calculated by FactSet using constituents and weights as provided by Standard & Poor’s. Returns are cumulative total return for stated period, including reinvestment of dividends. The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Bitcoin issuers are not registered with the SEC, and the bitcoin marketplace is currently unregulated. The prominent underlying risk of using bitcoin as a medium of exchange is that it is not authorized or regulated by any central bank. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a very speculative investment and involves a high degree of risk. Investors must have the financial ability, sophistication/experience and willingness to bear the risks of an investment, and a potential total loss of their investment. Securities that have been classified as Bitcoin-related cannot be purchased or deposited in Raymond James client accounts. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Helping You Set Your Financial Goals For The New Year!

Contributed by: Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CDFA®

New beginnings provide the opportunity to reflect.  What choices or experiences got you to where you are today, and where do you want to go from here?  Whether you’re motivated by the New Year or adjusting your course due to circumstances outside of your control, goals provide the opportunity to set your intentions and determine an action plan.

Budgeting, saving, retirement, paying off debt, and investing are all common, and often reoccurring, resolutions and goals. Why reoccurring?  Because, as is human nature, it is too easy to set a goal but lose focus along the way.  That is why it’s so important to set sustainable goals and find a way to remain accountable.

Working with an outside party, like a financial planner, can help you define these attainable goals and, most importantly, keep you accountable.  When we make commitments to ourselves and share them with others, we are more likely to follow through.

When goals are written down and incorporated in a holistic financial plan, it becomes easier to track progress and remain committed throughout the year.  The financial planning process, when executed correctly, integrates and coordinates your resources (assets and income) with your goals and objectives. As you go through this process, you will feel more organized, focused, and motivated. Your financial plan should incorporate the following (when applicable):

• Goal identification and clarification (you’re here now!)

• Developing your Net Worth Statement

• Preparing cash flow estimates

• Comprehensive investment management and ongoing monitoring of investments

• Financial independence and retirement income analysis

• Analysis of income tax returns and strategies designed to help decrease tax liability

• Review of risk management areas such as life insurance, disability, long term care, and property & casualty insurance

• College funding goals for children or grandchildren

• Estate and charitable giving strategies

As you reach one goal, new ones can emerge, and working with a financial planner can help you navigate life’s many financial stages. When you’re setting and working toward your objectives, don’t hesitate to reach out and share them with your trusted financial planner!  If you aren’t working with anyone yet, it’s never too late to start!  

Kali Hassinger, CFP®, CDFA®, is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She has more than a decade of financial planning and insurance industry experience.

Active Or Passive Management, How Do We Decide?

Contributed by: Abigail Fischer

Let’s begin with a refresher course! What is active and passive management?

Usually, a passive management strategy closely mirrors the performance of large indexes and benchmarks. Whereas, investment professionals hand-pick securities in an attempt to outperform or adjust the risk of those same indexes and benchmarks in an active management strategy.

Investment professionals who praise passive management strategies were further convinced of their validity when indexes and benchmarks outperformed the active management space, yet again for many asset categories and managers, in 2018 and 2019. One challenge active strategies must overcome is their fee. The fee for active management chips away at performance beyond benchmarks.

So why would you ever choose active management?

Active strategies are often perceived to be “advantageous” because of their agility to trade stocks or bonds as they see fit.  They may also be accountable to keep risk in line or lower than their peers or benchmarks which could be appropriate for many investors.

A Case Study Of Our Research

The Center’s Investment Department research on the fixed income space found an interesting correlation. Just as markets are cyclical, active management tends to outperform passive management at some very specific points in the economic cycle. The low-interest rate environment, along with the dislocations in the pricing of bonds encapsulating 2020 fixed income markets, diminishes passive investors’ success in the broad fixed income market. The chart below shows just how muted annualized returns, punctuated by very low yields now, have become in some of the largest fixed income categories on a more recent basis versus what occurred in the last decade; this environment has set the stage for active managers to shine.  When interest rates are low and bonds aren’t trading consistently across asset classes, a manager with flexibility is more likely, through careful research, to identify and exploit mispricing. When interest rates are so low, even small successes can contribute heavily to returns relative to benchmarks.

What does this mean for portfolios now?

When interest rates will increase is purely a guessing game, could be next month or next year. In the meantime, we strive to take advantage of the possibility that active fixed income managers can find risk-adjusted returns more favorable than passive management fixed income returns. While this is just an example of one asset class, the Center’s investment team applies this same theory in researching all asset classes.  This results in a dynamic mixture of both active and passive investment strategies in portfolios.  Have more questions?  Don’t hesitate to reach out!

Abigail Fischer is an Investment Research Associate and Investment Representative at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She gained invaluable knowledge as a Client Service Associate, giving her an edge as she transitions into her new role in the Investment Department.

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Views expressed are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James and are subject to change without notice. Information provided is general in nature, and is not a complete statement of all information necessary for making an investment decision, and is not a recommendation or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no assurance these trends will continue or that forecasts mentioned will occur. Investing always involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss. No investment strategy can guarantee success.

2 Easy Ways To Determine If Your 401k Is Too Aggressive

Contributed by: Matt Trujillo, CFP®

For the investor who’s unsure of how their retirement plan works…here are two easy ways to measure how aggressive or conservative your 401k is.

1. Determine your stock-to-bond ratio.

Most custodians offer a pie chart with this information. Login to your 401k account to view the percentage of your money that is invested in stocks and how much is in bonds. In general, it’s aggressive to invest 70% or more in stocks. Once you know your level of risk you should understand if you can handle the ups and downs of that risk emotionally, and also how much risk your long-term planning calls for. 

2. Check your balance at the end of each month.

For example, if an investor’s account jumped from $100K to $110K (10% growth in a month) then they probably have invested most of their money in stocks. This will feel great when things are going up, but that investor needs to be prepared to see some significant paper losses when we experience a downturn like what we just saw in March and April.

So, how can an investor strike a good balance? And when should an allocation change from aggressive to conservative?

As you get closer to taking distributions, it’s reasonable to scale back your stock exposure and move money into safe havens like highly rated corporate bonds and treasury bonds. I say “taking distributions” instead of “retirement” because your plan should be based on when distributions begin. Retirement is a type of distribution event, but not necessarily the only one.

However, if a client has most of their income needs satisfied from other sources and has the emotional appetite to handle the swings, I can see them continuing a more aggressive allocation even in retirement (70% or more in stocks). However, if a client is relying heavily on their portfolio then generally a more conservative allocation is recommended (50% or less in stocks).

Matthew Trujillo, CFP®, is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® A frequent blog contributor on topics related to financial planning and investment, he has more than a decade of industry experience.

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401(k) plans are long-term retirement savings vehicles. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Every investor's situation is unique and you should consider your investment goals, risk tolerance and time horizon before making any investment. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation.

Post-Election Market Update

11/11/2020 - Watch for market commentary from our Director of Investments, Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®. Let's take a close look at how the presidential election impacted the stock market.

Tune in for market commentary from our Director of Investments, Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®. Let's take a close look at how the presidential election is impa...

7 Ways The Planning Doesn't Stop When You Retire

Contributed by: Sandra Adams, CFP®

Most materials related to retirement planning are focused on “preparing for retirement” to help clients set goals and retire successfully. Does that mean when goals are met, the planning is done? In my work, there is often a feeling that once clients cross the retirement “finish line” it should be smooth sailing from a planning standpoint. Unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth. For many clients, post-retirement is likely when they’ll need the assistance of a planner the most!

Here are 7 planning post-retirement issues that might require the ongoing assistance of a financial advisor:

1. Retirement Income Planning 

An advisor can help you put together a year-by-year plan including income, resources, pensions, deferred compensation, Social Security, and investments.  The goal is to structure a tax-efficient strategy that is most beneficial to you.

2. Investments 

Once you are retired, a couple of things happen to make it even more important to keep an active eye on your investments: (1) You will probably begin withdrawing from investments and will likely need to manage the ongoing liquidity of at least a portion of your investment accounts and (2) You have an ongoing shorter time horizon and less tolerance for risk.

3. Social Security

It is likely that in pre-retirement planning you may have talked in generalities about what you might do with your Social Security and which strategy you might implement when you reached Social Security benefit age. However, once you reach retirement, the rubber hits the road and you need to navigate all of the available options and determine the best strategy for your situation – not necessarily something you want to do on your own without guidance.  

4. Health Insurance and Medicare

It’s a challenge for clients retiring before age 65 who have employers that don’t offer retiree healthcare. There’s often a significant expense surrounding retirement healthcare pre-Medicare.

For those under their employer healthcare, switching to Medicare is no small task – there are complications involved in “getting it right” by ensuring that clients are fully covered from an insurance standpoint once they get to retirement.  

5. Life Insurance and Long-Term Care Insurance

Life and long-term care insurances are items we hope to have in place pre-retirement. Especially since the cost and the ability to become insured becomes incredibly difficult the older one gets. However, maintaining these policies, understanding them, and having assistance once it comes time to draw on the benefits is quite another story.  

6. Estate and Multigenerational Planning

It makes sense for clients to manage their estate planning even after retirement and until the end of their lives. It’s the best way to ensure that their wealth is passed on to the next generation in the most efficient way possible. This is partly why we manage retirement income so close (account titling, beneficiaries, and estate documents). We also encourage families to document assets and have family conversations about their values and intentions for how they wish their wealth to be passed on. Many planners can help to structure and facilitate these kinds of conversations.

7. Planning for Aging

For many clients just entering retirement, one of their greatest challenges is how to help their now elderly parents manage the aging process. Like how to navigate the health care system? How to get the best care? How to determine the best place to live as they age? How best to pay for their care, especially if parents haven’t saved well enough for their retirement? How to avoid digging into your own retirement pockets to pay for your parents’ care? How to find the best resources in the community? And what questions to ask (since this is likely foreign territory for most)? 

Since humans are living longer lives, there will likely be an increased need and/or desire to plan. In an emergency, it could be difficult to make a decision uninformed. A planner can help you create a contingency plan for potential future health changes.

While it seems like the majority of materials, time, and energy of the financial planning world focuses on planning to reach retirement, there is so much still to do post-retirement. Perhaps as much OR MORE as there is pre-retirement. Having the help of a planner in post-retirement is likely something you might not realize you needed, but something you’ll certainly be glad you had.

Sandra Adams, CFP®, is a Partner and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® and holds a CeFT™ designation. She specializes in Elder Care Financial Planning and serves as a trusted source for national publications, including The Wall Street Journal, Research Magazine, and Journal of Financial Planning.

The Center's Complete Third Quarter 2020 Investment Commentary

Contributed by: Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®

The year 2020, unlike 20/20 eyesight, has brought investors everything but clarity when it comes to stock markets and the economy.

Watch the video below or read the complete summary for a recap of our thoughts and reflections on the year and what we are paying attention to in the near future.

As if normal volatility of an election year wasn’t enough, the Covid-19 pandemic continues to linger and cases are back on the rise since early September. There is massive uncertainty over the spread of the virus, vaccine trials, business solvency, Americans’ jobs, and government stimulus that will continue to weigh on stock prices.

Despite the volatility and uncertainty surrounding investors through the first three quarters of the year, the performance of some major asset classes remain positive. Large U.S. stocks have ridden the backs of technology and consumer discretionary stocks (or should I say Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN)?) bringing the S&P 500 to +5.57% through quarter-end (since 12/31/2019). U.S. bonds represented by the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index are up almost +6.8%, and gold is having a banner year up over +24%.  Not everything is rising though. International developed, emerging markets, and small-cap stocks remain in negative territory with three months of trading to go.

Apples are in season…

Our favorite Apple IOS14 update is the new home screen widgets. It is likely tempting to add the large widget to watch updates on the S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ performance with every phone notification throughout the day. We understand you watch these numbers too, particularly during the volatility of 2020. Simply watching index returns doesn’t tell the entire story though. In previous years, the largest 5 to 10 companies’ performance contributed to the S&P’s annual return much less than they have this year. As of September 30th, the top five most heavily weighted stocks within the S&P 500 year-to-date (YTD) performance was 35%, with the overall YTD S&P 500 (price return) at 4%. The 495 other companies included in the S&P 500 returned -3% collectively.

The domination in returns has come from household names such as Facebook, Amazon, Apple. Alphabet(Google) and Microsoft.  While many fear this rhymes with the technology bubble of 1999, these companies are in very different positions than they were at that time.  Heavy cash on the balance sheets and lower Price to Earnings ratios (P/E ratios) now versus then speak to some of these differences.

Politics and Pandemics too intertwined for comfort…

The headlines to watch during these final months of 2020 will be centered on two topics: the November election, and the Covid-19 pandemic. We’ll be watching both closely and constantly reviewing new information as it pertains (or doesn’t) to your financial plans.

One major source of uncertainty following the elections will be any potential new tax code, but there may be less to worry about than you’d think when it comes to potential changes. We are assuming a tight election, and, while we are not in the business of predicting elections, we can gain insight from the past when it comes to potential tax changes. If President Trump remains in office, we’d be looking at 4 more years of the same, but even if the Democratic Party sweeps the executive and legislative branches of government – it may be a tough sell to raise taxes amid a pandemic/recession. Despite a historically low tax environment, there are a lot of businesses that are already struggling and unemployment remains high. While unemployment is off of its record high near 15%, it is still sitting near a historically high measure of 7.9%. This does not favor tax increases. Looking back to when President Obama took office in ’09, we were coming out of the Great Financial Crisis and it took years before there were any significant tax hikes.

More political uncertainty: the Supreme Court justice nomination following the passing of Supreme Court Justice, Ruth Bader Ginsburg. The Senate is currently controlled by Republicans, and they are pushing to get President Trump’s nomination, Amy Coney Barrett, sworn in before the election. The only problem is, Covid-19 may get in the way of a Senate vote as well, with several key members testing positive for Covid-19. With President and First Lady Trump testing positive for the virus, Washington D.C. is on high-alert to protect the health and safety of our government officials. Uncertainty about when the Senate will be able to meet and continue the nomination process may cause some market volatility.

As always, we urge you to check out our blog where we have wrote on many of these topics repeatedly over the years. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes, and it has told us that staying the course despite ever-looming market uncertainty has paid off time and time again. This may feel even harder during an election year, but remember that history has shown political parties have no bearing on long-term stock performance. Now stay healthy, stay invested, and go vote!

Angela Palacios, CFP®, AIF®, is a partner and Director of Investments at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She chairs The Center Investment Committee and pens a quarterly Investment Commentary.

The foregoing information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, it is not a statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision, and it does not constitute a recommendation. Any opinions are those of the author, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected, including diversification and asset allocation. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market. The Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index is a broad-based flagship benchmark that measures the investment grade, US dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable bond market. Any opinions are those of Angela Palacios, and not necessarily those of Raymond James. Expression of opinion are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that these statement, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Individual investor’s results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Rebalancing a non-retirement account could be a taxable event that may increase your tax liability The forgoing is not a recommendation to buy or sell any individual security or any combination of securities. The companies engaged in the communications and technology industries are subject to fierce competition and their products and services may be subject to rapid obsolescence. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.

Are Your Employer Benefits Meeting Your Needs?

Contributed by: Robert Ingram, CFP®

Fall is upon us, but just around the corner is the 2021 Open Enrollment Period. The window to select next year’s benefits at your employer runs from Nov. 1st through Dec. 15th. In the past, you may not have given these selections much thought, but this year, the impact of COVID-19 may have you thinking about the many “What if...” situations. Like, “What happens if my family and I get sick?” or “What happens if I'm out of work for a long time?” Understanding your options helps ensure that you're taking full advantage of the insurance plans and other benefits. Here are 5 reasons you should review your benefits and coverages:

1. Do you have the right health insurance coverage?

Most employer health and wellness benefits have at least a couple of health insurance options, such as PPO or HMO plans. Today, available choices usually include a type of High Deductible Health Plan (HDHP) eligible for a Health Savings Account (HSA). With a higher deductible, you will be responsible for a greater amount of medical costs out-of-pocket before the insurance plan begins to pay (compared to a more traditional lower-deductible plan). In addition to the opportunity to contribute to an HSA, the higher deductible plans usually have lower premiums than plans with lower deductibles. However, you should focus on the total potential costs, including premiums, deductibles, co-pays, and annual out-of-pocket maximums. 

When deciding which plan makes the most sense, you would normally consider your health history and the services you might expect to use. Generally, the greater your expected medical costs each year, the more likely you benefit from a lower deductible plan. You also should consider how you want to manage your health care (are you comfortable staying within a specific network of doctors and hospitals, or do you want greater flexibility?). Some health plans, for example, will require higher co-pays for services provided outside of their direct network.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made it even more important to understand your coverage options and make decisions accordingly. Some questions to ask when evaluating insurance plans could include:

• If I get sick and need treatment, what restrictions does the plan have on services? What hospitals or outpatient facilities can I use?

• Are there any deductibles waivers for COVID-related services or office visits?

• How does prescription drug coverage handle any special treatments or therapeutics?

2. Do you need to add young adult children to your health insurance plan?

Under the Affordable Care Act, health plans that offer dependent child coverage must allow children to be covered under the parent’s family plan until they reach age 26. With the widespread disruptions in the economy, many young adults may have lost their employer coverage or face other cost-prohibitive options. 

On plans that cover dependents, you can add your child under age 26 to your plan as a dependent even if he or she:

• is not living with you

• is not financially dependent on you

• is married

• is eligible to enroll in their own insurance plan

3. Strengthen your life insurance and disability insurance protections.

Employer benefit plans offering life insurance typically provide a basic amount of coverage at no additional cost to you, such as an amount equal to your base salary. Many plans will allow you to purchase additional coverage (supplemental life insurance) up to a maximum dollar amount or a multiple of your salary, for example, up to five times your salary.  

Often there is additional spousal coverage you can purchase as well.

While the supplemental and spousal insurance has an extra cost that can increase as the employee/spouse ages, employer group insurance tends to be less costly than individual policies and can provide a good base of coverage. When considering your life insurance needs, here are some tips.

Many employers also provide a group disability insurance benefit. This can include short-term coverage (typically covering up to 90 or 180 days) and/or long-term disability (covering a specified number of years or up through a certain age such as 65). Disability benefits often cover a base percentage of income such as 50% or 60% of salary, many times at no cost with some plans offering supplemental coverage for an additional premium charge.   

As with the life insurance benefits, group disability may not completely replace your lost income, but it can provide a solid foundation of coverage that you should maximize.

4. Your retirement plan (401k, 403b, etc.) might need a tune-up.

Start with contributions to your account. 

• Are you contributing up to the maximum employer match, if offered? Take advantage of free money!

• Are you making the maximum annual contribution (elective deferral)? The basic limit was $19,500 in 2020.

• If you can save more after maximizing your elective deferrals, does your plan offer separate after-tax contributions? This could be a way to leverage additional Roth IRA conversion opportunities.

Review your investment allocation. Do you have the appropriate balance of stocks, bonds, cash, and other asset categories in your portfolio given your timeframe and tolerance for risk? After experiencing the plunging financial markets of March and the sharp rebound in the stock market through the summer, you may have concentrations in certain assets that are above or below your desired target. This could be a good time to rebalance your portfolio back to those targets.

5. Michigan’s auto insurance no-fault law changed in July.

Okay, while your auto insurance is probably not part of your employer group benefits, now would be a good time to review your auto insurance coverage along with your other benefits. 

Earlier this July, legislation went into effect here in Michigan that changed the no-fault insurance law. One of the main changes related to Personal Injury Protection (PIP) is the part covering medical bills and lost wages if you are injured in an accident. Residents can now select different levels of PIP, whereas Michigan law had previously required insurance covering unlimited medical benefits for the lifetime of the injured person. Read more about the Michigan insurance reform.

If your policy has been renewed since July 1st, you may have chosen a specific PIP level or continued a default option for unlimited coverage. Selecting a lower level of PIP can lower your premiums depending on the limit you choose. However, it's important to note that carrying a higher level of protection could still make sense for many people and could be worth the extra cost. 

Having a conversation with your insurance agent and financial advisor about the potential risks versus cost savings can help you decide if changes to your policy are appropriate. 

As always, if we can be a resource for you, please let us know. 

Robert Ingram, CFP®, is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® With more than 15 years of industry experience, he is a trusted source for local media outlets and frequent contributor to The Center’s “Money Centered” blog.

2 Reasons Why Your Investment Portfolio Needs Adjusting

Contributed by: Abigail Fischer

It’s historically proven, the age-old advice urging you to stick with your investment plan through thick and thin. The Center preaches this, especially during market volatility. But maybe your financial advisor has recently suggested making a change in your investment plan. How could this be? Well, there are two possible reasons: either your circumstances changed or new information emerged about the market.

1. Your circumstances changed

• Retiring in 2020 or the near future? Wow, what a way to end your career, and congratulations! There may be a case to make your portfolio more conservative so that when volatility hits, you see less downturn than you might in a more aggressive model. Read this if you’re concerned about your 401k balance fluctuation. 

• Big purchase ahead? Sticking with your investment plan is a long-term view. When you’ve set your sights on a making a big purchase soon, consider taking a portion of your portfolio to cash or a short-term fixed income fund.

• Your paycheck comes from your portfolio? Consider taking the next six months of expenses in cash or a short-term fixed-income fund so that when you hear market news, you can sleep soundly knowing your next portfolio paycheck will not be affected.

None of these apply but you’re unsure about your portfolio allocation? Read this.

2. New information about the market

• As interest rates fell in March, we saw a short-term opportunity to tactically overweight the Strategic Income portion of the Fixed Income category in some portfolio models. Generally, Strategic Income funds invest in high-yield bonds, emerging market debt, international bonds, asset, and mortgage-backed securities. This short term strategy was sought out by our Investment Committee as we aim to add value to our clients’ portfolios during market volatility. We closely tracked the Bank of America US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread and set a point where we would tactically switch the allocation back to short and long term fixed income funds. Here’s one of the charts we watched:

Ice Data Indices, LLC, ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread [BAMLH0A0HYM2], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2, August 28, 2020.

• The Investment Committee saw an opportunity in the gold market. Gold is primarily seen as a hedge against inflation risk within the US Market. As the Federal Reserve printed cash at a rapid pace in April 2020, the value of the US Dollar slipped and many investors flocked to gold as a hedging measure. Gold can also be seen as a consistent store of value during a choppy period of high unemployment and low business activity; its long-term value has steadily increased.

The fiduciary standard of seeking return while managing risk is our priority. A strong investment portfolio compliments a clear financial plan. As your circumstances change and the market gives us more information, we are committed to your personal financial goals within the financial planning process. As always, please contact your Center Financial Planner for advice on your specific situation.

Abigail Fischer is an Investment Research Associate and Investment Representative at Center for Financial Planning, Inc.® She gained invaluable knowledge as a Client Service Associate, giving her an edge as she transitions into her new role in the Investment Department.

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This market commentary is provided for information purposes only and is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any opinions are those of the author and not necessarily those of Raymond James. There is no guarantee that these statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Investing in commodities is generally considered speculative because of the significant potential for investment loss. Their markets are likely to be volatile and there may be sharp price fluctuations even during periods when prices overall are rising. Gold is subject to the special risks associated with investing in precious metals, including but not limited to: price may be subject to wide fluctuation; the market is relatively limited; the sources are concentrated in countries that have the potential for instability; and the market is unregulated.